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  1. #21
    Community Member Raoull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krelar View Post
    Do you have an easy way to check for unusual distribution of rolls? (streaking) That's what I hear complained about the most but have never seen definitive data one way or the other.

    As a basic example if I only generate random numbers between 1 and 2 and get 1000 one's followed by 1000 two's. My actual and expected rolls work out (50% if each) but my expected distribution if way off.
    One of the big differences between actual random numbers and what humans think random numbers should look like, is that actual random numbers tend to chunk up significantly more.

    Random URL discussing the concept:
    http://fathommanual.wordpress.com/20...treak-lengths/

    Obviously a streak of 1000 out of 2000 flips would be surprising, but I seriously doubt that is the level of streakiness people are seeing in DDO.
    Cannith Server :Vice Sovereign of The Guild of Calamitous Intent

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  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raoull View Post
    One of the big differences between actual random numbers and what humans think random numbers should look like, is that actual random numbers tend to chunk up significantly more.

    Random URL discussing the concept:
    http://fathommanual.wordpress.com/20...treak-lengths/

    Obviously a streak of 1000 out of 2000 flips would be surprising, but I seriously doubt that is the level of streakiness people are seeing in DDO.
    That's why I was hoping someone with actual data could look at it and put the rumors to rest one way or another.

  3. #23
    Community Member kned225's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.
    Shards? Who cares. Were cosmetics put back as rewards in 19.2? Anybody know? Priorities

  4. #24
    Community Member erdson's Avatar
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    I was thinking I was getting lousy rolls... about 2 months ago. So I started keeping track. I've now logged 51 rolls on each of 3 accounts, and my average is 48.4. With the average for each of the accounts at 43.2 45.0, and 57.1. Obviously all my luck is going to one account. At one point after about 30 days there was an account with an average of only about 30 (I was thinking of starting a thread saying Turbine hates Halflings, since I always do the roll with one on that account), but its come up over the last month to be the 45.0 one.

  5. #25
    The Mad Multiclasser Failedlegend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kned225 View Post
    Shards? Who cares. Were cosmetics put back as rewards in 19.2? Anybody know? Priorities
    Actually putting shards back into the silver daily roll is a BIG deal because AS have become ingrained in so many things that not having a way to get them without $$$ made all those additions I (and others) were ok with no longer ok, readding them will make that ok...its a slow process but not any slower than getting TP through favor.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cordovan
    There is little value in getting into an edition debate; as with anything, we create what we believe works best for DDO.

  6. #26
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krelar View Post
    That's why I was hoping someone with actual data could look at it and put the rumors to rest one way or another.
    Have you noticed my signature?

    I have kept actual real data since inception of daily dice. I post it in that signature link.
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

    Event Statistics: Risia, Festivult, Midwinter, Daily Dice, Mimic Hunt

  7. #27
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.



    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.

    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky
    Looks like Quartermaster knows how to check data. Just wish I could access that instead of having to MANUALLY do it.
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

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  8. #28
    Community Member Qhualor's Avatar
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    So adding the AS back in to DD makes P2WAH less P2W by providing another source where they can be found. Now where's that guy that said he plays the AS market with just DD.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krelar View Post
    Do you have an easy way to check for unusual distribution of rolls? (streaking) That's what I hear complained about the most but have never seen definitive data one way or the other.

    As a basic example if I only generate random numbers between 1 and 2 and get 1000 one's followed by 1000 two's. My actual and expected rolls work out (50% if each) but my expected distribution if way off.
    You can't really prevent streaking. You're assuming that rolls are normalized for each individual person, but in reality they likely are not in terms of randomization. By running some kind of check on a character and their rolls you're artificially trying to further randomize something that is already randomized.

    You'd essentially start creating artificial bad or good luck that need not exist - we are creatures who seek patterns in every thing and look within our microcosms. Randomization on any scale is prone to streakiness, it doesn't mean it isn't random, what it does mean, in fact, is that it's random. Your expected distribution isn't tracked for you, it's just another of millions and millions of randomizations done every single day on the server. If you happened to snag a few similarly low ones, then it sucks to be you, but that's all there is to it.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by losian2 View Post
    You can't really prevent streaking. You're assuming that rolls are normalized for each individual person, but in reality they likely are not in terms of randomization. By running some kind of check on a character and their rolls you're artificially trying to further randomize something that is already randomized.

    You'd essentially start creating artificial bad or good luck that need not exist - we are creatures who seek patterns in every thing and look within our microcosms. Randomization on any scale is prone to streakiness, it doesn't mean it isn't random, what it does mean, in fact, is that it's random. Your expected distribution isn't tracked for you, it's just another of millions and millions of randomizations done every single day on the server. If you happened to snag a few similarly low ones, then it sucks to be you, but that's all there is to it.
    ^this
    Luck is an illusion in RNG

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.


    Oh good. I stupidly got myself down to 3 shards and now are unable to post any items on the shard exchange...
    ~Thelanis ~ Khyber ~

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by zDragonz View Post
    I rolled 5 Gold rolls in a row in a matter of a minute, yesterday, and each one was below 10!

    Something is fishy!
    If you never had a week where you rolled multple low rolls THAT would be fishy. That is how randomness works, you're expecting even results which is actually NOT how randomness works. google probabilistic clustering.

    Again selection bias is at play here, 1-20 is the low roll and is a large percentage of the possible outcomes (20% of them) in contrast to get a 20% block of the higher tier awards, you have FOUR tiers including the middle tier boosts/consumables IIRC.

    I think Turbine would do well to lower the perception of "fishy rolls" by evening out the Tiers and have the first 20 numbers comprise 4 low tiers to mirror the high tiers. Have a 1 roll be a booby prize, you get a totally random (as in possibly a great item) rolled item, and a potion of wonder effect in public, and you turn colors for a few hours.
    *Disclaimer: All statements are generalized without boging down in minutia. Assuming that there are ALWAYS exceptions that test the rule, variations, and un-stated details may be omitted for brevity. These can be assumed to be understood; without bloating my posts with preemptive coverass. [*] Seal[*] Scroll[*] Shard[*] Base Item - eSoS >200 runs

  13. #33
    The Hatchery CaptainSpacePony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.



    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.

    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky
    Don't Cloud the Issue with Facts and Data! Accept the Truthiness that rolls are lower!
    Someone got it wrong. Everyone expected the Spanish Inquisition because they were required to give 30 days notice, by law.
    I can be found on Orien. My more active toons are Cilon, Solstone in Your Pack, and sometimes Acroyer.

  14. #34
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    Random only works over a large large sample size... of say 1000.

    This is why CITW, which I run at most every 3 days but more usually every 10 days or more, loot drop rates appear appalling... or the torc, or the... whatever it is ...
    ~Thelanis ~ Khyber ~

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stretchicus View Post
    ^this
    Luck is an illusion in RNG

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia
    Veteran Angband players (maybe others too) would say that luck is what you have when the Random Number God is happy with you.

    (Can I be a cleric of the RNG, do I get a "reroll all fails for 20 seconds" action boost for my level 6 feat? Pretty please?)



    Although, it does seem to me too that the DDO RNG seems to have an above-average "streaking" tendency, but this is just a feeling with no hard data. Still, I do think it likely that the RNG might in truth be a PRNG and quite possibly not one of the better ones (as they tend to be sort of slow).
    No longer completely f2p as of November 2014. Father of 3 more DDO players so far (I do have more children than that).

  16. #36
    Community Member Phaeton_Seraph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.



    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.

    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky

    Thank you for returning the AS to the Dice rolls!



    --------------------------------------------------------


    As to the dice rolls themselves, I'm a little confused:

    An existing "correlation between expected and actual rolls" does not sound random.

    If you had said that the distribution of the data very much resembles random data sets, that would sound like it was close to random. What you said does not.

    Were you just dumbing this down for us, or can you explain an interesting new system to me?

  17. #37
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    Just because the average across all players and servers is correct, it doesn't mean there is not a bias in the randomness. I could be unlucky, but my main char/server/account has a really low average since the DD came out. And this is after a lot of daily rolls. However, I also have an alt account and recently rolled a new char up on it playing only infrequently and it rolls really high - scoring several tomes and such.

    I just wonder if the seed for the random number generator is linked to the character/account so that while the average across everyone is right, some people are going to be luckier than others...

    thoughts?

  18. #38
    Community Member Ykt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shyft View Post
    In the last few weeks I've had a single high number (83) on over 150+ rolls
    150 rolls on 1-100 ... you need at least 10000 rolls to show a trend, not just bad luck.

  19. #39
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    Cool

    Just got EXTREMELY lucky. After a run of terrible rolls (including 2 1's this week);

    Gold VIP Roll
    100

    10,000XP
    +3 to +4 Int Tome

    Moving forward I should expect a string of 1's the likes of which have never been witnessed by mortal man.

  20. #40
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    My last 6 rolls have all rewarded me the same thing:

    300 XP and 2 Potions of Haste

    If I get it again today, I call shenanigans.

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