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Thread: Covid-19 PSA

  1. #121
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    One fascinating dataset being created by Covid-19 is the effect of the shutdown on crime and non-Covid fatalities.

    For example adverse US events related to traffic are way, way down. Should we collectively re-evaluate the "costs" inherent with the pre-Covid life structure in light of this information and try to realize some of those "gains" as permanent even once Covid passes? Perhaps the opportunity for remote work should be strongly supported at a collective level wherever appropriate in order to alleviate some of those "costs" long term by realizing a permanent reduction in traffic (in addition to documenting increased traffic costs through endless roadway expansion).

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    I said contrast your experience in Thailand with their neighbor Indonesia.

    Responses are all over the map, even between neighboring countries (like they are with states here, to a lesser degree now). It's not just Sweden who is a variant.
    They expelled flights and so on from known COVID countries.. I go to Thailand yearly, this year that stood out: no italians/spanish, no Israel ppl. The bars was cleaned out compared to earier years....

    Even If I am Swedish with heritage and all..,I dont consider myself as a "Swede". I lived half my life abroad. and I dont enjoy the politics in Sweden currently, if currently can be a 20 year period.. a peaceful genoicide in practice combined with leftist-theories such as post modernism is in practice... covid19 eagerly cheering on!
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  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    One fascinating dataset being created by Covid-19 is the effect of the shutdown on crime and non-Covid fatalities.

    For example adverse US events related to traffic are way, way down. Should we collectively re-evaluate the "costs" inherent with the pre-Covid life structure in light of this information and try to realize some of those "gains" as permanent even once Covid passes? Perhaps the opportunity for remote work should be strongly supported at a collective level wherever appropriate in order to alleviate some of those "costs" long term by realizing a permanent reduction in traffic (in addition to documenting increased traffic costs through endless roadway expansion).
    I´ve actually been thinking of this alot since I work from home per normal this doesnt affect me personal but.... nowadays some ppl are forced to work from home instead of office due to etc etc.... perhaps this is some sort of test-balllon for a new frame?
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  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    Someone areosolizes Covid-19 in a room where you are wearing an N95...
    You mean like... coughing or sneezing?

    Yeah, like I said - the simple masks are not really there to protect the wearer. They are there to be responsible to others.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by LavidDynch View Post
    I´ve actually been thinking of this alot since I work from home per normal this doesnt affect me personal but.... nowadays some ppl are forced to work from home instead of office due to etc etc.... perhaps this is some sort of test-balllon for a new frame?
    Doesn't effect you yet, but that will likely change. Remote surveillance of workers and work will increase commensurate with the amount of work required to be done at home and as tech companies start piling into that space to enact surveillance policies it will only get worse.

    I'll expect before long I'll have to hack a new set of remote surveillance applications and techniques, which while probably doable, is going to be a pain if that becomes a hot growth market.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Dog View Post
    You mean like... coughing or sneezing?

    Yeah, like I said - the simple masks are not really there to protect the wearer. They are there to be responsible to others.
    Simple masks, like surgical ones, aren't similar to N95, and N95 masks are for protecting the wearer. They're aren't however, very effective with highly a aerosolized contaminant where the load needed to get through and cause infection can be exceedingly small.

  7. #127
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    Study on the use of heat to inactivate Covid-19.

    Evaluation of heating and chemical protocols for inactivating SARS-CoV-2

    Look like summer may not be the help everyone assumes it will be in tamping down the infections.

    One of Covid-19 origin theories is that one of the Wuhan research labs spread the bat-related virus unknowingly (not engineered, just studied). Even better, there was a SARS outbreak 16 years ago in Beijing when the Chinese improperly deactivated as batch of SARS virus and transferred it to the "low security diaharrhea research" facility. The deactivation failed and two researchers in the facility got infected with SARS.

    Rinse and repeat?

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    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    Doesn't effect you yet, but that will likely change. Remote surveillance of workers and work will increase commensurate with the amount of work required to be done at home and as tech companies start piling into that space to enact surveillance policies it will only get worse.

    I'll expect before long I'll have to hack a new set of remote surveillance applications and techniques, which while probably doable, is going to be a pain if that becomes a hot growth market.
    Maybe you, not me at the current state. Death and Taxes my friend...
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  9. #129

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    Well if it were 1985, we know who would save the World...


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    Quote Originally Posted by LeslieWest_GuitarGod View Post
    Well if it were 1985, we know who would save the World...

    ...

    I'm here to chew gum and bend paper clips - and I'm all out of gum...
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  11. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdbd3rd View Post
    I'm here to chew gum and bend paper clips - and I'm all out of gum...
    Haha that was of course McGuyver above... but yes STRANGELY similar resemblance to the HOT ROD... the ROWDY ONE... Roddy Piper. One of the all time greatest movie lines cdbd3rd!


    Last edited by LeslieWest_GuitarGod; 04-22-2020 at 01:10 AM.

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  12. #132
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    “Too much of anything is bad, but too much good whiskey is barely enough.” ~ Mark Twain

    .58002.

  13. #133
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    Well put, for those who only understand the lowest common denominator.

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    Based on the recent NYC studies, we're roughly at around .85-1% IFR (infection fatality rate).

    In addition to this, there also seems to be a significant long-term disability rate, maybe a number of times higher than IFR (kidney/heart/neuro damage). Nurses reporting patients going into ICU treatment, being taken off sedation, and just never waking up.

    I’m a critical care nurse working in a COVID ICU. I’ve practiced nursing in a variety of settings, from helping to run an Ebola Treatment Unit in Liberia to coordinating mass vaccination campaigns during the H1N1 pandemic. ...

    One thing that I feel is really missing from the public discussion about COVID is the surprisingly high rates of (likely) permanent disability among those who become critically ill.

    Most non-medical people seem to discuss outcomes as if they were a binary, rather than a spectrum; what percentage live, what percentage die. That binary is not reflective of the clinical realities we’re facing. I don’t think it’s terribly well understood why there’s such a high rate of organ damage among COVID patients, though there seems to be a developing consensus that microthrombotic complications play a big role. But whatever the cause, it’s important to understand this: while most COVID patients don’t need ICU care, a troublingly high number of those who do end up in kidney failure or with profound neurological deficits. Several patients at work have been off all sedation for almost a week, and show no signs of waking up — I doubt that they ever will. And people with kidney failure may need dialysis for life. When the discussion is limited to false binaries of deaths vs recoveries, these cases get left out of the dialogue.

    I’m a clinician, not a researcher. I don’t have hard data for you, on this particular matter. But you can bounce this off clinicians at any busy COVID unit in the world and I’m confident that they’ll tell you the same.
    I’m not going to speculate about the numbers, but I will say this. If you had a crystal ball, and you told me that when this was over the number of cases that lived but with severe and profound disability would be more than 5 times the number of people who died, I would not feel surprised by that prediction. And that’s not a trivial number.
    So arguably as high as ~5% for severe outcome, or as we say here, rolling a 1 on the d20.

  15. #135
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    So, just don't roll a "1"...

    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    I’m not going to speculate about the numbers
    I keep hearing "experts" get different meaning from "the numbers". And I keep seeing the same numbers spun in different ways, depending on the apparent agenda of those talking about them - to downplay, to sensationalize, to calm, to scare, to support, to undermine... whatever.

    And I've reached one clear conclusion - we - you, me, the "experts" - just don't know. ~Someone~ might, but who that is remains to be determined.

    6 months or 6 years from now, when the smoke clears and we get perspective, we'll see a pattern that makes sense. "Ah", we'll all say, "that all fits with what was happening back then." But right now, in the middle of it all, no one can see the true pattern. At least, no one who isn't being contradicted by someone equally believable.

    So... I'll continue to err on the side of over-caution, and keep in mind my friends who are over 60, or have diabetes, or asthma, or whatever. I don't care so much what the numbers are, so long as I can call my friends' phone numbers and talk to them then.

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Dog View Post
    So, just don't roll a "1"...


    I keep hearing "experts" get different meaning from "the numbers". And I keep seeing the same numbers spun in different ways, depending on the apparent agenda of those talking about them - to downplay, to sensationalize, to calm, to scare, to support, to undermine... whatever.

    And I've reached one clear conclusion - we - you, me, the "experts" - just don't know. ~Someone~ might, but who that is remains to be determined.

    6 months or 6 years from now, when the smoke clears and we get perspective, we'll see a pattern that makes sense. "Ah", we'll all say, "that all fits with what was happening back then." But right now, in the middle of it all, no one can see the true pattern. At least, no one who isn't being contradicted by someone equally believable.

    So... I'll continue to err on the side of over-caution, and keep in mind my friends who are over 60, or have diabetes, or asthma, or whatever. I don't care so much what the numbers are, so long as I can call my friends' phone numbers and talk to them then.
    Usually I tap out when someone tries to infer meaning in the purposes of requiring eyeballs for commercial sustenance. You and I can decide meaning for ourselves, it is somewhat relative to each of our standings, but that said, proper use of statistical methods is still proper use of statistical methods. Failure to pass basic statistics smell test is still failure. No one should be believed on this, read the math (it's all available what has been collected thus far), then make the decision what that math means for oneself. Many of the people reporting on the subject have never been able to report correctly on medical topics ever, as my physician friends who do R&D have been dealing with this since time immemorial.

    The serology studies done in CA were completely flawed in methodology. The ones in NY were not. Of course a massive number of infections like NYC provides far greater opportunities for drawing accurate data than a tiny number of infections we have here in SoCal relative to population where the signal is largely lost in the everyday noise. The NYC data largely confirms the data and studies out of whole city infections in Italy's worst province. Now will the IFR drop is appropriate treatment is found, abolutely. To date they've made little progress on finding, but that doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibility. Can large cities protect themselves through extensive disease surveillance and contact tracing, sure, Seoul is doing exactly that.

    Untrammeled, ineffectively treated or totally untreated, it appears the IFR is right around ~1%. So infect 1M people, end up with about 10k dead, in excess of the average deaths we would expect during that time. Given that we in the US have ~85k dead, it would suggest we have a infection (1.45M) undercount of 4-5x what it actually is (.75-1% of US infected). Now this back of the envelope math lines up neatly with NYC/Italy and a number of other places where large infections essentially eliminated the problems of false positives and false negatives in testing through size along. Regardless of how the experts spin it, the math roughly is what it is. If I only know a handful of people, yes, odds might be the virus essentially never comes more than 3 degrees from me at this juncture, however I've friends and business associates all over the globe. One employee's younger friend here in LA already died, another longtime friend had his good friend in TN survive it on a ventilator but now cannot pass two consecutive negative tests for the virus having been released weeks ago, another a woman I know grandmother died from it early on in the UK outbreak and she's been suffering from it for weeks now, in addition to my numerous friends in NYC who either have people in their condo buildings that have it, or medical staff in their buildings dealing with it. Now these are all anecdotal, but the occurrence rate within my wide circle isn't out of line with the numbers I listed above.

    The 1918 flu took about 2-3 years to march through the global population. Of course travel was more localized then vs now, so the question is less, what number does one roll vs when does one take the roll. Each day I don't roll, the likelihood odds an effective treatment or vaccine is found increases and the IFR drops accordingly, or we could all decide to roll at once and see who makes it.

    My expectation is, and has been really since mid-January when my contacts in China started shutting down, that this virus marches through the world's population over the course of a couple years culling a good many people, possibly as high as 1% over the entire course of the pandemic. I'd like to believe perhaps some orthogonal idea will be discovered to solve it, but we've failed every gate check thus far and I see few signs we won't continue to fail. Do I feel like different decisions could have affected a different outcome. I mean, even if it did, does it matter now? You fight the war with the human race you have, not the one you don't.

    Pragmatism, especially in business, says prepare for the worst while working towards the best. That's likely where we are now except the gap between worst and best may end up being far more narrow than we think.
    Last edited by myliftkk_v2; 05-15-2020 at 04:32 PM.

  17. #137
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    “Too much of anything is bad, but too much good whiskey is barely enough.” ~ Mark Twain

    .58002.

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