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  1. #1

    Default Daily Rolls Fixed?

    I am beginning to think they are, I decided to keep track of my last 10 rolls.

    I got 3 9 times out of 10, statistically the chance of doing that with a 100 die roll is astronomical, This is not just on 1 toon I have done this on 4 different toons.

    Sorry that's not a random roll. Something aint right with the way rolls are done.

    Ent
    Impi! wo 'nans' impi iyeza
    Obani bengathinta amabhubesi?

  2. #2
    Community Member Shorlong's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by enteriiblackwater View Post
    I am beginning to think they are, I decided to keep track of my last 10 rolls.

    I got 3 9 times out of 10, statistically the chance of doing that with a 100 die roll is astronomical, This is not just on 1 toon I have done this on 4 different toons.

    Sorry that's not a random roll. Something aint right with the way rolls are done.

    Ent
    Seems pretty random to me. I sometimes roll high, sometimes roll low....
    Shorlong - Pale Master, Cevon - Druid Archer, Gorgnak - Barbarian, Addanc - Bear Tank, Juristash - Shadar Kai Assassin, Treiah - Morninglord Tempest Ranger, Baylfyre - CC Bard, Deimanus - Bladeforged Melee Arti, Daerian - Healing Cleric Morninglord, Krazig - Pally Tank, Veriste - Shadar Kai Death Knight, Xanapheia - TWF FVS, Helainia - Shadar Kai Henshin-Theif

    Leader of The Dark Creed

  3. #3
    Community Member Sleepsalot-1's Avatar
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    In 30 rolls I have had 2 above 80.. One if those was a 100 the other 86.. The other 28 times roll was 40 or below.. I have used AD for a few rolls all have been below 40.. So I guess I have crappy luck...

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shorlong View Post
    Seems pretty random to me. I sometimes roll high, sometimes roll low....
    rolling a 3 9 times out of 10 rolls is not random, nothing about it is random.

    Ent
    Impi! wo 'nans' impi iyeza
    Obani bengathinta amabhubesi?

  5. #5
    Hero AZgreentea's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by enteriiblackwater View Post
    rolling a 3 9 times out of 10 rolls is not random, nothing about it is random.

    Ent
    Just because its improbable, dosen't mean its impossible. The odds of winning the Powerball is astronomical, as people love to point out. However, someone always seems to win, don't they?
    The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get old ones out. Every mind is a building filled with archaic furniture. Clean out a corner of your mind and creativity will instantly fill it.
    Dee Hock

  6. #6
    Community Member bartharok's Avatar
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    rolling 3 9 times out of 10 is actually just as likely as rolling any 9 other rolls out of 10. The odds are low for doing so, but any 10 rolls are just as likely to be any other numbers.
    Dystopia = utopia achieved

  7. #7
    Bwest Fwiends Memnir's Avatar
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    As critical as I am of the game at times... I don't think the DD rolls are in any way fixed. IMHO, it's something they've gotten pretty much spot-on.
    53723

  8. #8
    2016 DDO Players Council Qhualor's Avatar
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    I was actually thinking the other day that something is wonky with DD. Its a free roll and I get free stuff so I just thought "whatever". Most of my rolls lately have been low earning me only xp. Before the addition of xp with your rolls, I got mostly junk anyways so I prefer xp instead if its all I will get with low rolls. The high rolls, which are very few, I usually get those heal pots, mana pots or xp pots and xp. Not gonna complain about getting something for free, but I wonder if DD is actually WAI.

  9. #9
    Community Member PermaBanned's Avatar
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    Our guild constantly compares results, and the VIPs consistently get better results than the premiums. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tight, but there seems to be something going on there.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?

  10. #10
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    I truly believe that the rolls in DDO are timer-based. Round-based? Whatever, I'll try to explain.

    Let's say that you have a 10 second "round". Someone told me once that in DDO it's 6 seconds (10 rounds to a minute) but I have no way to know if this is true. Just basically the idea is you have sections of time in which characters act.

    I've noticed that if I am trying to do something and fail (say pick a lock), then spam the life out of it, I will see ALOT of the same number range pop up in a row. If I fail with a 3, I KNOW at this point to leave it for 15 seconds or so, because in my experience I'll hit 2-3-2-5-4-2-4-3-etc if I spam it.

    This is only my perception and ofc I am probably wrong.

    However, although the theory of dice rolls is purely random and memory-less, and assuming I understand the Gambler's Fallacy without having to explain it, I've come to the conclusion that DDO does NOT DO RANDOM. It does pseudo-random, which is randomness adjusted by other factors.

    I have no means to prove this. I can't even strongly argue it. It's just my perception so far, which admittedly is based on (a) a distracted view of the rolls (of course I don't always keep track) and (b) too small a sample. Just seems skewed to me, that's all.

    Aes.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istaria1 View Post
    However, although the theory of dice rolls is purely random and memory-less, and assuming I understand the Gambler's Fallacy without having to explain it, I've come to the conclusion that DDO does NOT DO RANDOM. It does pseudo-random, which is randomness adjusted by other factors.
    This is true of every "random" number generated in any video game. A true random number generator would be very difficult and expensive to use.

    The real quest of course is how good DDO's generator is. I've seen lots of people make claims about it but never present sufficient evidence to back up their claims. Results like the OP's might be enough to make me curious but I wouldn't make any claims without a much larger sample. (instead of 10 rolls try at least 1000 or even better 10000 and I'll start to take you seriously)

  12. #12
    The Hatchery Urist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krelar View Post
    The real quest of course is how good DDO's generator is. I've seen lots of people make claims about it but never present sufficient evidence to back up their claims. Results like the OP's might be enough to make me curious but I wouldn't make any claims without a much larger sample. (instead of 10 rolls try at least 1000 or even better 10000 and I'll start to take you seriously)
    I realise the plural of "anecdote" is not "evidence", but in a quest not too long ago I rolled a 10 on an open-lock check, I think 12 times in a row (in a short period of time, as it happens...).
    Many, many, people have reported seeing streaks in the "random" rolls, in just about all aspects of the game. If there's something wrong with Turbine's random number handling (and I suspect there is), it would seem to be pretty pervasive.

  13. #13
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    Dunno about fixed, and I often forget to pay attention to the actual number, but... I DO get the impression that either the generator is wonky and I roll very similar numbers for days at a time, or the rewards list should be expanded. IE, I've won lots of Haste potions, lots of 200xp, and one or 2 other potions multiple times. I've been too distracted to pay attention and say I rolled a silly amount of identical numbers, or if I roll various numbers all giving the same price, but in both cases I would wish Turbine to look into it. I'm sure expanding the ddo tables for the dd is trickier than doing the same in, say, Tablesmith, but if the latter takes a noob like me all of 5 minutes, most of which is typing speed, then an experienced programmer should not need a lot of time to do the former I think.

    Ah well, Here's to hoping

    Greetz,
    Red Orm

  14. #14
    Community Member wesclough's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Our guild constantly compares results, and the VIPs consistently get better results than the premiums. Maybe my tinfoil hat is on too tight, but there seems to be something going on there.
    My wife recently cut back to premium, and because she lacks the time and inclination I do the daily rolls for both of us... I have not seen such a discrepancy (in fact it often seems she gets better rolls than I do).

  15. #15
    Community Member Philibusta's Avatar
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    Yes, the DD rolls are fixed.

    They were fixed when the useless junk (collectibles, essences, etc) was removed and replaced with stuff that's actually worth using.
    All that is wrong with DDO, life, taxes, poltics, religion, music, fast food, education, the criminal justice system, the weather, society, the universe, and previously-discontinued-but-now-on-their-way-back snack cakes, is all the fault of Wizards of the Coast. I know this because Fred told me so, and Mind Flayers are smart.

  16. #16
    Community Member Kalimah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by enteriiblackwater View Post
    I am beginning to think they are, I decided to keep track of my last 10 rolls.

    I got 3 9 times out of 10, statistically the chance of doing that with a 100 die roll is astronomical, This is not just on 1 toon I have done this on 4 different toons.

    Sorry that's not a random roll. Something aint right with the way rolls are done.

    Ent
    I do not know if this applies to you and if not just pass on by this...but; i had this conversastion with a pal not long ago. He was seeing the same thing...3's on almost all his rolls. I thought it kinda odd too (hey I roll low lmost all the time, I got 100 exp on my last silver roll lol..pretty sure thats a 1).

    After we talked about it a bit and walked through what he was doing it became obvious that he was not rolling 3 everyday. What was happening is he was hitting the daily roll. It would do its thing and give him his reward. Then for the next roll it shows "3" at the bottom of the screen. Meaning that the next roll will cost 3 shards. He was taking that as an indication of what his roll was...it was not, it was telling him his next roll was going to cost 3 shards.

  17. #17
    Community Member djl's Avatar
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    I believe they are weighted, so that you get lower rolls more commonly than you get higher rolls.

    And, in computing, nothing is EVER truly random. RNG uses an algorithm to simulate randomness. In many games, it is possible through painstaking research and observation, to determine factors that do affect the RNG and therefore allow you as the player to gain control over it. A great example of this is in the console game FFXII.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartharok View Post
    rolling 3 9 times out of 10 is actually just as likely as rolling any 9 other rolls out of 10. The odds are low for doing so, but any 10 rolls are just as likely to be any other numbers.
    Actually no it's not. It's some 300000 times less likely than rolling each of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9 once in 10 rolls.

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalimah View Post
    I do not know if this applies to you and if not just pass on by this...but; i had this conversastion with a pal not long ago. He was seeing the same thing...3's on almost all his rolls. I thought it kinda odd too (hey I roll low lmost all the time, I got 100 exp on my last silver roll lol..pretty sure thats a 1).

    After we talked about it a bit and walked through what he was doing it became obvious that he was not rolling 3 everyday. What was happening is he was hitting the daily roll. It would do its thing and give him his reward. Then for the next roll it shows "3" at the bottom of the screen. Meaning that the next roll will cost 3 shards. He was taking that as an indication of what his roll was...it was not, it was telling him his next roll was going to cost 3 shards.
    Nah, Was getting my rolls from the dialogue window not the dice roll one.

    Ent
    Impi! wo 'nans' impi iyeza
    Obani bengathinta amabhubesi?

  20. #20
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    Here's my latest 170 rolls.






    You can see the minor oddness in the second one, but this sample size is wayyyyyy too low to declare anything. I'll wait until I hit 10,000 before passing judgment.

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