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  1. #321
    The Hatchery Hoglum's Avatar
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    Here’s a revised proposal which could help people who desire such:

    For those who haven’t read the whole thread, I have suggested making all new dungeons capable of handling & challenging up to 12 players. This is to give people who desire to play with large parties more options in the game. Again, I am not suggesting re-outfitting older dungeons, just a way to help move the game into the future & create content which could satisfy a variety of playstyles.

    There are some raid traits to dungeons that were pointed out. It’s my belief these challenges can be overcome. A short but perhaps not comprehensive list is as follows:

    1. Re-entry is forbidden (as was in old epics, btw).
    2. No ethereal shrines allowed.
    3. No Hirelings allowed.


    I do believe running under these conditions (&other raid traits I may have not listed) does indeed warrant extra reward. In order to adjust for this, there could be a way to alter the dungeon upon entry. Some possibilities:

    1. If the party has 7-12 members, these traits automatically kick in.
    2. There’s a toggle when opening the dungeon whereby players can choose “quest mode” or “raid mode”.
    3. When selecting the party, when people choose “raid party”, any dungeon capable of incorporating raid traits will be in “raid mode” upon entry.


    Since there is additional challenge involve running in raid mode (e.g. wipe = failure rather than going to the bar & washing hands), then all loot could have a +1 or +2 added to the level. Thus, quality of loot would be determined by dungeon level, difficulty & “raid mode” vs. “quest mode”.

    Now, under my proposal there could potentially be a thriving end game with a single update. Rather than receiving 4 “quests” and 1 “raid”, end gamer & raider could have 5 raid capable dungeons. I think this could be applied to both slayer areas and challenges. A challenge such as the drow fire arena could quite possibly be a lot of fun in a raid party.

  2. #322
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    So? If the big spending 4% are paying the bills then Turbine doesn't need the rest. They just need to keep feeding the stated desires of the 4% for raid bypassers, mana pots, otto boxes and whatever else these theoretical whales spend cash on. On the other hand you may be wrong about the 4% figure and the revenue base is actually much more broad than you'd like everyone to believe.
    3rd time now - already outlined why that isnt the case.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Of course neither you nor I have any actual Turbine sales data to confirm or deny any statement about how Turbine's revenue actually breaks down, but the logical conclusion of your statements is that Turbine's best interest is letting 4% of the player base drive strategic direction. I disagree, because unlike you, I suspect DDO's revenue base is actually much more broad and disperse than this 4% whale, 48% small, 48% negligible theory you keep advancing. And when they talk about introducing things like a new class or housing instead of focusing even more on raids, it's not because they're looking to satisfy the interests of 4%, but to serve what they see as broader segments of their paying player base.
    Im not posting theory, Im posting fact based on industry numbers. You continue to take the absolutist stance. No where did I state that Turbines ONLY income is from 4%. Youd understand this if you read and digest the entire post before commenting.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Bottom line: my broad/diverse revenue speculation is a better explanation for what Turbine is doing and for what Rowan said than your 4% speculation.
    Youre confirming what ive stated over years of posting history. You need to stop with the strawman argument that I somehow claimed 4% is paying all the bills, because if you actually read the entire post and digest it youll see 48-50% pay nothing or next to nothing, 48-50% are smaller time spenders and 4% are big spenders. Each and every time you try to simplify and my argument in order to make a far more refutable strawman, ima point this out.


    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    My premise has been restated a number of times, and every time rather than challenge it you've repeated points that are not in dispute and which actually agree with what I've said, like "Turbine can cater to multiple segments of the player base". Sure they can. The question is whether they should prioritize products aimed at one segment over the other, and if so, which segment's products should they invest more resources into..
    You have made no claim and stated no SPECIFIC premise, and continue to challenge others claims while hiding behind being nonspecific.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    The premise you and some others seem to have trouble with but keep dancing around is that actual product usage and sales figures are much more valuable than forum threads for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources. If their sales figures show that, despite persistent appeals by a small percentage of their customers, raids are actually not that strategically important to Turbine's bottom line, then they are not wrong to de-emphasize raids in favor of products that they have a track record of successfully achieving high use and roi from. For all we know, they may already have made a strategic decision to focus on casual gamers based on sales patterns since the f2p transition and are willing to sacrifice 10 or 20% of their customer base because their sales data shows they can be more profitable by offering products to the other 80 to 90% that are less expensive to produce and maintain.
    Sacrificing any percentage of the playerbase is a poor decision, as they have proven they have never had to do this in the past. No business in their right mind makes a decision to offload a percentage of their paying customers, when they have been able to cater to all 100% of them. They didnt sit in some board room and go "Ok guys, we're going to put raid timer bypass in the store, then stop making raids".

    And which products did they put out this update which they did not put out last expansion? Enhancement pass was not a paid product, as it was free for everyone. Citw had MORE quests, AND a raid. This expansion has LESS quests and NO RAID. Lets get speciic here - what product are they focusing on in place of raids?

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Rowan is looking at questions like raids vs classes vs housing vs other products, and the implication of his statement is that they do in fact have actual data - not speculations or recollections from 2010's lfm panels - that suggests increasing their emphasis on raiding has less potential roi than other products. If you want to actually argue with me instead of pretending to argue with me, then state and defend the opposite premise: that posts in forum threads are much more valuable than actual sales figures and make a convincing case to Rowan that he should make a strategic decision based much more on the passionate appeals of a fraction of his customers and much less on the aggregate sales data from all of his customers.
    I have already stated the opposite premise, but I havent needed to defend it yet, because what you continue to challenge is not my actual claim, its your strawman view of it you assembled out of snippets you quoted from my posts rather than reading them and understanding them in their entirety. This is indicated by you continually talking about 4% of the customer base being the only folks who matter financially as my supposed claim, which it is not. Ill defend the premise when you demonstrate you understood it in its entirety in the first place.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 10:25 AM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  3. #323
    The Hatchery Hoglum's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoglum View Post
    That doesn't mean nobody else went into Delera's last night. It just means nobody wanted to go in with you. Some people out there are swimming laps instead of playing base ball. They aren't looking for groups. They just want to swim. If they have to share the lane it crimps their swimming.

    To Iron: I apologize for this statement. I re-read it and it sounded like I was stating I did not think people like you. That was absolutely not what I was attempting to say. Poor writing on my side. I think you are a fine, well-spoken, intelligent person & I would run with you any day.

    Sorry.

  4. #324
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    I am still wondering how "Pay to Win" led to the Developers invaliding all the stuff we "Paid to Win", with free loot from free quests.
    Its quite easy to understand. When they sell character power directly, pretty soon the game becomes saturated with that level of character power. In order for character power sales to continue to be profitable, more character power needs to be introduced into the game, which can bought with shards now, and when they put the new raid in, they will sell more timer bypass. If they were to leave the game as is saturated with the character power people already bought, those sales will slow down and eventually dry up.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  5. #325
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Postumus View Post
    Hey man, he posted a chart in some thread from some website one time. Plus he said so. What other data could you possibly need?
    Ignoring the fact that the same chart is in this thread, are we?
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  6. #326
    Community Member Vint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    snip
    Don’t drink the Kool-Aid that these guys are drinking.

    Just because WOW or another big game does something that makes money, does not mean it will do well in a niche game like DDO.

    I won’t dwell or beat a dead horse on the issue. I will go back to playing with my new puppy and praying that the whales will save DDO.
    Flabby-Flaber-Flabo--Heifer-Oinks

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  7. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Im not posting theory, Im posting fact based on industry numbers.
    No - even if you provided a citation for industry numbers, you've offered nothing to show why those numbers apply to DDO. In the context of this discussion, they are theoretical.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    No where did I state that Turbines ONLY income is from 4%.
    I asked you "why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills." If you find that idea objectionable then you are conceding my position that 4% of DDO's player base doesn't actually provide most of the revenue. Now that you've moved toward my position, you can tell us what percentage of revenue actually comes from the top 4% of DDO's spenders based on your "industry numbers", and we'll haggle over that too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    You need to stop with the strawman argument that I somehow claimed 4% is paying all the bills, because if you actually read the entire post and digest it youll see 48-50% pay nothing or next to nothing, 48-50% are smaller time spenders and 4% are big spenders. Each and every time you try to simplify and my argument in order to make a far more refutable strawman, ima point this out.
    When I say your positions lead to the conclusion that the 4% are "the most relevant because they pay most of the bills" and you complain that I'm claiming you said "Turbines ONLY income is from 4%" then "ima" going to continue to beat you about the head and shoulders with your habitual misleading and contradictory statements.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    I have already stated the opposite premise, but I havent needed to defend it
    I'm comfortable with your refusal to argue your premise.

    hit_fido: actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base are much more valuable than forum threads representing a fraction of the player base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources.

    Chai: forum threads representing a fraction of the player base are much more valuable than actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources.

    That's where we leave it then!

  8. #328
    Community Member Ungood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Its quite easy to understand. When they sell character power directly, pretty soon the game becomes saturated with that level of character power. In order for character power sales to continue to be profitable, more character power needs to be introduced into the game, which can bought with shards now, and when they put the new raid in, they will sell more timer bypass. If they were to leave the game as is saturated with the character power people already bought, those sales will slow down and eventually dry up.
    It may be easy to understand, but the reality is your wrong about this.

    The better items come from Free Quests, that means, there is no incentive to buy them with shards, or purchase paid content to acquire them.

    Combine that with the fact that even if they put out a new raid, or whatever, only a very small portion of the player base would bother to run it after this debacle, and even less would bother to pay extra to speed up whatever grind process you involved in it, knowing that their money would not be well spent.

    Maybe that is something you would do, but you would be very, very, alone in it.

  9. #329
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    It may be easy to understand, but the reality is your wrong about this.
    Nope, its absolutely correct.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    The better items come from Free Quests, that means, there is no incentive to buy them with shards, or purchase paid content to acquire them.
    I explained this in my post. They get sold in the ASAH - for shards, which are purchased with RL$. Now that the old loot people paid for is not the top loot this new raid will introduce a new carrot to pay to circumvent the raid timer in order to get faster.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Combine that with the fact that even if they put out a new raid, or whatever, only a very small portion of the player base would bother to run it after this debacle, and even less would bother to pay extra to speed up whatever grind process you involved in it, knowing that their money would not be well spent.

    Maybe that is something you would do, but you would be very, very, alone in it.
    I wonder which portion of the player base that is exactly. Hmmm lets seee - the ones linking stacks of timer bypass when CiTW came out (and the raid was actually brought up)? Those folks werent alone in doing it, there were quite a few raid groups running 10 completion marathons over each weekend the first month or so after that raid was released and timer bypass was put in the store.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 11:35 AM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  10. #330
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post

    I'm comfortable with your refusal to argue your premise.
    Youre comfortable arguing against the straw man you have constructed from snippets quoted from my actual premise. The fact that you dont understand my actual premise is outlined below, where you attempt to state what my premise is, and fail to do so. Anyone who reads what I posted objectively understands what I am saying here.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    hit_fido: actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base are much more valuable than forum threads representing a fraction of the player base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources.

    Chai: forum threads representing a fraction of the player base are much more valuable than actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources.

    That's where we leave it then!
    If thats what you got from my posts, I can only conclude you only read the parts you quoted, and not the entirety of each post.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    When I say your positions lead to the conclusion that the 4% are "the most relevant because they pay most of the bills" and you complain that I'm claiming you said "Turbines ONLY income is from 4%" then "ima" going to continue to beat you about the head and shoulders with your habitual misleading and contradictory statements.
    5th time now - altready explained why Turbine cant ignore everybody but the 4% who spend the most. Youre not beating anyone over their head with any contradiction, because in order to strawman (yes its a verb now) that there is a contradiction in the first place, you have to ignore each time Ive explained why this isnt the case, including the original explanation which was in the original post you quoted that snippet out of but conveniently left out the part where I explained why they cant just ignore 96% of their customer base.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 11:46 AM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  11. #331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    I explained this in my post. They get sold in the ASAH - for shards, which are purchased with RL$. Now that the old loot peopel paid for is not the top loot this new raid will introduce a new carrot to pay to circumvent the raid timer in order to get faster.
    why teh F would i pay SHARDS for the **** lootgen dropping from chests?!?!? i can just run FREE quests and get it my dang self. or pay plat for it if i'm lazy. i've got plenty of plat

    and since lootgen is so good now... it takes away alot of the incentive to run raids. so unless any new raid has OMFG***BBQ amazing loot (which none really has had loot THAT good in ages) no one's gonna be stocking up on, or using, bypasses, either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    I wonder whach portion of the player base that is exactly. Hmmm lets seee - the ones linking stacks of timer bypass when CiTW came out? Those folks werent alone in doing it, there were quite a few raid groups running 10 completion marathons over each weekend the first month or so after that raid was released.
    and that was before loot went sideways. try again.
    Last edited by katz; 09-06-2013 at 11:38 AM.

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  12. #332
    Community Member Ungood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Nope, its absolutely correct.
    Based on what... your own imagination of the situation?

    I explained this in my post. They get sold in the ASAH - for shards, which are purchased with RL$. Now that the old loot peopel paid for is not the top loot this new raid will introduce a new carrot to pay to circumvent the raid timer in order to get faster.
    Maybe you are that much a fool, and that may be the case, where you would be first in line to buy bypass timers if a new raid came out, and you think everyone is just like you, or perhaps maybe you never raided, and are just bitter and think everyone else who raids is a fool. This is a prime example of being stuck in a bubble and not really having a clue.

    I wonder whach portion of the player base that is exactly. Hmmm lets seee - the ones linking stacks of timer bypass when CiTW came out? Those folks werent alone in doing it, there were quite a few raid groups running 10 completion marathons over each weekend the first month or so after that raid was released.
    Oh those people are long gone, burned to the last, and a good chuck of them very bitter about the new loot system. See they were willing to drop quite a bit of cash on new raids and such, building on the trust and premise of a game that for the last 5 years held true to the ideal that the best loot would be raid loot.

    That is no longer the case. And even if they put out a new raid that dropped the best loot ever to exist, they will never see the numbers they had before, maybe a few people might go for it, a few people that will hold out hope and trust in Turbine that their money won't be for nothing, but by and large, the community as a whole as been burned by this. The fact that Raids are dead, even near to brand spanking new top level raids like FoT and CitW, are rare to see, because the loot is simply not there anymore.

    I guess maybe you live in a world where you can break peoples trust and think they will still love and trust you, well, you will have a hard time in the real world if you think that, and with the changes that have been made, many players felt that Turbine broke their trust, invalidated those stacks of raid timers they spent money on, and that kind of mistake does not come cheap.

    So, while you can believe what you will, and cry tears of joy that opening some F2P quest box is exciting again, that means you most likely never knew the anticipation of opening a raid chest, however this was a death call to the raid scene.

    Look what happened to the Shroud after they fixed it, they reset it somewhat, and it became active again, but it never returned to it's former popular glory. That alone should have told you that mistakes like this never end well, and your dream of that in the future they will make mountains of money off some new raid they will make is a dream, a very sweet dream, but a totally unrealistic fantasy none the less.

    Maybe you live in a dream world Chai, and that's ok, Dreamers are not bad people, they are just not the right people to be giving advice on what to do in the real world.

  13. #333
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by katz View Post
    why teh F would i pay SHARDS for the **** lootgen dropping from chests?!?!? i can just run FREE quests and get it my dang self. or pay plat for it if i'm lazy. i've got plenty of plat
    You may not, but people do, and quite a bit of that stuff is on the ASAH right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by katz View Post
    and since lootgen is so good now... it takes away alot of the incentive to run raids. so unless any new raid has OMFG***BBQ amazing loot (which none really has had loot THAT good in ages) no one's gonna be stocking up on, or using, bypasses, either.
    It wont subtract from the incentive to run the new raid, which should have better loot than the new loot gen. People will pay to bypass timer to get that faster - until that loot is also saturated in the demographic that pays to attain loot and attain loot faster.

    Quote Originally Posted by katz View Post
    and that was before loot went sideways. try again.
    Welcome to the current way the game is monetized. No need to try again, I nailed it the first time.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 11:59 AM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  14. #334
    Community Member Vint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Welcome to the current way the game is monetized. No need to try again, I nailed it the first time.
    I don’t know how these forumites keep overlooking this. Turbine has stayed true to not selling raid loot. BUT, since the current best loot does not come out of a raid, they still monetize it by people using the asah.

    Maybe Turbines data shows that people are not buying enough bypasses to make up for the cost of making a raid, so they decided against even making one. Or could it be that they can’t monetize raid loot so they make the uberest loot in the game come out of regular quests.

    As I see it, Turbine is alienating the hard core raiders and hoping and praying that enough people will make up for those leaving by paying for asah gear or hoping that they will purchase all the new Halloween pets, coming soon.
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  15. #335
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Based on what... your own imagination of the situation?
    My correct observation of the situation.



    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Maybe you are that much a fool, and that may be the case, where you would be first in line to buy bypass timers if a new raid came out, and you think everyone is just like you, or perhaps maybe you never raided, and are just bitter and think everyone else who raids is a fool. This is a prime example of being stuck in a bubble and not really having a clue.
    Here we go with the personal argumentation again. This always happens when I present a stance that cant itself be refuted. THe personal shenanigans begin. This is not a personal argument and I will kindly ask you to refrain from turning it into one. More attempts to do so will be well understood as an indicator that no logic can be used to refute my stance on the issue. If that logic existed, it would be posted here, instead of this personal banter which has no bearing on the discussion.



    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Oh those people are long gone, burned to the last, and a good chuck of them very bitter about the new loot system. See they were willing to drop quite a bit of cash on new raids and such, building on the trust and premise of a game that for the last 5 years held true to the ideal that the best loot would be raid loot.
    They return when a new update comes out, play it until they attain what they want, and then leave again. There is historical evidence in the log on information that indicates this around most updates. Once those folks attain what they want and the game gets boring again due to nothing left for them to do (which they desire to do) they leave again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    That is no longer the case. And even if they put out a new raid that dropped the best loot ever to exist, they will never see the numbers they had before, maybe a few people might go for it, a few people that will hold out hope and trust in Turbine that their money won't be for nothing, but by and large, the community as a whole as been burned by this. The fact that Raids are dead, even near to brand spanking new top level raids like FoT and CitW, are rare to see, because the loot is simply not there anymore.
    This is ABSOLUTELY the case, and is how this game is monetized currently. This is what happens when there is massive support for p2w/paid circumvention/pay for character power etc....it begets more of the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    I guess maybe you live in a world where you can break peoples trust and think they will still love and trust you, well, you will have a hard time in the real world if you think that, and with the changes that have been made, many players felt that Turbine broke their trust, invalidated those stacks of raid timers they spent money on, and that kind of mistake does not come cheap.
    Youll see how wrong you are on this when the new raid comes out, has attractive loot, and people are paying for bypass timers again in order to obtain that loot as quickly as possible. The only possible way I can even be wrong on this is if the loot sucked in the new raid - that would be a poor business decision. I doubt this will be the case though, because it clear they understand the crowd that pays to acquire is already saturated with that old loot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    So, while you can believe what you will, and cry tears of joy that opening some F2P quest box is exciting again, that means you most likely never knew the anticipation of opening a raid chest, however this was a death call to the raid scene.
    More personal banter, cute...You also do understand Im one of the people arguing IN FAVOR OF keeping the raid scene intact, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Look what happened to the Shroud after they fixed it, they reset it somewhat, and it became active again, but it never returned to it's former popular glory. That alone should have told you that mistakes like this never end well, and your dream of that in the future they will make mountains of money off some new raid they will make is a dream, a very sweet dream, but a totally unrealistic fantasy none the less.
    The shroud was not endgame in an era where character power was for sale for RL$. Its not even an apples to oranges observation, its more like apples to sherman tanks. In fact, the shroud was not endgame when what you are outlining happened either. Never returned to its former glory? Youre talking about something that happened in 2010, to a raid that was endgame in 2008-2009. It wasnt in its former glory to begin with at that time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ungood View Post
    Maybe you live in a dream world Chai, and that's ok, Dreamers are not bad people, they are just not the right people to be giving advice on what to do in the real world.
    No logic to refute stance with, no problem, simply make more personal comments. The minute people start attacking the poster, it is an indication that poster should be taken MORE seriously and not less, because if logic existed to refute that posters premise, it would have been posted and the ad hominem would not be necessary.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 12:18 PM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  16. #336
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    Your post in it's entirety:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Absolutely not, and heres why: The social gaming model for monetizing MMOs does NOT hinge on total headcount. It hinges on getting a much smaller number of players to spend much larger amounts of money than the average spender spends, making up for the much higher quantity of players who spend little to no money, or moderate money. The social gaming model of MMO monetization in fact, clearly understands that roughly half of the players will not pay a dime, or very little if there are mandatory expenditures required. In DDOs case these are people who let their points pile up and acquire content with said points when needed. Roughly half spend a small amount, and a few percentage points, ~2-4% spend ALOT.

    So:

    48-49% very little to no spending
    48-49% moderate spending
    2-4% whales. Wallet elite. Big spenders.

    And surprise surprise, the monetization model used also does not require attendance during most of the games availability cycle. It merely requires that players who attrite when they are bored come back when new power creep is introduced, buy into it heavily, then they can do what they want - and if that means playing some other game between the timeframes of post acquisition of all desired items and new content being released, then so be it. Saying this doesn't affect the rest of the player base however, is hilarious. It doesn't affect them personally (no one is butthurt because someone else can buy loot for instance) but it does affect them nonetheless. It will be cute and mildly entertaining to read all of the pre-supposed excuses for why the LFMs are all dried up again in a couple months.
    I see the part where you state that "The social gaming model for monetizing MMOs does NOT hinge on total headcount" and that "the monetization model used also does not require attendance during most of the games availability cycle" - the parts that you directly contradict when you say "Social games tolerate most of their populace being small time spenders because the game needs to be full"

    Point out the part where you say "they cant just ignore 96% of their customer base" and discuss how that is compatible with "It merely requires that players who attrite when they are bored come back when new power creep is introduced".

    Then tell us all again where you saw "Turbines ONLY income is from 4%" when I asked you "why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills."

    Then feel free to respond yet again with another vapid post about how I'm strawman-ing you by pointing out your inconsistent and contradictory statements on the "social gaming model", note that you've failed to show it applies to DDO, and observe that when you claim to disagree with me that "actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base are much more valuable than forum threads representing a fraction of the player base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources" that you are, despite your denials, supporting the opposite premise that "forum threads representing a fraction of the player base are much more valuable than actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources."

  17. #337
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    Quote Originally Posted by katz View Post
    why teh F would i pay SHARDS for the **** lootgen dropping from chests?!?!? i can just run FREE quests and get it my dang self. or pay plat for it if i'm lazy. i've got plenty of plat
    Well, there are many reasons. 1) You don't get the good random loot generated, hence "random"; 2) You don't have the time or inclination to grind quests; and/or 3) You have the means to purchase AS and buy things off the AS AH. Many of the best items are found on the AS AH these days, not the pp AH. Even when players ignore the AS, out of principle, someone who doesn't can just purchase it with pp and re-post it for AS.

    Quote Originally Posted by katz View Post
    and since lootgen is so good now... it takes away alot of the incentive to run raids. so unless any new raid has OMFG***BBQ amazing loot (which none really has had loot THAT good in ages) no one's gonna be stocking up on, or using, bypasses, either.
    While some random gen loot is great - again - it is still random. Raids and chains still give great, if not some of the best items for average gamers people equip their characters. Plenty of reason to run some of the raids.

    While power gamers may not have a reason to run raids after they max out equipment, if you are looking at chest levels for random loot generation - end game raids will give you a better chance than most regular quests at high level. Of course, raids are about the "challenge'" though, right? Lol. It is always funny how many power gamers really don't want challenge - they just want to grind easy quests for powerful loot to help make a challenge not so much of one.
    Last edited by Hafeal; 09-06-2013 at 12:22 PM.
    The evolution of DDO: Stormreach to Eberron Unlimited to Dungeons & Dragons Online
    -1- -2- -3- -4- -5- -6- -7- -8- -9- years & still spawning kobolds
    Who are the devs anyway? DDO Peeps Tracker


  18. #338
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Sure I did. The market segment for low quality mass produced chocolate (ala Hershey's) is a different market segment than for luxury chocolate (aka "the best chocolate in the world" - your words). Your example describes a company that makes "the best chocolates in the world" like a Marcolini or a Vosges deciding to expand or transition from one segment (luxury chocolates) into another (retail mass market chocolate) dominated by Hershey's. And I explained to you what a management team looking at that would do, regardless of your jaded reactions. As an example, it doesn't support the thesis that a company basing strategic decisions on their own actual sales data would inevitably make poorer decisions than if they base their decisions on what their most vocal customers post on a forum.
    Ummmm…no. The market segment is chocolate. There really is no such thing a luxury chocolate. That’s like saying there is a market segment for luxury beer, which there isn’t.

    The difference between “luxury chocolate,” and “economy chocolate” is arbitrary, as the components are the same in all cases (milk, cocoa, and sugar). You made those definitions, and I didn’t. You made them because, well, your argument stinks. So you’re blurring the lines.

    And as for “what a management team would do,” you’re high. The do that **** AFTER someone determines the direction you’re going to go, mainly because everyone is going to justify after-the-fact why the decision is being made.

    You’re obviously some high school kid with maybe a semester business admin class under their belt. This is not the way things are done in most corporations.

    To further illustrate, let me go back over your laughable comments:

    No. A business owner would examine the risk/reward potential of attempting to move into a market segment with one or two dominant and entrenched competitors and decide whether trading the high profit margins that luxury chocolate commands for lower profit margins spread over a wider customer base makes any sense. Part of that analysis would include projections on how long it would take to penetrate that market segment to the degree necessary to recoup both the investment in the strategic venture and the opportunity cost from losing potential returns they might have had by investing in a different growth strategy.

    The highlighted part is what makes this the most comical, mainly because those “projections” are numbers that are literally pulled out of someone’s ***. They are pure, 100% speculation. And if that is the data that drives your decision making, then you are building a projection process based on pure, speculative fantasy.

    There is no way, whatsoever, that you can quantify a consumer’s spending impulse or reaction. Period. If you project that 10% of the market will buy your chocolate, there is no way to prove that. Plus, there is no way you can guarantee that they will purchase your chocolate bar a second, third, and fourth time. It is literally all idle speculation.

    Again, your comments are a complete steaming load of BS. But please continue to argue to the contrary. It is rather illustrative of you total lack of understanding when it comes to business and product development.

    There is a reason why those “entrenched” companies are “entrenched.” They’ve crushed their competitors, bought them out, or both. You go in as a complete unknown, you’d better have a truckload of cash to burn to make headway with taking them on, because they can sink you in so many ways, it’s not even funny.

    So, I know you think your scoring points. The reality is that you’re still relegated to the kiddie table when it comes to this type of discussion.



    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Look, if you're worried about paying customers, then actual sales figures are not only entirely populated by paying customers, but also account for all paying customers, not just the ones posting threads. That certainly trumps forum threads that represent a fraction of the paying player base. So game set match all you want, but you keep scoring points for what I'm saying: actual usage and sales figures are much more valuable than forum threads.
    Ok, genius, seeing that the devs were occupied in planning a raid, a new player class, and player housing, show me the sales figures that even remotely justify player housing being in the mix.

    Wait, let me answer that for you: you can’t. Those numbers don’t exist.

    And even if they have 58% of the people that pay for the game saying they want player housing, they have zero details on the expectations of that population as it relates to that specific request. So they can implement it 100% wrong, and it achieves the exact same effect as if they threw a dart at a dart board to determine their next offering. With a fairly similar outcome.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    At any rate, for the sake of passionate raid loving players I hope many, many more players take to the forums and express their interest in having more than the one raid that's been alluded to. A significant mass of player appeals may be required if the data Rowan has shows more use and higher returns from producing things like random pet baskets, otto boxes and +x tomes than from producing raids. A few threads here and there with the same 40 or 50 odd players may not be seen as significant, and the disappointing reality might be that the player (and revenue) base has already shifted away from achievement oriented players and to casual players entertained by less "challenging" and more "relaxing" product purchases (which also tend to be less expensive products for Turbine to produce and maintain).
    Your assumption is that the passionate players are dead wrong. The passionate players are passionate because the see the game for what it is. They are also passionate because, for the most part, they know what it has that other games lack, otherwise they would not stick to the game with such a passion.

    As for casual players – of which I am one – I don’t see them sinking money into things like player housing as that requires some actual investment in the game. By definition, a casual player is not going to go for that.

    Nor would a “casual” player sink money into a specific player class. They’d use what is available to them without the extra purchase.

    You think a “casual” football fan purchases season tickets, or paints themselves in the colors of their team? No, they don’t make those kinds of investments – but the passionate ones do. A casual fan of something can be just as casual elsewhere with the same amount of investment.

    A sports team caters to both, but goes out of their way for the serious fans. Those people are a guaranteed source of income, and are often evangelical in bringing more people to come see their team.

    But hey, you’re such a business expert, you know this right?

    Your seat at the kiddies table awaits you…

  19. #339
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Your post in it's entirety:



    I see the part where you state that "The social gaming model for monetizing MMOs does NOT hinge on total headcount" and that "the monetization model used also does not require attendance during most of the games availability cycle" - the parts that you directly contradict when you say "Social games tolerate most of their populace being small time spenders because the game needs to be full"

    Point out the part where you say "they cant just ignore 96% of their customer base" and discuss how that is compatible with "It merely requires that players who attrite when they are bored come back when new power creep is introduced".

    Then tell us all again where you saw "Turbines ONLY income is from 4%" when I asked you "why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills."

    Then feel free to respond yet again with another vapid post about how I'm strawman-ing you by pointing out your inconsistent and contradictory statements on the "social gaming model", note that you've failed to show it applies to DDO, and observe that when you claim to disagree with me that "actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base are much more valuable than forum threads representing a fraction of the player base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources" that you are, despite your denials, supporting the opposite premise that "forum threads representing a fraction of the player base are much more valuable than actual product usage and sales figures from the entire customer base for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources."
    The original post where I showed those percentages is actually over 2 years old.

    Youre now quoting my posts from DIFFERENT threads, while slicing and dicing posts from THIS thread to strawman my stance in order to have something far weaker than my actual premise to refute. Ive explained quite a few times now in THIS thread why Turbine (as well as all other SG and MMO) do not ignore the majority of light/non spenders even though a smaller portion of their population spends larger amounts of money.

    I never stated "Turbines ONLY income is from 4%" - this never happened. I would continue to say you dont understand my premise, but this is incorrect. You do understand it, understand that its not refutable with logic, so you purposely ignore the parts you have no answer for and continue to drum on the stuff you piece mealed together from my posts in THIS thread - which creates an incomplete straw man version that isnt even my stance on the issue.

    Understanding that SG marketing strategy does not hinge on total headcount, and that 4% of the customer base are the big spenders =/= Turbine only needs 4% of their paying customers. Ive explained this in THIS thread 3 times, when you quoted posts from THIS thread, tried to slice them up and ignore the entire post, leaving out all the parts you have no answer for.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-06-2013 at 01:38 PM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  20. #340
    Community Member Thrudh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Well meaning players with a passion for raiding are here righteously petitioning Turbine to emphasize raiding more than what they've promised for the next year or so, arguing that Turbine will benefit because these players know regardless of whatever data Turbine has, that their opinions about the relative importance of raids to the overall playerbase and the financial return Turbine would see are correct. And here I come p**sing in cheerios pointing out that actually, these well meaning players may not be correct, and that Turbine may in fact be correctly emphasizing other activities over raiding.
    What's really funny is most of these people who are yelling at Turbine to make more raids have multiple posts in other threads where they talk about how much they hate DDO, and how they'll never give another dime to Turbine.

    Maybe the devs have done some correlation and know who to ignore? Not much point in catering to the crowd that swears never to give you a cent ever again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    We are no more d000m'd then we were a week ago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eth View Post
    When you stop caring about xp/min this game becomes really fun. Trust me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gary_Gygax
    No single character has all the skills and resources needed to guarantee success in all endeavors; favorable results can usually only be achieved through group effort. No single player character wins, in the sense that he or she defeats all other player characters; the goal of the forces of good can only be attained through cooperation, so that victory is a group achievement rather than an individual one.

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