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  1. #1
    Community Member Clemeit's Avatar
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    Default Concurrent Population and LFM Trends for the Month of December 2019

    <--- November 2019 Navigate January 2020 --->

    These graphs only refer to the concurrent player and LFM count of Thelanis for the month of December 2019.
    You are welcome to reference, link to, or copy these graphs for your own purposes.
    To save room in this thread, please omit the graphs in any direct reply to this post.
    All times are in EST (-5 GMT at the time of recording).

    Concurrent* Players and LFMs* by Day for the Month of December
    Population and LFM trends for the month of December. The average player and LFM count for each day is displayed. Downtimes have been omitted from the data.
    The absolute* player count reached a peak of 358 on December 1 at 15:28 EST.
    The absolute LFM count reached a peak of 21 on December 14 at 16:08 EST.
    The average player count for the month was 184.4.
    The average LFM count for the month was 7.6.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/6HVapZ5.png
    Data: Link
    Data: Link
    Logins: DDOracle Snapshot


    Concurrent Players and LFMs by Time of Day for the Month of December
    Population and LFM trends for the month of December. The average player and LFM count for each hour of the day is displayed. Downtimes have been omitted from the data.
    The average player count reached a peak of 276.6 at 21:00 EST daily.
    The average LFM count reached a peak of 10.6 at 15:00 EST daily.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/PrzZW1F.png
    Data: Link


    Concurrent Players by Day of Week for the Month of December
    Population trends for the month of December. The average player count for each day of the week is displayed. Downtimes have been omitted from the data.
    The most populated day with an average concurrent player count of 230.7 was Sunday.
    Weekdays* averaged 165.3 players.
    Weekends averaged 229.1 players.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/R5FUj0D.png
    Data: Link


    Concurrent LFMs by Day of Week for the Month of December
    LFM trends for the month of December. The average LFM count for each day of the week is displayed. Downtimes have been omitted from the data.
    The most social day with an average concurrent LFM count of 8.7 was Sunday.
    Weekdays averaged 7.2 LFMs.
    Weekends averaged 8.5 LFMs.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/mFSwTkJ.png
    Data: Link


    Special Report: Concurrent Players by Hour for Tuesday, December 24 through Monday, December 30
    Population trends for Tuesday, December 24 through Monday, December 30. The average player count for each hour is displayed. A link to a snapshot of DDOracle for this time period is included for comparison.
    The average player count for the week reached a peak of 332.3 on December 30 at 20:00 EST.
    The average player count for the week was 196.8.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/8oVaLqS.png
    Logins: DDOracle Snapshot


    Special Report: Concurrent Players by Minute for Tuesday, December 31
    Population trends for Tuesday, December 31. The absolute player count for each minute is displayed.
    The absolute player count during this time reached a peak of 301 on December 31 at 21:13 EST.
    The average player count during this time was 182.1.


    Image: https://i.imgur.com/0Mr0I8Q.png
    Logins: DDOracle Snapshot


    This report is based on 8928 data points, collected on Thelanis over the course of 744 hours from the 'Who' tab.

    *Concurrent: operating or occurring at the same time. The concurrent player count is a measure of the number of players online at any given time. Not to be confused with "active" which refers to the number of unique players that actively play the game. Not to be confused with login statistics, "logins", which are provided by DDOracle through DDO's APIs.
    *LFM: the number of posted LFMs. Not to be confused with "groups" which refers to the number of active groups or parties. This is the number of LFMs visible in the 'Grouping' panel. This is not the number of unique LFMs.
    *Absolute: the actual number of concurrent players or LFMs at any given time.
    *Weekdays: defined as any day Monday through Friday, inclusive.

    There are currently 9 servers: Argonnessen, Cannith, Ghallanda, Hardcore, Khyber, Orien, Sarlona, Thelanis, Wayfinder.
    Login data can be found at http://ddoracle.com/Traffic.html

    • I do not work for or with Standing Stone Games or Daybreak Games.
    • I am not affiliated with DDOracle. DDOracle was developed by Conklin Systems.
    • I have no plans to collect data on any other servers at this time.
    • I have no plans to share my exact methodology at this time.
    Last edited by Clemeit; 02-01-2020 at 12:31 PM.

  2. #2
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    Very nice work. How do you count the LFMs per hour, is it the average number of LFMs that happen to be up at each polling interval, or do you actually attempt to count the number of unique ones? E.g, it could be the same 5 LFMs up for an hour (or afternoon), or it could be that they come and go so that it's actually 30 different groups started in that hour.

  3. #3
    Community Member Gniewomir's Avatar
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    So average 184 players in december... Never more average than 250... Few hours per day with less than 100 players... Pretty sad.

  4. #4
    Community Member Clemeit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LurkingVeteran View Post
    Very nice work. How do you count the LFMs per hour, is it the average number of LFMs that happen to be up at each polling interval, or do you actually attempt to count the number of unique ones? E.g, it could be the same 5 LFMs up for an hour (or afternoon), or it could be that they come and go so that it's actually 30 different groups started in that hour.
    Thanks. It would be the average number, not the unique count.

  5. #5
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    Well that's really neat. Great presentation! Thanks for sharing.
    Last edited by Hogdog5; 01-02-2020 at 11:10 PM.

  6. #6
    Community Member Gniewomir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogdog5 View Post
    or if DDO was more transparent with the numbers
    If those numbers are even close to the data they have I'm 100% sure they won't be more transparent and if i were SSG worker i wouldn't share those numbers too.

  7. #7
    Community Member Kinerd's Avatar
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    this is great, thanks for posting

  8. #8
    Master Assassin nokowi's Avatar
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    Agreed. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

    Taking the additional data sources we have, Steam had 265 concurrent users for Dec 2019. If Thelanis is viewed as a typical server, we can say that steam accounted for about 20% of the active DDO player base in the month of December.


    Looking at Ironclads chart and analysis from 2011 to 2014 in post #89
    https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthrea...909&viewfull=1

    From 2011 to 2014, we can see that weekly logins per server were

    June 2011 215,000 per week per server, and dropping
    Dec 2011 - June 2012 steady at 125,000 per server
    June 2012 peaked at 180,000 per server in MOTU, dropping to 100,000 per week after a few months
    Sept 2012 - Feb 2013 steady at 100,00 until level cap of 28 (Shadowfell)
    Feb 2013 - June 2014 dropped to 80,000 after level cap of 28, with a temporary spike during the card event.
    Dec 2019 currently at 30,000 (multiply the per day data by 7 to get per week for each server)

    DDO largely fixed the issue where players with slow drives had to log in twice some time after the 2011-2014 data in the above chart.


    Conclusions:
    Steam numbers indicate that the current concurrent player base is roughly 25% of its peak MOTU value. If we give the current DDO Oracle numbers a multiplier of 1.75 due to double login comparison, we again see logins at 25% of their peak MOTU (or pre MOTU) value.

    The bad:
    DDO population appears to be a fraction (roughly 1/4) of what is what in 2011 era. Combine this with spreading the population out more, and the lack of LFM usage, and it can be more difficult to group with others.

    The good:
    There are indications DDO population is more steady at 1/4 of it's MOTU values. DDO population appears to have dropped about 10% a year from 2014 to present. Current population may be steady based on the steam data and DDO Oracle data. If DDO is making money off a smaller player base, they can likely remain profitable for some time.


    Data Analysis: These are rough numbers, with some changes being the double login issue mentioned earlier, people currently logging in to additional accounts for gold rolls, and people currently switching characters less often due to reapers emphasis on working on a main character in a static group.
    Last edited by nokowi; 01-02-2020 at 01:35 PM.
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  9. #9
    Community Member Clemeit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nokowi View Post
    snip
    Excellent data and analysis; thank you for sharing. That post had a really insightful take on the login stats.

    This is the sort of productive discussion I wanted to open. No bashing, just statistics and analysis. I believe that a well-informed community fosters forward thinking.

  10. #10
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    Considered doing this moving forward? I think because of the holidays the data might be a bit off. But I would think that it would be an overestimation if anything

  11. #11
    Founder Dark_Lord_Mary's Avatar
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    Fantastic work. thank you. There is however no way to verify the actual number of unique players due to the multiboxers that exist using multiple clients across multiple pcs; also players at various times may log off and on and off and on; they may too play other servers.

    Another factor that skews the data for DDO as a whole is that Thelanis is one of the slowest servers presently. I would like to compare these graphs against Cannith, which is the most active, during the same time.

    We all know the DDO player base is small. It is a niche game. I do hope that SSG wins the ability to make Dragonlance content for I believe that would draw many new players. The Dragonlance original trilogy is still very popular and it is a fantastic game setting and story. If SSG did it as well as they did Ravenloft (which they did a stellar job on) I feel it would be the biggest bump since they launch of the Menace of the Underdark.

    If SSG cannot for some reason gain Dragonlance, the next best option would be to re-visit the Underdark and launch an expansion based on the extremely popular RA Salvator novels with a Drow Iconic class.
    **Master of the Beyond**

  12. #12
    Founder Dark_Lord_Mary's Avatar
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    The solution for the LFM is to do an instance-based mega-server similar to World of Warcraft. Allow players from unique servers to queue into a meta server LFM and then click into a meta server dungeon with players from any server. It would require SSG to invest in the server tech to host this and coding to create the virtual space. It works very well for WoW and keeps players on dead servers able to LFM queue into groups and raids at any time of the day.
    **Master of the Beyond**

  13. #13
    Community Member Yamani's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogdog5 View Post
    Considered doing this moving forward? I think because of the holidays the data might be a bit off. But I would think that it would be an overestimation if anything
    Yea he should do more, players like me where gone for 1-2 weeks+ for the holidays. But still it's a nice showing of the data he gathered.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cordovan View Post
    Added even later: Ignore this add, I am the dumb.

  14. #14
    Community Member Gniewomir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark_Lord_Mary View Post

    We all know the DDO player base is small. It is a niche game. I do hope that SSG wins the ability to make Dragonlance content for I believe that would draw many new players. The Dragonlance original trilogy is still very popular and it is a fantastic game setting and story. If SSG did it as well as they did Ravenloft (which they did a stellar job on) I feel it would be the biggest bump since they launch of the Menace of the Underdark.

    If SSG cannot for some reason gain Dragonlance, the next best option would be to re-visit the Underdark and launch an expansion based on the extremely popular RA Salvator novels with a Drow Iconic class.
    It won't. It might bring back few old players, but new ones - no. Cause like you said, DDO is niche. D&D aswell. Most a of people below age of 25 have no idea what d&d is (at least in my country, maybe younglings in USA do know :P). Even me, after around 8 years with ddo, i've got no idea what dragonlance is, i never get far in pnp and i never were much interested into its lore. It's simply next generation, the one who never heard about PnP games. If nokowi is correct nothing since motu brought new players: neither shadowfell, ravenloft, sharn or modules like slave lords etc. And motu was actually the biggest change since 2011: introducing epic levels, introducing epic destinies, everything since then it's just adding more of the stuff that already exists in game.

    If the game community wants new content it's fine, i cannot judge anyones taste, i can only speak for myself. But in my opinion if we really want to see new players in ddo we have to stop thinking anyone should try this game cause its d&d based, it's d&d content etc, etc. There's no new quest that will bring new players who don't care is it d&d game or not. We need a game that will be good no matter what is it about. For the record - i'm not saying it should be less d&d, i'm saying it should be a good game despite being d&d based. We need a game that is good, unique, friendly for new players. Especially the last one, cause in my opinion being unfriendly to new players is something ddo is doing since i downloaded it first time in 2010. There's a lot of stuff that could convince people to play ddo if they'll have opportunity to, but also a lot of stuff that is driving new players mad enough to unistall the game.

  15. #15

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    Is there anyway to verify the accuracy if DDO oracle? Like to count the players manually or something? Not sure that is even possible unless some tech saavy person can take a snippet and upload screenies or something every half hour and eliminate repeats? No clue here. BTW the site included counts of bard/monk multiclasses...0

    DDO needs to figure out new player seduction
    Last edited by Saekee; 01-02-2020 at 08:26 PM.
    Wiki dashboard with some useful stealthplay links
    Proud Knight Templar of the Silver Legion, Cannith: Saekee (main; epic completionist); Parked Toons: Katwoemyn (10), Saelegion (4), Alitirala (4), Naerfelka (21)


  16. #16
    Master Assassin nokowi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gniewomir View Post
    It won't. It might bring back few old players, but new ones - no. Cause like you said, DDO is niche. D&D aswell. Most a of people below age of 25 have no idea what d&d is (at least in my country, maybe younglings in USA do know :P). Even me, after around 8 years with ddo, i've got no idea what dragonlance is, i never get far in pnp and i never were much interested into its lore. It's simply next generation, the one who never heard about PnP games. If nokowi is correct nothing since motu brought new players: neither shadowfell, ravenloft, sharn or modules like slave lords etc. And motu was actually the biggest change since 2011: introducing epic levels, introducing epic destinies, everything since then it's just adding more of the stuff that already exists in game.
    My take is that most of the spikes in logins in the 2011-2014 graph are probably times when players were updating their alts or playing more often, rather than a big influx of new players. This includes the MOTU spike, which you can see is still lower than the login rate 6 months earlier. The card event in 2014 demonstrates this trend nicely, as it would not have any reason to have brought in new players.

    I agree with you that new content or new classes are unlikely to increase the player base. Some attempt at creating a new or different experience would be needed. The hardcore server was an interesting attempt, but the hardcore crowd is really a subset of the players that desire a more interactive and interesting play experience. To attract new or returning players, they will have to design their changes with long term plans for a more engaging play experience for everyone, and limit design that simply picks winners and losers. That would start by listening to those who have been under served by playing in optimal groups at optimal efficiency, and instead focus on making that play experience more interesting, rather than balancing the game around efficiency and limiting or managing rewards.




    Quote Originally Posted by Gniewomir View Post
    If the game community wants new content it's fine, i cannot judge anyones taste, i can only speak for myself. But in my opinion if we really want to see new players in ddo we have to stop thinking anyone should try this game cause its d&d based, it's d&d content etc, etc. There's no new quest that will bring new players who don't care is it d&d game or not. We need a game that will be good no matter what is it about. For the record - i'm not saying it should be less d&d, i'm saying it should be a good game despite being d&d based. We need a game that is good, unique, friendly for new players. Especially the last one, cause in my opinion being unfriendly to new players is something ddo is doing since i downloaded it first time in 2010. There's a lot of stuff that could convince people to play ddo if they'll have opportunity to, but also a lot of stuff that is driving new players mad enough to unistall the game.
    I agree the game should be fun to play independent of D&D lore, and that capturing a D&D feeling is important. I enjoyed learning about The Witcher despite no prior knowledge, so there is no reason people can't come to a great game and learn about D&D lore.

    I have yet to see any focus on play experience, so I guess we will see what shows up in the 2020 producers letter.
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  17. #17
    Master Assassin nokowi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saekee View Post
    Is there anyway to verify the accuracy if DDO oracle? Like to count the players manually or something? Not sure that is even possible unless some tech saavy person can take a snippet and upload screenies or something every half hour and eliminate repeats? No clue here. BTW the site included counts of bard/monk multiclasses...0

    DDO needs to figure out new player seduction
    BigErky did some daily player counts that had similar magnitude. There is not really any reason to dispute the data, as we have no evidence of it being wrong. The trend is clear, regardless of absolute numbers. I think people in general like to overemphasize uncertainty when they don't like the data they are seeing. Anyone interested in more data could go take more data, but a single snapshot in time is just not valid for anything other than establishing a peak or low value.

    Ultimately people that understand decision making have to make decisions based on all the data they have, rather than rejecting data they don't approve of. The goal should be what result or conclusion best incorporates all of the data available.
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  18. #18
    Community Member Clemeit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saekee View Post
    Is there anyway to verify the accuracy if DDO oracle? Like to count the players manually or something? Not sure that is even possible unless some tech saavy person can take a snippet and upload screenies or something every half hour and eliminate repeats? No clue here. BTW the site included counts of bard/monk multiclasses...0

    DDO needs to figure out new player seduction
    It might be possible to beg DDO API access off of the developers and use it to run your own surveys. That's all DDOracle does. But considering their track record, I'd reckon that the data is pretty solid. I can't see any reason for them to skew their reports.

    As for those player reports the website presents, they should really be taken with a grain of salt and the acceptance that they're old. They have timestamps on them, for example: "Report run at April 20, 2013, 11:23 pm."

  19. #19
    Community Member Clemeit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark_Lord_Mary View Post
    snip
    Thank you for your kind words. I agree that multi-boxing skews the data. Unfortunately, without population data directly from SSG - something I very much doubt will happen - we can't know exactly to what extent. This method is in no way perfect, but it's about as close as we'll get for now.

    I'm glad you bring up Ravenloft, and that you share my admiration for it. That expansion was - to me anyway - the best to-date. The story, the content, the atmosphere... just an exceptional job. I remember the first time some friends and I walked into Death House and Fresh Baked Dreams. Wow.

    I'm also a proponent of cross-server grouping. I can't speak for World of Warcraft since I haven't personally played it, but I have played other MMOs in recent memory (FFXIV comes to mind) that allow for cross-world (server), instance-based grouping. Considering DDO is already heavily instanced, I think it makes the perfect candidate for that type of system. I can imagine that having roughly 7x more players to group with would be an exceptional stride in the right direction. At the very least it would be an improvement with little downside (assuming it doesn't increase lag).
    Last edited by Clemeit; 01-02-2020 at 11:05 PM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clemeit View Post
    Thank you for your kind words. I agree that multi-boxing skews the data. Unfortunately, without population data directly from SSG - something I very much doubt will happen - we can't know exactly to what extent. This method is in no way perfect, but it's about as close as we'll get for now.

    I'm glad you bring up Ravenloft, and that you share my admiration for it. That expansion was - to me anyway - the best to-date. The story, the content, the atmosphere... just an exceptional job. I remember the first time some friends and I walked into Death House and Fresh Baked Dreams. Wow.

    I'm also a proponent of cross-server grouping. I can't speak for World of Warcraft since I haven't personally played it, but I have played other MMOs in recent memory (FFXIV comes to mind) that allow for cross-world (server), instance-based grouping. Considering DDO is already heavily instanced, I think it makes the perfect candidate for that type of system. I can imagine that having roughly 7x more players to group with would be an exceptional stride in the right direction. At the very least it would be an improvement with little downside (assuming it doesn't increase lag).
    Yeah, I think there are really two separate lessons from this data:
    1) population is not great, but it's not super low either and pretty stable
    2) The number of LFMs up is pretty low. Unless they are just filling extremely fast (doubtful), this means it may take a lot of time to fund a group for all points on the level+difficulty range (as a tangent, it might be interesting to try to measure this separately).

    While apparently many current players are fine with soloing, it's not great for the MMO/D&D players who want to play with a group like MMO's/D&D are expected to be played. Reaper was really a double-edged sword by making grouping useful via added difficulty, but at the same time furthering the already extensive power creep grind via RXP to effectively split the community across 13 difficulty levels instead of 3. The power creep was the reason DDO was too easy to begin with, so it was a deeply flawed solution.
    Last edited by LurkingVeteran; 01-03-2020 at 07:29 AM.

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