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  1. #21
    Community Member bartharok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DethTrip View Post
    It's fixed. Just another scam with the intent to part you with your $$$ when you buy more astral shards imo.
    I do think that even a five year old could come up with a better scam.
    Dystopia = utopia achieved

  2. #22
    Community Member Theolin's Avatar
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    Now what I want to know is if I expect to roll less then 30, and often I do then:
    • Is that a self fulling prophecy
    • Is it me controlling the randomness
    • Are the dice really rigged

    Questions & Questions

    On a related not I have 95% change of UMD working on scrolls, about 1/2 the time I roll a set of 1's?
    And the first time I try scrolling after logging in is almost always a set of 1's to start the day.
    This only happens on one character the others don't seem to have this issue...hmmmm?????
    Last edited by Theolin; 03-04-2014 at 10:49 AM.

  3. #23
    The Hatchery DethTrip's Avatar
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    I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
    If you're having fun, then you're doing it right.

  4. #24
    The Hatchery Enoach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theolin View Post
    Now what I want to know is if I expect to roll less then 30, and often I do then:
    • Is that a self fulling prophecy
    • Is it me controlling the randomness
    • Are the dice really rigged

    Questions & Questions

    On a related not I have 95% change of UMD working on scrolls, about 1/2 the time I roll a set of 1's?
    And the first time I try scrolling after logging in is almost always a set of 1's to start the day.
    This only happens on one character the others don't seem to have this issue...hmmmm?????
    In PnP when that occurs we switch out our Dice for one of the other sets we bring (Usually over time a player can have 3+ sets of dice collected). In DDO under the Options you can also switch your dice - Try that see if maybe a different dice fixes the problem.

    It sounds a bit superstitious but for some reason people do tend to roll better.

  5. #25
    Community Member In_Like_Flynn's Avatar
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    Perceptions are not reality.
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    G h a l l a n d a ><(((°>

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by DethTrip View Post
    I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
    I'm sorry, I just don't understand what you mean here.

    You're saying that if you click right away its always a low roll so its rigged?
    Can you explain to me the logic that you see here?
    Its rigged to make you wait 5 mins to get a proper roll?
    Its rigged to give people with massive lag who can't click right away a better chance to win?
    Its rigged so that people with faster connections roll lower and then want to pay astral shards to win something that they're losing on when they roll anyway?

    I just fail to see what connection you're drawing.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by DethTrip View Post
    I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
    Proof?
    I've always done it immediately after logging in, my average roll appears to be ~60.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jasparion View Post
    For the bonus weekend I rolled all low. A guy in my guild rolled a '100' for both Gold and Silver rolls.
    I was disappointed that all my rolls this weekend were low, but I can't complain. About 2x a month, i'll feel "lucky" and pay for a gold roll. So far this year, i've rolled 2 100's in those.

  8. #28
    Community Member Seikojin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DethTrip View Post
    I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
    This is why I do a handful of /roll 1d100 spams. I find the rollercoaster pattern already graphed in here, and immediately after I get the low result preceeding what was established as a rush to high, I click that roll (already opened the window and am ready), bam, jackpot.

    The real big reason this is happening: latency to the loot tables. All this stuff has to be secured so no item duping or bad item id's are given out. The latency to the loot databases has been, will be, and pretty much will always be, a big reason you never get the loot you want consistently (not in the I want my sos; but in the ' ran von6 every time I could for 7 years and never saw it in the chest once').

    I should just make that a link in my sig.

  9. #29
    Community Member Atremus's Avatar
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    I look at it like this: I get 1 good silver roll every 2 weeks and 1 good VIP roll every 2 months. The rest of the time its haste potions to sell and 100xp
    Characters: Celemia / Tukson / Thau (Broken link) / Atremus

    “A pessimist is one who feels bad when he feels good for fear he'll feel worse when he feels better.”

  10. #30
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    AFter re-subbing to VIP for 3 months at Xmas time, I rolled my first 100 the next day, have rolled 4 x 100s since.

    I suspect the second my VIP drops end of March, I will go back to meh rolls in the 1 - 40 range.
    Guild - PINOY (on Sarlona)

    Toons: Bagtit, Galing

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by DethTrip View Post
    I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
    I think it's more likely you don't understand how RNG works. But here, as an anecdotal counterpoint, I've a guild mate who has rolled 4 jackpots in a row. From my rolls, it seems about what I would expect from a computerized RNG.

  12. #32
    Community Member Seikojin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sk3l3t0r View Post
    AFter re-subbing to VIP for 3 months at Xmas time, I rolled my first 100 the next day, have rolled 4 x 100s since.

    I suspect the second my VIP drops end of March, I will go back to meh rolls in the 1 - 40 range.
    Try spamming the d100's and pick a roll on what would next be a low roll.

  13. #33
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    I went through a phase a few months ago where I was consistently rolling high (70+) in my rolls. I had three jewels and four experience pots. For the last month or two I can't roll above 30 to save my life.

    Same thing with Tomes. I went through a phase where I they were dropping relatively frequently. Now that I have started a new character on a new server I can't seem to pull any.

    The die are a fickle mistress.
    Last edited by Brendael; 03-04-2014 at 01:47 PM.

  14. #34
    Community Member Singular's Avatar
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    Yeah, I think they're rigged, too. I haven't rolled above 50 in months. It's always low. I tried, just for fun, to spend shards on it a couple of times - low roles. Lately I have just been forgetting about it. I'll log off and think 'oh, forgot to roll. Meh.'

  15. #35
    Community Member Ryiah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogosh View Post
    80% of my rolls fall in the 1-20 range. Never rolled a 100. Ever. At this point I just find it amusing.
    On the topic of amusing, I came back from a two-month break to immediately roll a 100. Almost like it was trying to encourage me.
    Ryiah | Raeyah | Reikara
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  16. #36
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    It's clearly percentage based roll like any other games. That's how company make money. It doesn't matter how many times you roll whether it's silver or gold. You get 91 to 100 only when the system decides to give you that number. Just like casino :P Here what should y'all do... roll one time then wait... after few min roll again.
    PS: there is no guarantee that people get 100, but it would be better than 1 - 20 all the time.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brendael View Post
    The die are a fickle mistress.

    Do not offend the Random Number God, for your rolls will suffer if you do.

    ("RNG" expands to what again?)
    No longer completely f2p as of November 2014. Father of 3 more DDO players so far (I do have more children than that).
    Away from the game most of 2015.

  18. #38
    Community Member Forzah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Violith View Post
    computerized RNG are never truely random. and they can be manipulated easily. There was a dev post at one point that mentioned that they adjusted the numbers to be more average or some such thing. however, I agree with the OP in that I get low (like ~1-30) fairly often.
    They aren't truely random, but especially for single variables they tend to represent the uniform distribution extremely well. The picture of 1313 rolls that has been shown in this thread shows by inspection that the data is uniformly distributed. A statistical test would not reject the hypothesis that is not uniformly distributed. In higher dimensions some problems may arise with dependency for certain PRNGs. For instance, the RANDU PNRG has an extreme dependence in the third dimension:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RANDU

  19. #39
    Community Member Ryiah's Avatar
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    Am I the only one who imagines Turbine doing something akin to this? Keep in mind this is the company that had a flag that modified your luck.

    Ryiah | Raeyah | Reikara
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  20. #40
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    This thread needs someone who understands probabilistic clustering and rarefaction. Scrapco's graphs show expected randomness.

    Simply put the dice rolls are very random within the confines of a typical computer RNG . This means you should see odd streaks both good and bad, in fact streakyness is confirmation that the system is random. If you saw the "fair" results your mind tricks you into thinking you should expect, THEN you would know something fishy is going on.

    Also simply put the range of rewards cause some serious selection bias, "I seem to roll low more often" well of course you do, low rolls are a much broader range than any other possible roll 20% to 60% could reasonably be looked at as "poor results" hell even rolls below 80. A high jackpot roll on the other hand is a tiny range, at exactly 1% or the roll of 100. The next tier of "good rolls" is exactly 3% (97-99) and the next tier of "good" rolls are already "meh" in many peoples eyes and that tier is only 6%.

    Of course your rolls are low, 1 to 80 is a low roll LOL

    The lowest teir is a 1-20 roll, so a 19 in the mind of someone who isn't thinking about it too much is the same at rolling a 1, the next tier is 21 to 40... again very easy to roll a 38 and think: "I just rolled a bad roll", roll a 39 and "wow three days ina row I've rolled low" the next tier is 41 to 60, and are "lame consumables" roll a 60 and then a 52, and now suddenly the not very critical thinker is on the forums proclaiming that the dice are rigged because "every day for a week I've logged in and gotten nothing but low rolls" when in fact you've not rolled very low, nor have to rolled anything remotely suspicious... Roll between 1 and 50 for a month straight and.... guess what? You're still well within the laws of probability. In fact over thousands of rolls it's actually PROBABLE that you will have such a streak.

    If you wish to enlighten yourself go here and understand what is being discussed:
    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/ba.../#.UxfV9YU5McA

    If you wish to remain ignorant so that you can cling to superstition because it comforts you, feel free you're not hurting anyone else, in the case of a game anyway. Though real life is another subject entirely.
    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    You can't possibly design good gameplay if excitement unpredictability and unknowns are NOT ALLOWED because they confuse some players who want everything cut and dried and spelled out for them.

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