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  1. #1
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    Default Recent Rolls on the old Daily Dice....

    I believe this is my first post, so hooray for that. Guess it finally took something odd to make me get on here.

    Daily Dice. Love it or hate it, the free silver/free weekly gold for VIP exists, and as a shard sink, likely will for some time. Most of the changes they have made are good (adding xp to everything, removing base collectibles as a reward) and some bad (no way to get more shards? boo).

    However, over the last 2 weeks (possibly more, possibly less) i've noticed a very disturbing trend on the numbers. This is over 5 of our servers on 2 different accounts, so a sample size of 10/day for 14 days (give or take an additional week or two).

    Rolls have, it seems to me, been dropped astronomically in values. Our random roller used to work quite well, with a given month handing out both low and high numbers (lots of 15-0's and a few 90+) with a reasonable mix in the middle. In the last few weeks I've had a single high number (83) on over 150+ rolls, including upgrades to gold on 30 of those rolls. the norm appears to hover between the 30-55 mark now, with a decided increase in the low 30's.

    I know, in the grand scheme of things, who really cares? Well I do. I think this was one of the more interesting additions, with potential to get lots of smaller things that make this game more fun. Who wouldn't want a free xp pot on a f2p account (hell, for a vip they are handy still in any flavour)? So is it just me rolling poorly, or has anyone else noticed this as well?

  2. #2
    Community Member waryJerry's Avatar
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    I think the addition of xp stones is really nice, even on a silver roll where they're really pretty inconsequential most of the time, but I agree that some of the really nice random prizes you could have won on a silver roll (such as a true heart of wood) seem to be gone.. I hope with all the changes they're making to the reincarnation system as well as the proliferation of kinds of hearts that they'll put these back into the lottery system and that they'll drop randomly in the game at least from time to time.

  3. #3
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    i have not noticed a change in daily dice, although i did notice something odd that seems to happen. i can guarantee getting 1-25. granted, i don't WANT to guarantee it, but it seems like if i jump the gun on the roll, i get 1-25. that is, if i try to bring it up before the game completely loads my character, as indicated by the ability to jump/move, i get a teeny number. i've stopped, and it's been pretty even distribution from what i've seen. keep in mind, 1-50 (i.e. half the rolls) are lousy on silver, and lousy sticks in people's minds more than good. i have forced low rolls for three days straight, on 5 logins each, just to convince myself (literally all of them fell between 1 and 25) and since i stopped, i've gotten one roll in that range in three days. anecdotal, but that's what i've noticed.

  4. #4
    Founder & Hero Uska's Avatar
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    On my large number of characters across several servers most of my rolls lately have all been around 20-30 but hey its free so not gonna really complain about it just it seems odd.

    The ANTI-Realms FANBOI NUKE THE REALMS ITS THE ONLY REAL WAY TO BE SURE

  5. #5
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shyft View Post
    I believe this is my first post, so hooray for that. Guess it finally took something odd to make me get on here.

    Daily Dice. Love it or hate it, the free silver/free weekly gold for VIP exists, and as a shard sink, likely will for some time. Most of the changes they have made are good (adding xp to everything, removing base collectibles as a reward) and some bad (no way to get more shards? boo).

    However, over the last 2 weeks (possibly more, possibly less) i've noticed a very disturbing trend on the numbers. This is over 5 of our servers on 2 different accounts, so a sample size of 10/day for 14 days (give or take an additional week or two).

    Rolls have, it seems to me, been dropped astronomically in values. Our random roller used to work quite well, with a given month handing out both low and high numbers (lots of 15-0's and a few 90+) with a reasonable mix in the middle. In the last few weeks I've had a single high number (83) on over 150+ rolls, including upgrades to gold on 30 of those rolls. the norm appears to hover between the 30-55 mark now, with a decided increase in the low 30's.

    I know, in the grand scheme of things, who really cares? Well I do. I think this was one of the more interesting additions, with potential to get lots of smaller things that make this game more fun. Who wouldn't want a free xp pot on a f2p account (hell, for a vip they are handy still in any flavour)? So is it just me rolling poorly, or has anyone else noticed this as well?
    Sorry to burst your bubble.

    Guess who just rolled TWO 100s today on Sarlona and Cannith? Me. Both of them were +1 to +2 tomes. One was Constitution and one was Charisma. Also, they are back to being NORMAL tomes, and not the tomes I could not use in the Cannith Crafting Hall.
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

    Event Statistics: Risia, Festivult, Midwinter, Daily Dice, Mimic Hunt

  6. #6
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by levesque2004 View Post
    i have not noticed a change in daily dice, although i did notice something odd that seems to happen. i can guarantee getting 1-25. granted, i don't WANT to guarantee it, but it seems like if i jump the gun on the roll, i get 1-25. that is, if i try to bring it up before the game completely loads my character, as indicated by the ability to jump/move, i get a teeny number. i've stopped, and it's been pretty even distribution from what i've seen. keep in mind, 1-50 (i.e. half the rolls) are lousy on silver, and lousy sticks in people's minds more than good. i have forced low rolls for three days straight, on 5 logins each, just to convince myself (literally all of them fell between 1 and 25) and since i stopped, i've gotten one roll in that range in three days. anecdotal, but that's what i've noticed.
    I have noticed the exact same thing.

    If I bring up the daily dice before the red cross appears in the upper left corner, I can almost guarantee it is platinum. If I wait, which I try to do, it is back to being all the numbers.
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

    Event Statistics: Risia, Festivult, Midwinter, Daily Dice, Mimic Hunt

  7. #7
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    The dice just don't like some people... They're badtards like that...

  8. #8
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    Selection bias, know it, live it, accept that we all do it.

    The lowest tier rolls comprise 1-20, where the highest three tiers comprise 91 to 100... of course you seem to get more low rolls if you didn't THEN you would have cause for suspicion.

    Anyone with a Pencil a couple throw away accounts and a few weeks could totally bust Turbine out if they are skewing anything, so of course they aren't doing that.
    You guys filibustering a new mode have already succeeded in scaring the Dev's into not doing it the right way and re-scaling the existing settings, why in the world are you still filibustering? Drunk on your success? Schadenfreude? Spitefulness?

  9. #9
    Community Member Phaeton_Seraph's Avatar
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    I rolled a 100 yesterday on silver. I got 6,000xp and a +1 tome.

    I wish I could trade in the XP shards for something.

  10. #10
    Community Member Qhualor's Avatar
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    oh good, its not just me. it seems ive rolled mostly very low rolls on silver. weekly VIP gold is usually mid to high numbers for me. loaded dice? sounds like theres more there since this isn't the first thread about low rolls and others seem to experience the same thing.

    personally, I don't really care but it does smell fishy to me. ill take the 100-200 free xp and the occasional less slayer boost and go about my day. if this was happening with gold rolls I would actually rant about it.

  11. #11
    Community Member Ivan_Milic's Avatar
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    4 days in a row I got greater sibery spirit cake on gold roll.

  12. #12
    The Hatchery Wipey's Avatar
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    Sometimes stuff sells on asah, sometimes not, but I try to keep at least 2.5k shards, but roll some now and then.
    ~ 100 - 150 gold rolls, never gotten anything cool except billion mana pots, fire shield pots and loot gems.
    Spend most shards I got from asah trading on chest rerolls these days. Which might be even worse, but hey
    Shahang Nezhat Bellezza Wipekin Farida of Ghallanda

  13. #13
    Community Member Ivan_Milic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan_Milic View Post
    4 days in a row I got greater sibery spirit cake on gold roll.
    5 days in a row roll between 60-80.

  14. #14
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    I've been fortunate enough to get astral shards in return for good items I've found in chests in the shard exchange. I take one daily gold roll for 12 shards rather than silver for free. I lost count of the number of rolls where I got 1000 experience and 10k platinum around 10 rolls. But recently it's changed to a streak of 4000 experience and a greater siberys spirit cake, about 3 times so far, still low rolls. My theory was that when the last update happened they loaded the dice to roll low but good to see some people are still rolling high. Guess I'm just having an astounding run of bad luck.

  15. #15
    Community Member zDragonz's Avatar
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    Thumbs down Yep they seem fixed.

    I rolled 5 Gold rolls in a row in a matter of a minute, yesterday, and each one was below 10!

    Something is fishy!

  16. #16
    Brand / Commerce Team QuartermasterX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shyft View Post
    Most of the changes they have made are good (adding xp to everything, removing base collectibles as a reward) and some bad (no way to get more shards? boo).
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by shyft View Post
    So is it just me rolling poorly, or has anyone else noticed this as well?
    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.

    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.

    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky
    Do you have an easy way to check for unusual distribution of rolls? (streaking) That's what I hear complained about the most but have never seen definitive data one way or the other.

    As a basic example if I only generate random numbers between 1 and 2 and get 1000 one's followed by 1000 two's. My actual and expected rolls work out (50% if each) but my expected distribution if way off.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    We are planning on reintroducing Astral Shards as rewards to Daily Dice in the future.
    That is wonderful news. Thank you. I've had my eye on a new airship for some time, but just a few shards short.

  19. #19
    Scholar Of Adventure & Hero Missing_Minds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    I have been rolling low lately as well. Although I know there is no loaded dice (this feature is QA tested each update), I pulled data to see if the average roll is lower than the expected roll for the past 2 weeks.
    While I believe the dice function may be flat, the distribution is not which renders lopsided results. When the results aren't flat, that grants unfair advantage.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuartermasterX View Post
    Since there is a 98% correlation between expected and actual rolls, we just appear to be a bit unlucky
    I have seen no difference between my daily dice rolls and /roll d100.

  20. #20
    The Front Side Gratch's Avatar
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    We've all seen the DDO rolls. 3 20's in a row... 5 1's in a roll while a helf cleric-dilly tries to use a heal scroll. I know my recent comments have ended me up in Turbine's alternate random number generator for Daily Dice rolls (nothing above 20):
    Quote Originally Posted by Cordovan View Post
    DO NOT DO THIS. We are investigating.

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