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  1. #21
    Community Member bartharok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MindCakes View Post
    Actually no it's not. It's some 300000 times less likely than rolling each of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9 once in 10 rolls.
    My point was that rolling any series of numbers is just as likely as any other. If you rolled 1-10 in order it would be just as likely as rolling 10 3s, though one of them might SEEM more likely
    Dystopia = utopia achieved

  2. #22
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    The odds of rolling 3 10 times in a row or rolling 1 each of numbers 1-10 in 10 rolls are the same.

    This is because a dice is memory-less. The previous roll does not influence the next one.

    Believing otherwise is called the Gambler's Fallacy, which you can wiki if you're unsure.

    Aes.

  3. #23
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    (Why do they have to be random. The game designers can design the feature so everyone always rolls a 42 if they wish, or perhaps they can have a slider mechanism on a dev control panel where they can pick a number based on their mood, or they can tie it to an aggregate measurement of the DDO economy on that server, or they can key it to pi * (phase of the moon) / day of the week * some_favorite_aunts_age...,)

  4. #24
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    @My2Cents:

    You're correct of course The algorithm they use could be anything, and in the end only simulates randomness. What I meant was that as a purely mathematical exercise, the odds of any combination of numbers from 10 rolls, all 1s to all 20s, should be precisely the same.

    Aes.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istaria1 View Post
    The odds of rolling 3 10 times in a row or rolling 1 each of numbers 1-10 in 10 rolls are the same.

    This is because a dice is memory-less. The previous roll does not influence the next one.

    Believing otherwise is called the Gambler's Fallacy, which you can wiki if you're unsure.

    Aes.
    No, unless the dice is heavily weighted towards rolling threes.


    Let's keep it simple, roll a d4 four times. Or roll 4d4, w/e.
    What's more likely: rolling 4 ones, or getting each of the four numbers once?

    There are 256 different possible roll combinations, assuming non-weighted dice, all equally likely.
    Exactly one of them is 1,1,1,1. So there's 1 in 256 chance of getting four ones.
    For getting 4 different numbers the possible rolls are:
    1,2,3,4; 1,2,4,3; 1,3,2,4; 1,3,4,2; 1,4,2,3; 1,4,3,2;
    2,1,3,4; 2,1,4,3; 2,3,1,4; 2,3,4,1; 2,4,1,3; 2,4,3,1;
    3,2,1,4; 3,2,4,1; 3,1,2,4; 3,1,4,2; 3,4,2,1; 3,4,1,2;
    4,2,3,1; 4,2,1,3; 4,3,2,1; 4,3,1,2; 4,1,2,3; 4,1,3,2;
    - so there's 24 in 256 chance of getting each of the four numbers once.

    Think about it. Or you can try searching wiki or google, though sadly, good introductions to probability are hard to find.

  6. #26
    Community Member Dreppo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrapco View Post
    You can see the minor oddness in the second one, but this sample size is wayyyyyy too low to declare anything. I'll wait until I hit 10,000 before passing judgment.
    If you only have one game account, that will take 25 years. I await your results.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istaria1 View Post
    The odds of rolling 3 10 times in a row or rolling 1 each of numbers 1-10 in 10 rolls are the same.

    This is because a dice is memory-less. The previous roll does not influence the next one.

    Believing otherwise is called the Gambler's Fallacy, which you can wiki if you're unsure.

    Aes.
    True, but the odds of only rolling 3 10 times in a row are a LOT lower than the odds of not only rolling 3 10 times in a row. As, while the odds of rolling any particular combinations of numbers are the same. The odds of rolling any combination of numbers except that particular combination aren't the same as rolling that particular combination beyond a single coin flip.

  8. #28
    Community Member Delegator's Avatar
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    I have seen behavior that leads me to believe the rolls aren't random at all. I have two accounts, both VIP, and for the past 2-days their rolls have been exactly the same (yesterday a 3, today an 81 on both). Possible? Sure. But that's a 1 in 10,000 chance if the rolls are actually random and independent. This may have been going on for slightly longer, but I've become aware of it now.

    Free stuff is still free, mind you, but the implication of daily dice is that they behave like dice. One has to wonder whether these particular dice are loaded.

  9. #29
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    Default its the exact same with loot....

    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Our guild constantly compares results, and the VIPs consistently get better results than the premiums. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tight, but there seems to be something going on there.
    vips also get better loot, and yes the DD are completely rigged. The chest loot is just as rigged, why on earth would they give you the loot for free when they know they can charge you not only for a loot boost but now for a chest re-roll. They sell the DD just like drugs. On my server I sold a pair of manacles of ceaseless toil EE for 12,000 astral shards and received 8600 after auction take. I have rolled more rolls than any single player in this game and I can tell you it is 100% completely rigged. The chest loot is rigged now too, very few mana pots, very few tomes and now we have to pay for chest loot or not get it. DDO is headed for failure. I can tell you that 1% of the people like the idea of chest loot re-rolls and paying astral to go places.

  10. #30
    Community Member jakeelala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by riskyraines View Post
    vips also get better loot, and yes the DD are completely rigged. The chest loot is just as rigged, why on earth would they give you the loot for free when they know they can charge you not only for a loot boost but now for a chest re-roll. They sell the DD just like drugs. On my server I sold a pair of manacles of ceaseless toil EE for 12,000 astral shards and received 8600 after auction take. I have rolled more rolls than any single player in this game and I can tell you it is 100% completely rigged. The chest loot is rigged now too, very few mana pots, very few tomes and now we have to pay for chest loot or not get it. DDO is headed for failure. I can tell you that 1% of the people like the idea of chest loot re-rolls and paying astral to go places.
    huh?

  11. #31
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    Default you cant read?

    Quote Originally Posted by jakeelala View Post
    huh?
    you cant read?

  12. #32
    Community Member Ashlayna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Our guild constantly compares results, and the VIPs consistently get better results than the premiums. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tight, but there seems to be something going on there.
    I really want their luck then. VIP here, and I haven't rolled a 100 since it was introduced, let alone adapted to the new system, and this on two VIP accounts. The last time I commented on this somebody told me my dice are broken, and I believe it. Some of the people in my guild, VIP or not, have rolled 100s.

  13. #33
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Default Daily Dice NOT fixed

    Quote Originally Posted by enteriiblackwater View Post
    I am beginning to think they are, I decided to keep track of my last 10 rolls.

    I got 3 9 times out of 10, statistically the chance of doing that with a 100 die roll is astronomical, This is not just on 1 toon I have done this on 4 different toons.

    Sorry that's not a random roll. Something aint right with the way rolls are done.

    Ent
    I know I am 10 days late to the thread. Someone else necroed it.

    Please check my signature for Silver Daily Dice rolls. I am not VIP, so I don't have weekly gold rolls.

    If you are too lazy to click the signature or search forums

    https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthrea...64#post5102264
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

    Event Statistics: Risia, Festivult, Midwinter, Daily Dice, Mimic Hunt

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