Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?
That may not be Turbine's best course of action if you are wildly incorrect about the 4% figure or if you are incorrect about what Turbine's most valuable source of data is when setting priorities, for example, actual usage and spending figures tabulated from the entire player base instead of forum threads and recollection misdirection. But we know your position where that is concerned.
A level cap challenging raid has the following side effects on players:
- They will grind EDs/6-man named items (though not the sad jokes from the double update 19 patch) for small power increases (potential consumable use)
- They will TR their characters more for small power increases (potential consumable use)
- They will continue to pay/play with their guild
Without a raid with worthwhile items/challenge, you get the opposite. People leave, it's boring, no motivation. There are more side effects than just the raids themselves.
But if they only look at data and say "less raid for the next year, more $", then they aren't looking at the whole picture.
Second example: the loot in double update 19 is dreadful, but that's why we were asked to pre-pay without knowing what was coming. Data would show that people paid, not that disappointed people regret paying.
Once you start to copy the big corps, you lose loyal customers and gain nothing. People playing games like the one you're all of a sudden trying to emulate will stay with theirs, because its what they signed up for. The people that stayed with you BECAUSE you were different? Yeah, peace.
Oh, and you didn't read the example.
They are already IN the market segment. And someone makes the numbers look appealing to change their brand (and that happens a lot). Because the one thing about numbers is that you can bend them just about as easily as Silly Putty.
You obviously have never worked in the business world, or have done any product development...
Oh, and by the way, I love it when people use these highly analytical and sterile examples of how someone looks at the data, and tries to figure out their market penetration, return on investment, and all of that other nonsense. I just about LMAO whenever I get into a project and they estimate that'll take X months, for Y dollars / Euros / Yen / whatever, and that in the years they'll have W% of the market share, and will have pulled Z dollars in revenue, and calculate their profit from those figures.
Not ONCE have I ever seen that **** E-V-E-R come to pass - never. I've worked on (almost literally) dozens of large-scale projects with this type of forecasting and projecting. It all ends up being a big, steaming load of bull.
I'm actually more accurate with my off-the-cuff estimations than these people can with their assembled data, and standard processes.
At any rate, for the sake of passionate raid loving players I hope many, many more players take to the forums and express their interest in having more than the one raid that's been alluded to. A significant mass of player appeals may be required if the data Rowan has shows more use and higher returns from producing things like random pet baskets, otto boxes and +x tomes than from producing raids. A few threads here and there with the same 40 or 50 odd players may not be seen as significant, and the disappointing reality might be that the player (and revenue) base has already shifted away from achievement oriented players and to casual players entertained by less "challenging" and more "relaxing" product purchases (which also tend to be less expensive products for Turbine to produce and maintain).
I mean this sincerely: good luck on convincing them!
Youre basically strawmanning my premise into something far more simple and less accurate than it actually is by quoting snippets of it here and there and putting only those things together, which draws an inaccurate and incomplete picture of what I am saying. Youre also doing something I see a lot on these forums over the years. Challenging someones claim without having your own premise in the discussion. I cannot confirm what you said, because you've said nothing, other than to challenge others claims. No premise = nothing to confirm or deny. Want to join the discussion? State and defend your premise of the current situation and how it would affect the future of the game if this was the master plan and they just continue forward with it.
Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.
Well said. My personal experience mirrors this pretty closely.
I ran the Von series every three days for a long time. (Even when we had to reflag each time!) But, now, I have no reason to run it except once or twice a life for xp.
I used to run tempest spine for loot. Now I run it once a life for xp and the joy of raging around the mountain and caves with 11 other lunatics.
I ran the titan 120 on one character. 80 on another. And that's just two of my characters. I don't run it anymore. No reason to. The loot has been surpassed.
I ran the shroud daily when the cap was 16. Now I run it once every 4 months or so on a whim.
I ran CITW nearly daily for a while, though I do think there are a couple items in here that are still relevant.
I ran FoT nearly daily until you changed it. Or "fixed" it as you say. For me, the stacking penalty to reflex save was too much and it ****ed me off and I quit raiding (and have only run tempest spine and von5 heroic at level since.)
I used to love raiding... maybe again someday.
Is it the opinion of us all that the raid 'TOD' is now a dead raid? Are the rings worth it anymore?
The Raids pre -req quests, if all run on elite, give us the Yugoloth potions as a Patron Favor Reward. And I think it is the only reason to get this pack now.
I'm still a fan of 20% healing amp on a ring. I really wish Turbine would add this to Yellow slots so I could finaly give this up.
i still run it out of nostalgia, I LOVED this raid back in the day. Loved that Elite TOD used to be harder that most of the epic content (same with the other Amrath quests). It was a great pack back in the day but our power-creep killed it.
Of course neither you nor I have any actual Turbine sales data to confirm or deny any statement about how Turbine's revenue actually breaks down, but the logical conclusion of your statements is that Turbine's best interest is letting 4% of the player base drive strategic direction. I disagree, because unlike you, I suspect DDO's revenue base is actually much more broad and disperse than this 4% whale, 48% small, 48% negligible theory you keep advancing. And when they talk about introducing things like a new class or housing instead of focusing even more on raids, it's not because they're looking to satisfy the interests of 4%, but to serve what they see as broader segments of their paying player base.
Bottom line: my broad/diverse revenue speculation is a better explanation for what Turbine is doing and for what Rowan said than your 4% speculation.
The premise you and some others seem to have trouble with but keep dancing around is that actual product usage and sales figures are much more valuable than forum threads for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources. If their sales figures show that, despite persistent appeals by a small percentage of their customers, raids are actually not that strategically important to Turbine's bottom line, then they are not wrong to de-emphasize raids in favor of products that they have a track record of successfully achieving high use and roi from. For all we know, they may already have made a strategic decision to focus on casual gamers based on sales patterns since the f2p transition and are willing to sacrifice 10 or 20% of their customer base because their sales data shows they can be more profitable by offering products to the other 80 to 90% that are less expensive to produce and maintain.
Rowan is looking at questions like raids vs classes vs housing vs other products, and the implication of his statement is that they do in fact have actual data - not speculations or recollections from 2010's lfm panels - that suggests increasing their emphasis on raiding has less potential roi than other products. If you want to actually argue with me instead of pretending to argue with me, then state and defend the opposite premise: that posts in forum threads are much more valuable than actual sales figures and make a convincing case to Rowan that he should make a strategic decision based much more on the passionate appeals of a fraction of his customers and much less on the aggregate sales data from all of his customers.
Last edited by hit_fido; 09-06-2013 at 09:50 AM.
This is what happens to raids or loot that drop more specifically in raids. Take away a reason to run a quest/raid or invalidate the loot and don't keep it updated than players won't run the content. Fun factor isn't enough to keep them active.
And look, you're welcome to fill in context you think I've left out, but when today you say:
Last edited by hit_fido; 09-06-2013 at 10:02 AM.
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