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  1. #1
    Community Member shadowowl's Avatar
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    Default odds of getting a #9 or #10 card?

    anyone know what the odds are for getting each card? they dont' seem to be equal chances for each card #
    I have 1-8 not with some doubles but don't' know anyone personally with a 9 or 10.
    most of the good stuff involved those 2 cards so just wondering how hard they are going to be to get.

  2. #2
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    It certainly is not 1 in 100.

    I am going to guess one in 1000.


    which is a 0.1% chance.
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  3. #3
    Community Member redspecter23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowowl View Post
    anyone know what the odds are for getting each card? they dont' seem to be equal chances for each card #
    I have 1-8 not with some doubles but don't' know anyone personally with a 9 or 10.
    most of the good stuff involved those 2 cards so just wondering how hard they are going to be to get.
    I'm going to throw out a guess of a hidden 1d100 roll with the following results

    1-12 Card 1
    13-24 Card 2
    25-36 Card 3
    37-48 Card 4
    49-60 Card 5
    61-72 Card 6
    73-84 Card 7
    85-96 Card 8
    97-98 Card 9
    99-100 Card 10

    12% chance of any "common" card
    2% chance of any "rare" card
    24 out of 25 rolls will be common while one out of 25 will be rare. Did anyone actually get a "rare" in the starter box? Or were they all rolled? If they only come from rolls, the results we have with only one roll per die are deceiving right now.

    The numbers just work out nice and evenly this way and the distribution seems close. It wouldn't surprise me if the chance for 9 and 10 were actually lower than 2% each.
    Last edited by redspecter23; 03-12-2014 at 03:12 PM.
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  4. #4
    Community Member Nayus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowowl View Post
    anyone know what the odds are for getting each card? they dont' seem to be equal chances for each card #
    I have 1-8 not with some doubles but don't' know anyone personally with a 9 or 10.
    most of the good stuff involved those 2 cards so just wondering how hard they are going to be to get.
    Counting all servers I must have dropped 2~3 Tiamat (only 1 in my home server though) but couldn't get any trading randomly with people, in an instance I traded my Tiamat for a Grell and 100k, the other dude instantly turned me down when I said "Want to offer anything more?" even though he was high level, so I thought it wasn't all that rare.

    Lolth though... Isn't it some sort of "special" card like the Mournlander Dungeon Master thingy?
    Last edited by Nayus; 03-12-2014 at 03:17 PM.

  5. #5
    Bacon Queen MadCookieQueen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nayus View Post
    Counting all servers I must have dropped 2~3 Tiamat (only 1 in my home server though) but couldn't get any trading randomly with people, in an instance I traded my Tiamat and 100k for a Grell.

    Lolth though... Isn't it some sort of "special" card like the Mournlander Dungeon Master thingy?
    the Mournlander card is

    XII: Flail Snail


    You can get the XI: Dungeon Master by crunching 9 & 10 (I think...least that's what I remember reading)

  6. #6
    Community Member Cardtrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by redspecter23 View Post
    I'm going to throw out a guess of a hidden 1d100 roll with the following results

    1-12 Card 1
    13-24 Card 2
    25-36 Card 3
    37-48 Card 4
    49-60 Card 5
    61-72 Card 6
    73-84 Card 7
    85-96 Card 8
    97-98 Card 9
    99-100 Card 10

    12% chance of any "common" card
    2% chance of any "rare" card
    24 out of 25 rolls will be common while one out of 25 will be rare. Did anyone actually get a "rare" in the starter box? Or were they all rolled? If they only come from rolls, the results we have with only one roll per die are deceiving right now.

    The numbers just work out nice and evenly this way and the distribution seems close. It wouldn't surprise me if the chance for 9 and 10 were actually lower than 2% each.
    I agree with the idea, but don't think it's quite this distribution. I could be wrong, but Cards 1 and 2 seem less common than 3 through 8. Certainly nowhere near as rare 9 and 10, but rare.

    I've rolled the cards on all servers on my main (VIP) account and on a couple of servers on my secondary (premium) account. Have not received any IXs or Xs. Total of two Is and one II across all servers. Five or more of all other cards.
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  7. #7
    Community Member rest's Avatar
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    I got two #9 cards on 2 different servers. None on my home server, I'm afraid.

  8. #8
    Community Member brian14's Avatar
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    Adding up the posts on this thread, I see two 9's and four 10's out of total 256 cards.

    So, about 1 card out of 40-45 is a "rare"?
    "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

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  9. #9
    Community Member Turtlsdown's Avatar
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    One #10 card after +120 cards spread across servers.

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    This is where we are now. Ride the walrus, or drown in its wake
    Thanks.

  10. #10
    Community Member redspecter23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nayus View Post
    Counting all servers I must have dropped 2~3 Tiamat (only 1 in my home server though) but couldn't get any trading randomly with people, in an instance I traded my Tiamat for a Grell and 100k, the other dude instantly turned me down when I said "Want to offer anything more?" even though he was high level, so I thought it wasn't all that rare.

    Lolth though... Isn't it some sort of "special" card like the Mournlander Dungeon Master thingy?
    LOL! If I were trading someone a Tiamat for a Grell and 100k and they asked for more, I'd insta squelch them and drop trade. From what I'm seeing Tiamat is probably worth 30 or more "commons" easily. I'd trade 30 commons for a 9 or a 10 in a heartbeat if I had the chance. It might change in a few days as more cards are rolled but for now, they're just that rare.
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  11. #11
    Community Member brian14's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by redspecter23 View Post
    LOL! If I were trading someone a Tiamat for a Grell and 100k and they asked for more, I'd insta squelch them and drop trade. From what I'm seeing Tiamat is probably worth 30 or more "commons" easily. I'd trade 30 commons for a 9 or a 10 in a heartbeat if I had the chance. It might change in a few days as more cards are rolled but for now, they're just that rare.
    I think you got it backward. Nayus was trading away Tiamat, and he asked for something more than Grell+100K. And was refused. And traded anyway.

    I'd say Nayus is very generous.
    "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

    "Of course it is. Are YOU going to question beholder's artistic sense?"

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