Now what I want to know is if I expect to roll less then 30, and often I do then:
- Is that a self fulling prophecy
- Is it me controlling the randomness
- Are the dice really rigged
Questions & Questions
On a related not I have 95% change of UMD working on scrolls, about 1/2 the time I roll a set of 1's?And the first time I try scrolling after logging in is almost always a set of 1's to start the day.
This only happens on one character the others don't seem to have this issue...hmmmm?????
Last edited by Theolin; 03-04-2014 at 10:49 AM.
I noticed if I immediately click roll it is ALWAYS a low roll. It's rigged.
If you're having fun, then you're doing it right.
It sounds a bit superstitious but for some reason people do tend to roll better.
Perceptions are not reality.
<°)))>< O l d T i m e r s ' G u i l d ><(((°>
H a r a j u k u - H o o l o o v o o - V e x x y
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You're saying that if you click right away its always a low roll so its rigged?
Can you explain to me the logic that you see here?
Its rigged to make you wait 5 mins to get a proper roll?
Its rigged to give people with massive lag who can't click right away a better chance to win?
Its rigged so that people with faster connections roll lower and then want to pay astral shards to win something that they're losing on when they roll anyway?
I just fail to see what connection you're drawing.
I've always done it immediately after logging in, my average roll appears to be ~60.
The real big reason this is happening: latency to the loot tables. All this stuff has to be secured so no item duping or bad item id's are given out. The latency to the loot databases has been, will be, and pretty much will always be, a big reason you never get the loot you want consistently (not in the I want my sos; but in the ' ran von6 every time I could for 7 years and never saw it in the chest once').
I should just make that a link in my sig.
I look at it like this: I get 1 good silver roll every 2 weeks and 1 good VIP roll every 2 months. The rest of the time its haste potions to sell and 100xp
AFter re-subbing to VIP for 3 months at Xmas time, I rolled my first 100 the next day, have rolled 4 x 100s since.
I suspect the second my VIP drops end of March, I will go back to meh rolls in the 1 - 40 range.
Guild - PINOY (on Sarlona)
Toons: Bagtit, Galing
I went through a phase a few months ago where I was consistently rolling high (70+) in my rolls. I had three jewels and four experience pots. For the last month or two I can't roll above 30 to save my life.
Same thing with Tomes. I went through a phase where I they were dropping relatively frequently. Now that I have started a new character on a new server I can't seem to pull any.
The die are a fickle mistress.
Last edited by Brendael; 03-04-2014 at 01:47 PM.
Yeah, I think they're rigged, too. I haven't rolled above 50 in months. It's always low. I tried, just for fun, to spend shards on it a couple of times - low roles. Lately I have just been forgetting about it. I'll log off and think 'oh, forgot to roll. Meh.'
It's clearly percentage based roll like any other games. That's how company make money. It doesn't matter how many times you roll whether it's silver or gold. You get 91 to 100 only when the system decides to give you that number. Just like casino :P Here what should y'all do... roll one time then wait... after few min roll again.
PS: there is no guarantee that people get 100, but it would be better than 1 - 20 all the time.
Am I the only one who imagines Turbine doing something akin to this? Keep in mind this is the company that had a flag that modified your luck.
Ryiah | Raeyah | ReikaraToy Soldiers
This thread needs someone who understands probabilistic clustering and rarefaction. Scrapco's graphs show expected randomness.
Simply put the dice rolls are very random within the confines of a typical computer RNG . This means you should see odd streaks both good and bad, in fact streakyness is confirmation that the system is random. If you saw the "fair" results your mind tricks you into thinking you should expect, THEN you would know something fishy is going on.
Also simply put the range of rewards cause some serious selection bias, "I seem to roll low more often" well of course you do, low rolls are a much broader range than any other possible roll 20% to 60% could reasonably be looked at as "poor results" hell even rolls below 80. A high jackpot roll on the other hand is a tiny range, at exactly 1% or the roll of 100. The next tier of "good rolls" is exactly 3% (97-99) and the next tier of "good" rolls are already "meh" in many peoples eyes and that tier is only 6%.
Of course your rolls are low, 1 to 80 is a low roll LOL
The lowest teir is a 1-20 roll, so a 19 in the mind of someone who isn't thinking about it too much is the same at rolling a 1, the next tier is 21 to 40... again very easy to roll a 38 and think: "I just rolled a bad roll", roll a 39 and "wow three days ina row I've rolled low" the next tier is 41 to 60, and are "lame consumables" roll a 60 and then a 52, and now suddenly the not very critical thinker is on the forums proclaiming that the dice are rigged because "every day for a week I've logged in and gotten nothing but low rolls" when in fact you've not rolled very low, nor have to rolled anything remotely suspicious... Roll between 1 and 50 for a month straight and.... guess what? You're still well within the laws of probability. In fact over thousands of rolls it's actually PROBABLE that you will have such a streak.
If you wish to enlighten yourself go here and understand what is being discussed:
If you wish to remain ignorant so that you can cling to superstition because it comforts you, feel free you're not hurting anyone else, in the case of a game anyway. Though real life is another subject entirely.
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