If you can watch the eElite Cabal video you will find that at 114 AC the character is missed twice in 30 attacks due to armor alone. The "never, ever, ever" statements are not based on anyone doing the type of testing that I'm doing here. They are based on a misunderstanding of how the defenses work and on a misunderstanding of how often AC should be producing misses.
In the eElite video the expected results from 23% dodge and 25% incorporeality (Shadow Veil is active for most of the Cloven-Jaw Warlord fight) is 7 dodge misses, 6 incorporeal misses and 8 armor misses leaving 9 attacks to get through for hits. The actual results are 10 dodge misses, 9 incorporeal misses and 2 armor misses with 9 attacks getting through for damage.
What I find most interesting is that in both this early run and in my test "at level" the number of hits is what I expect to get -- although the numbers associated with each part of the defenses isn't. I think that this has statistical meaning since the aggregate of the defenses is the same so fluctuations in the actual numbers is still giving the expected results.
Again, I'm sure a real mathematician could tell. I am stuck just making the observations and speculating on the reasons.
Last edited by IWCoppercrest; 09-15-2013 at 09:53 AM.
The screen display does not mean that incorporeality is checked first, only that incorporeality negated the attack. In point of fact there is nothing in the feedback itself that tells us what happens first. Like other aspects of this, players have made assumptions about how these things are working.
I think that those assumptions are wrong.
If people are walking into end game dungeons with 100-160 ac and only missing 2 hits why do the even bother giving us so many cheap enhancements to stack it? Honestly that makes the earth savant natural AC boost seem like a total joke now. Leveling with 55-61% miss chance has been great for me but if it just becomes a garbage stat down the line I'll just drop it. my sorc had a potential 80 AC at 20 and about 100 ac at 25 but that a lot of sacrifice for no returns it seems.
What the heck do people stack for defense in this game then. Physical damage reduction usually seems harder to acquire past 50 if your not a plate/shield class. So what's left dodge and health? Displacement makes it a 50/50 shoot either way but it was nice having another 50% miss buffer over that .
Oy, I thought I would bring this question up:
Does it matter what order these defenses apply?
For example if you have 20% blur (B), 10% incorpral (A), 25% dodge (D), and say 35% armorclass (C).
expected hit chance with B>A>D>C out of 100 hits:
.8*.9*.75*.65 = hit 35 out of 100 times...
changing the order: C>D>A>B with 100 hits:
0.65*0.75*0.9*0.8 = hit 35 our of 100 times.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that since we multiply our different layers of defense the order should not mathematically madder.
The biggest problem with AC is because there is no at level mobs we fight in eE. The mob average is 45-79 so the at level is of no value to us. And I would agree with the sentiments of other posters that a high AC means nothing when a CR79 can hit you on anything but a 1 anyways.
If you want to test AC, remove all other forms of protection at say CR 45, CR 50, CR 55, CR 60, CR65, CR70, CR75 and CR79 mobs and find out where it provides any value of protection. Otherwise for me and I think most will continue to provide their defenses with Dodge, Concealment and Incorporality...or simple avoidance.
It's incredibly ironic how the OP sought to prove Teh_Troll (and all the other forum posters saying AC is worthless in EE) wrong, but instead provided data that proves Teh_Troll is correct. Of course, I know Teh_Troll is always right, but it's good to see some empirical evidence supporting it.
Really OP, you interpret 2 out of 30 misses in EE to mean AC works? You do realize enemies automatically miss on a 1 right? And that 2/30 is 6.67%, which is pretty close to the expected 5% miss chance all enemies have?
I think that the eElite Cabal test with 30 hits is too small a sample size to draw conclusions. The 2 misses could be all because of armor, they could all be because of rolls of 1, they could be one of each.
Something to keep in mind is that my character doesn't have the high AC being discussed and I don't have the means to build such a character. So the testing ultimately will lead to looking at the to-hit formula to see if it reveals anything about attack bonus. But, this is a bit far off since getting a legitimate test means having some healing help in the encounter.
I tried running with a hireling but just can't make him operate fast enough to keep my test character alive. So, for the moment, I'm limited to testing what I can test.
But, this is a project that is in progress. I'm confident that if I get the mechanics of how the defenses are checked that I'll be able to show where the effective numbers are for armor class.
Seriously, I can only test based on what I have available to work with. I'm not going to spend the hours needed to create the perfect test character and go through all the hoops that people are posting about.
I am going to conduct tests with what I have and look to see if the defenses work the way Turbine leads us to believe they work. Along the way I'm going to determine the probable sequence for how the attack die roll gets checked against defenses.
Once I have that information with a sufficient level of confidence then I will undertake checking eElite content.
If people are not happy with that they can go run their own tests.
Ran the second test of armor class effectiveness in epic Gianthold against CR26 monsters. I took advice from others and removed concealment and incorporeal items from the test character. This let me limit the protection to dodge and armor class only.
In 102 attacks, 23 were prevented by dodge and 51 by armor class. The character ran with 23% dodge and 67% "at level" armor class. The number of misses matches almost exactly with expectations if the order in which defenses are checked is dodge first and armor class last.
With dodge first the number of expected misses is 102*.23=23.46. The actual number of misses was 23.
The expected number of misses on the remaining attacks is 78.54*.67=52.6218. The actual number of misses was 51.
The expected number of hits is 102*.77*.33=25.9182. The actual number of hits was 28.
These results are so close to what is expected that I am absolutely confident that the check order for defense is dodge, (incorporeal and concealment -- order to be determined), armor class.
What is more important about this test is that it illustrates that the "at level" protection of armor class is working. This begs the question of whether it works on eElite content. To test that I need to run into eElite Cabal with a live cleric/favored soul to test.
In the mean time I still have to determine whether incorporeality or concealment is the second defense checked. This is going to be my immediate focus as it is the easier test to conduct.
Reserved for information on first 2 test videos. They are currently uploading to YouTube. I will update this post when they are available.
The first video showing a test of the defense components is found here: Epic Gianthold AC test 1.
The second video is found here: Epic Gianthold AC test 2.
Last edited by Therigar; 09-14-2013 at 09:00 PM. Reason: Added links to videos
The reason that people undervalue AC is because of the massive inflation of monster stats at higher difficulties. 'At level' defenses are great, but as you said yourself you had to go to an explore area just to find at-level foes to fight. And when you start looking at some of the attack bonuses that monsters get at higher levels and higher difficulties, that AC gets much less useful.
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