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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    A recent discussion caused me to explore what happens during combat and how the four corners of defense seem to be working in DDO.


    Anyway, I think it is useful information for players trying to estimate how much effort to put into each of the four corners of defense.
    Excellent read! Many thanks and this thread I'll subscribed to keep an eye on.

  2. #22
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by keveniaftw View Post
    I have run a monk with 160 AC, he never, ever, ever got missed by AC in EE, except on the occasional 1 roll of a mob. AC is worthless in EE, and if you decide to build AC on your toons, feel free but know two things.
    1) You'll only be disappointed and don't come cry because it doesn't work.
    2) Don't act towards other players like it works, it doesn't. You not only will disappoint yourself, but also other players...

    Kev
    This is the same argument used elsewhere that has been definitively shown to be untrue.

    If you can watch the eElite Cabal video you will find that at 114 AC the character is missed twice in 30 attacks due to armor alone. The "never, ever, ever" statements are not based on anyone doing the type of testing that I'm doing here. They are based on a misunderstanding of how the defenses work and on a misunderstanding of how often AC should be producing misses.

    In the eElite video the expected results from 23% dodge and 25% incorporeality (Shadow Veil is active for most of the Cloven-Jaw Warlord fight) is 7 dodge misses, 6 incorporeal misses and 8 armor misses leaving 9 attacks to get through for hits. The actual results are 10 dodge misses, 9 incorporeal misses and 2 armor misses with 9 attacks getting through for damage.

    What I find most interesting is that in both this early run and in my test "at level" the number of hits is what I expect to get -- although the numbers associated with each part of the defenses isn't. I think that this has statistical meaning since the aggregate of the defenses is the same so fluctuations in the actual numbers is still giving the expected results.

    Again, I'm sure a real mathematician could tell. I am stuck just making the observations and speculating on the reasons.
    Last edited by IWCoppercrest; 09-15-2013 at 09:53 AM.

  3. #23
    Community Member hucka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smeggy1384 View Post
    When attacking a monster the first thing checked is incorpeality. Ever see a roll of 20 that shows +0 at the end and Incorp on the on screen attack dice? The same probably applies to players. As for sample sizes 1000 would be a good sample size. 10% of that would be 100 for incorp, 100 for concealment, 23% for dodge (unless some monsters bypass dodge, have seen a few player abilities that can bypass dodge) gives you 230 misses due to dodge and finally 67% from your at level AC for 670 misses from that. So we get 100+100+230+670= 1100 total missed attacks... out of 1000 total attacks. Now whichever type comes first would cause diminishing returns on the following types.

    Knowing about diminishing returns lets start over with 1000 total attacks. First comes incorp at 10%, so 100 attacks miss leaving 900 that can go through concealment, dodge and AC. Now it is just a guessing game of what comes next, i will go with concealment since it has the least numerical impact. Of the 900 remaining attacks 10% miss due to concealment, 810 remain to miss due to AC or be dodged. Which now? If Dodge comes next 623 attacks remain, after AC 205 of those would connect. How about if AC comes befofe dodge? 67% out of 810 leaves 267 attacks to be dodged. After 23% dodge 205 hit. Surprising that it didn't seem to matter if dodge or AC came first at those numbers, perhaps a sample size of 10,000 is needed so the decimals i dropped will show the difference more.
    even with a trillion attacks, the number of hits will always be the same, no matter if its AC first or dodge first

    since the misschances are multiplied, the order you apply them doesnt matter

  4. #24
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smeggy1384 View Post
    When attacking a monster the first thing checked is incorpeality. Ever see a roll of 20 that shows +0 at the end and Incorp on the on screen attack dice? The same probably applies to players. As for sample sizes 1000 would be a good sample size. 10% of that would be 100 for incorp, 100 for concealment, 23% for dodge (unless some monsters bypass dodge, have seen a few player abilities that can bypass dodge) gives you 230 misses due to dodge and finally 67% from your at level AC for 670 misses from that. So we get 100+100+230+670= 1100 total missed attacks... out of 1000 total attacks. Now whichever type comes first would cause diminishing returns on the following types.

    Knowing about diminishing returns lets start over with 1000 total attacks. First comes incorp at 10%, so 100 attacks miss leaving 900 that can go through concealment, dodge and AC. Now it is just a guessing game of what comes next, i will go with concealment since it has the least numerical impact. Of the 900 remaining attacks 10% miss due to concealment, 810 remain to miss due to AC or be dodged. Which now? If Dodge comes next 623 attacks remain, after AC 205 of those would connect. How about if AC comes befofe dodge? 67% out of 810 leaves 267 attacks to be dodged. After 23% dodge 205 hit. Surprising that it didn't seem to matter if dodge or AC came first at those numbers, perhaps a sample size of 10,000 is needed so the decimals i dropped will show the difference more.
    The diminishing returns piece here is exactly what I've tried to describe earlier in the thread. I've also tried to explain that from a purely math standpoint it does not matter what the order is.

    The screen display does not mean that incorporeality is checked first, only that incorporeality negated the attack. In point of fact there is nothing in the feedback itself that tells us what happens first. Like other aspects of this, players have made assumptions about how these things are working.

    I think that those assumptions are wrong.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    If you can watch the eElite Cabal video you will find that at 114 AC the character is missed twice in 30 attacks due to armor alone.
    2 out of 30...when, on average, 1 out of 20 is a natural 1 auto-miss? And you think that is meaningful evidence of something other than a mob rolling a natural 1 twice in 30 rolls?

  6. #26
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    If people are walking into end game dungeons with 100-160 ac and only missing 2 hits why do the even bother giving us so many cheap enhancements to stack it? Honestly that makes the earth savant natural AC boost seem like a total joke now. Leveling with 55-61% miss chance has been great for me but if it just becomes a garbage stat down the line I'll just drop it. my sorc had a potential 80 AC at 20 and about 100 ac at 25 but that a lot of sacrifice for no returns it seems.

    What the heck do people stack for defense in this game then. Physical damage reduction usually seems harder to acquire past 50 if your not a plate/shield class. So what's left dodge and health? Displacement makes it a 50/50 shoot either way but it was nice having another 50% miss buffer over that .

  7. #27
    Community Member Pilgrim1's Avatar
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    Oy, I thought I would bring this question up:

    Does it matter what order these defenses apply?

    For example if you have 20% blur (B), 10% incorpral (A), 25% dodge (D), and say 35% armorclass (C).

    expected hit chance with B>A>D>C out of 100 hits:
    .8*.9*.75*.65 = hit 35 out of 100 times...

    changing the order: C>D>A>B with 100 hits:
    0.65*0.75*0.9*0.8 = hit 35 our of 100 times.

    Basically what I'm trying to say is that since we multiply our different layers of defense the order should not mathematically madder.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by smeggy1384 View Post
    When attacking a monster the first thing checked is incorpeality. Ever see a roll of 20 that shows +0 at the end and Incorp on the on screen attack dice? The same probably applies to players. As for sample sizes 1000 would be a good sample size. 10% of that would be 100 for incorp, 100 for concealment, 23% for dodge (unless some monsters bypass dodge, have seen a few player abilities that can bypass dodge) gives you 230 misses due to dodge and finally 67% from your at level AC for 670 misses from that. So we get 100+100+230+670= 1100 total missed attacks... out of 1000 total attacks. Now whichever type comes first would cause diminishing returns on the following types.

    Knowing about diminishing returns lets start over with 1000 total attacks. First comes incorp at 10%, so 100 attacks miss leaving 900 that can go through concealment, dodge and AC. Now it is just a guessing game of what comes next, i will go with concealment since it has the least numerical impact. Of the 900 remaining attacks 10% miss due to concealment, 810 remain to miss due to AC or be dodged. Which now? If Dodge comes next 623 attacks remain, after AC 205 of those would connect. How about if AC comes befofe dodge? 67% out of 810 leaves 267 attacks to be dodged. After 23% dodge 205 hit. Surprising that it didn't seem to matter if dodge or AC came first at those numbers, perhaps a sample size of 10,000 is needed so the decimals i dropped will show the difference more.

    The biggest problem with AC is because there is no at level mobs we fight in eE. The mob average is 45-79 so the at level is of no value to us. And I would agree with the sentiments of other posters that a high AC means nothing when a CR79 can hit you on anything but a 1 anyways.

    If you want to test AC, remove all other forms of protection at say CR 45, CR 50, CR 55, CR 60, CR65, CR70, CR75 and CR79 mobs and find out where it provides any value of protection. Otherwise for me and I think most will continue to provide their defenses with Dodge, Concealment and Incorporality...or simple avoidance.

  9. #29
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    It's incredibly ironic how the OP sought to prove Teh_Troll (and all the other forum posters saying AC is worthless in EE) wrong, but instead provided data that proves Teh_Troll is correct. Of course, I know Teh_Troll is always right, but it's good to see some empirical evidence supporting it.

    Really OP, you interpret 2 out of 30 misses in EE to mean AC works? You do realize enemies automatically miss on a 1 right? And that 2/30 is 6.67%, which is pretty close to the expected 5% miss chance all enemies have?

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by mute_mayhem View Post
    It's incredibly ironic how the OP sought to prove Teh_Troll (and all the other forum posters saying AC is worthless in EE) wrong, but instead provided data that proves Teh_Troll is correct. Of course, I know Teh_Troll is always right, but it's good to see some empirical evidence supporting it.
    Good minion, have a cookie.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by jskinner937 View Post
    The biggest problem with AC is because there is no at level mobs we fight in eE. The mob average is 45-79 so the at level is of no value to us. And I would agree with the sentiments of other posters that a high AC means nothing when a CR79 can hit you on anything but a 1 anyways.

    If you want to test AC, remove all other forms of protection at say CR 45, CR 50, CR 55, CR 60, CR65, CR70, CR75 and CR79 mobs and find out where it provides any value of protection. Otherwise for me and I think most will continue to provide their defenses with Dodge, Concealment and Incorporality...or simple avoidance.
    this is the type of testing I'd like to see videos of.

    step 1 MAX out AC
    step 2 remove all forms of dodge, concealment and incorporeal
    step 3 Enter EE lvl 27 quest
    step 4 make video and post results here in the forums

  12. #32
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    I think that the eElite Cabal test with 30 hits is too small a sample size to draw conclusions. The 2 misses could be all because of armor, they could all be because of rolls of 1, they could be one of each.

    Something to keep in mind is that my character doesn't have the high AC being discussed and I don't have the means to build such a character. So the testing ultimately will lead to looking at the to-hit formula to see if it reveals anything about attack bonus. But, this is a bit far off since getting a legitimate test means having some healing help in the encounter.

    I tried running with a hireling but just can't make him operate fast enough to keep my test character alive. So, for the moment, I'm limited to testing what I can test.

    But, this is a project that is in progress. I'm confident that if I get the mechanics of how the defenses are checked that I'll be able to show where the effective numbers are for armor class.

  13. #33
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanngiostr View Post
    this is the type of testing I'd like to see videos of.

    step 1 MAX out AC
    step 2 remove all forms of dodge, concealment and incorporeal
    step 3 Enter EE lvl 27 quest
    step 4 make video and post results here in the forums
    Great. You do just that.

    Seriously, I can only test based on what I have available to work with. I'm not going to spend the hours needed to create the perfect test character and go through all the hoops that people are posting about.

    I am going to conduct tests with what I have and look to see if the defenses work the way Turbine leads us to believe they work. Along the way I'm going to determine the probable sequence for how the attack die roll gets checked against defenses.

    Once I have that information with a sufficient level of confidence then I will undertake checking eElite content.

    If people are not happy with that they can go run their own tests.

  14. #34
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    Default Test 2

    Ran the second test of armor class effectiveness in epic Gianthold against CR26 monsters. I took advice from others and removed concealment and incorporeal items from the test character. This let me limit the protection to dodge and armor class only.

    In 102 attacks, 23 were prevented by dodge and 51 by armor class. The character ran with 23% dodge and 67% "at level" armor class. The number of misses matches almost exactly with expectations if the order in which defenses are checked is dodge first and armor class last.

    With dodge first the number of expected misses is 102*.23=23.46. The actual number of misses was 23.

    The expected number of misses on the remaining attacks is 78.54*.67=52.6218. The actual number of misses was 51.

    The expected number of hits is 102*.77*.33=25.9182. The actual number of hits was 28.

    These results are so close to what is expected that I am absolutely confident that the check order for defense is dodge, (incorporeal and concealment -- order to be determined), armor class.

    What is more important about this test is that it illustrates that the "at level" protection of armor class is working. This begs the question of whether it works on eElite content. To test that I need to run into eElite Cabal with a live cleric/favored soul to test.

    In the mean time I still have to determine whether incorporeality or concealment is the second defense checked. This is going to be my immediate focus as it is the easier test to conduct.

  15. #35
    Community Member Therigar's Avatar
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    Default Videos

    Reserved for information on first 2 test videos. They are currently uploading to YouTube. I will update this post when they are available.

    UPDATE

    The first video showing a test of the defense components is found here: Epic Gianthold AC test 1.

    The second video is found here: Epic Gianthold AC test 2.
    Last edited by Therigar; 09-14-2013 at 09:00 PM. Reason: Added links to videos

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    Ran the second test of armor class effectiveness in epic Gianthold against CR26 monsters.
    You mean...in the wilderness? On Normal-difficulty monsters?

    OK, you win! I hereby concede the following: "AC can be somewhat effective against trivially easy monsters."

    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    This begs the question of whether it works on eElite content.
    I'll say.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirValentine View Post
    OK, you win! I hereby concede the following: "AC can be somewhat effective against trivially easy monsters."
    Jokes aside it still works great in heroic, more reason why I think the to-hit formula we've been given is wrong.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    One thing that I think people have wrong is concluding that AC should be disregarded. Even if it checks last it still accounts for 39 of the 85 misses in the test. That is 46% of the misses. I think people should be drawing the opposite conclusion -- AC matters quite a lot.
    The order of operations is entirely irrelevant. If your armor lets you 'miss' 40% of the time, and you have a 20% blur that is checked first, it does not effect the value of either property.

    The reason that people undervalue AC is because of the massive inflation of monster stats at higher difficulties. 'At level' defenses are great, but as you said yourself you had to go to an explore area just to find at-level foes to fight. And when you start looking at some of the attack bonuses that monsters get at higher levels and higher difficulties, that AC gets much less useful.

  19. #39
    Community Member Oxarhamar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therigar View Post
    Great. You do just that.

    Seriously, I can only test based on what I have available to work with. I'm not going to spend the hours needed to create the perfect test character and go through all the hoops that people are posting about.

    I am going to conduct tests with what I have and look to see if the defenses work the way Turbine leads us to believe they work. Along the way I'm going to determine the probable sequence for how the attack die roll gets checked against defenses.

    Once I have that information with a sufficient level of confidence then I will undertake checking eElite content.

    If people are not happy with that they can go run their own tests.
    I believe AC is not and has not been useful in EE content for a good long while...

    I'll stick to other forms of damage mitigation that I know actually function.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by smeggy1384 View Post
    When attacking a monster the first thing checked is incorpeality. Ever see a roll of 20 that shows +0 at the end and Incorp on the on screen attack dice? The same probably applies to players.
    This tells me that AC is checked first as, if the others are checked first, there would be no need to even make an attack roll.

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