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  1. #301
    Community Member PermaBanned's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LordPiglet View Post
    Adding a chance for heroic comms in all epic raids would also help.
    An excellent example of worthwhile loot. A raid who's loot has gone from "uber" to "decent" (lookin' at you LoB!) would be more worth running if things like Comms were available. Having a half dozen sources of those would help revive a "raiding circuit," keep older raids relevant, and continue encouraging pack sales - where right now I don't recommend the Vault of the Artificers (or whatever that pack is called) to anyone. Other than a nifty pair of boots, there's really nothing there for me.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    That is not my stated position
    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    As paying customers WE and WE ALONE have the MOST relevant data regarding the profitability of the company, because it is we, the paying customers who pay the bills.
    It doesn't get any plainer than that but you can walk it back if you want. Paying customers, "ALONE". And we already know who you think dominates the paying part of this - the 4% whale segment. I mean, why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills.

    That may not be Turbine's best course of action if you are wildly incorrect about the 4% figure or if you are incorrect about what Turbine's most valuable source of data is when setting priorities, for example, actual usage and spending figures tabulated from the entire player base instead of forum threads and recollection misdirection. But we know your position where that is concerned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Turbine can cater to both playstyles being debated here.
    I am glad to see you continue to agree with and confirm what I've said.

  3. #303
    Community Member Postumus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post

    That may not be Turbine's best course of action if you are wildly incorrect about the 4% figure or if you are incorrect about what Turbine's most valuable source of data is when setting priorities, for example, actual usage and spending figures tabulated from the entire player base instead of forum threads and recollection misdirection. But we know your position where that is concerned.

    Hey man, he posted a chart in some thread from some website one time. Plus he said so. What other data could you possibly need?

  4. #304
    Community Member Qhualor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    It doesn't get any plainer than that but you can walk it back if you want. Paying customers, "ALONE". And we already know who you think dominates the paying part of this - the 4% whale segment. I mean, why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills.

    That may not be Turbine's best course of action if you are wildly incorrect about the 4% figure or if you are incorrect about what Turbine's most valuable source of data is when setting priorities, for example, actual usage and spending figures tabulated from the entire player base instead of forum threads and recollection misdirection. But we know your position where that is concerned.



    I am glad to see you continue to agree with and confirm what I've said.
    snipping posts to make yourself look better doesn't make your argument any better. just looks petty.

  5. #305
    Community Member soloist12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Apply this in both directions. If you're going to dismiss the value of whatever data Turbine holds on the basis that Turbine's agenda is reason enough to distrust them, then recollections and theories about how many players will actually run raids and spend money on them based on personal agendas, forum group think, limited visibility of a large set of data (lfm panels? c'mon) are certainly no better and should also be distrusted.
    See here's the thing, you need to scope out the larger picture.

    A level cap challenging raid has the following side effects on players:

    - They will grind EDs/6-man named items (though not the sad jokes from the double update 19 patch) for small power increases (potential consumable use)
    - They will TR their characters more for small power increases (potential consumable use)
    - They will continue to pay/play with their guild


    Without a raid with worthwhile items/challenge, you get the opposite. People leave, it's boring, no motivation. There are more side effects than just the raids themselves.

  6. #306
    Community Member soloist12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    If the decision Rowan faces is, for example, invest resources in two more raids instead of one raid and one new class, and his data shows that their last two raids produced low usage and low return while the last two classes they introduced produced a high purchase rate and high return, what do you think he isn't seeing that should compel him to choose the former and not the latter?
    Well as for the last 2 raids, citw needed a design overhall, it was one of, if not the worst raid released (albeit good loot, because we still run it). FoT was a decent raid, but the loot was meh.

    But if they only look at data and say "less raid for the next year, more $", then they aren't looking at the whole picture.


    Second example: the loot in double update 19 is dreadful, but that's why we were asked to pre-pay without knowing what was coming. Data would show that people paid, not that disappointed people regret paying.

  7. #307
    Community Member soloist12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsquishwizzy View Post
    Let me enlighten some of you by using an example that is not DDO-based. Let’s use chocolate.

    There is a major difference between who makes the best chocolate in the world, and who makes the most of it. The largest manufacturers of chocolate in the world are Hershey and Mars. Do they make the best chocolate in the world?

    Who makes the best is highly subjective. I love Hershey’s chocolate. Not everyone does.

    Hershey’s pulls in a LOT of revenue. The one that makes the best chocolate doesn’t pull in anywhere near what Hershey or Mars do. The difference is whether they are profitable, and whether they have a strong enough customer base to survive the business environment.

    However, if you use data-driven decisions, the data will ultimately conclude that the company that makes the best chocolate in the world obviously does not make the best chocolate, because they make FAR less in revenue than Hershey or Mars. So, it is a slam-dunk decision to change their chocolate formula to taste like Hershey Bars because those are WAY more popular, and therefore will “guarantee” financial success. This is also backed up by people who didn’t like your chocolate because they liked Hershey’s chocolate better, and said so in a customer survey.

    The only problem is that the people who were you loyal customers will bolt because they liked the taste of your chocolate, and now it tastes like a Hershey Bar (which they can undoubtedly buy for less just about anywhere). You’re not getting new customers because, well, Hershey has a well-known brand name, you don’t. You make a very similar product, but you have nowhere near the marketing clout, or influence in the market hat Hershey or Mars do.

    Unless the polar alignment of the earth changes, you’re going to get crushed by your huge competitors. And your loyal customers abandoned you because you no longer make the chocolate they like, so you can’t fall back on them any more.

    This is the type of idiocy that data-driven decisions can produce.

    So spare me the justifications about what these people are doing for the game.

    Absolutely perfect, you can get out of my head now.

    This post needs to be framed and posted at the entrance of ANY company, not just gaming.

  8. #308
    Community Member soloist12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    But niche games do not have high populations and you want a higher population.

    Cannot have it both ways. So what do you want? Higher population and less niche or more niche and less population?

    You have already stated you want higher population so you will have to live with less niche.
    Doesn't work that way. You break away from you're exclusive model and attempt to copy mainstream, you lose a huge part of the people that stayed with you BECAUSE you were unique.

    Once you start to copy the big corps, you lose loyal customers and gain nothing. People playing games like the one you're all of a sudden trying to emulate will stay with theirs, because its what they signed up for. The people that stayed with you BECAUSE you were different? Yeah, peace.

  9. #309
    Community Member bsquishwizzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    No. A business owner would examine the risk/reward potential of attempting to move into a market segment with one or two dominant and entrenched competitors and decide whether trading the high profit margins that luxury chocolate commands for lower profit margins spread over a wider customer base makes any sense. Part of that analysis would include projections on how long it would take to penetrate that market segment to the degree necessary to recoup both the investment in the strategic venture and the opportunity cost from losing potential returns they might have had by investing in a different growth strategy.

    The data would tell the business owner what the actual spending habits of his customers are, and whether they tend to purchase only the most luxurious and expensive chocolates, or whether most purchases are grouped in the less expensive side of their product offering. Customers may claim in surveys that they will only purchase expensive chocolates, but the proof is in the purchase, and the owner could certainly factor those real sales figures into the larger question of strategic direction.
    Wow, what a bunch of business school theoretical bull...

    Oh, and you didn't read the example.

    They are already IN the market segment. And someone makes the numbers look appealing to change their brand (and that happens a lot). Because the one thing about numbers is that you can bend them just about as easily as Silly Putty.

    You obviously have never worked in the business world, or have done any product development...

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    That is not unlike the decision Rowan hints at - he has limited resources; what is the projected risk/reward of investing in one direction versus another. And what does he trust more when deciding direction: actual sales figures, or forum threads?
    Forum threads are mostly populated mostly by paying customers. Exit surveys are not.

    Game...set...match.

  10. #310
    Community Member bsquishwizzy's Avatar
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    Oh, and by the way, I love it when people use these highly analytical and sterile examples of how someone looks at the data, and tries to figure out their market penetration, return on investment, and all of that other nonsense. I just about LMAO whenever I get into a project and they estimate that'll take X months, for Y dollars / Euros / Yen / whatever, and that in the years they'll have W% of the market share, and will have pulled Z dollars in revenue, and calculate their profit from those figures.

    Not ONCE have I ever seen that **** E-V-E-R come to pass - never. I've worked on (almost literally) dozens of large-scale projects with this type of forecasting and projecting. It all ends up being a big, steaming load of bull.

    I'm actually more accurate with my off-the-cuff estimations than these people can with their assembled data, and standard processes.

  11. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsquishwizzy View Post
    Oh, and you didn't read the example.

    They are already IN the market segment.
    Sure I did. The market segment for low quality mass produced chocolate (ala Hershey's) is a different market segment than for luxury chocolate (aka "the best chocolate in the world" - your words). Your example describes a company that makes "the best chocolates in the world" like a Marcolini or a Vosges deciding to expand or transition from one segment (luxury chocolates) into another (retail mass market chocolate) dominated by Hershey's. And I explained to you what a management team looking at that would do, regardless of your jaded reactions. As an example, it doesn't support the thesis that a company basing strategic decisions on their own actual sales data would inevitably make poorer decisions than if they base their decisions on what their most vocal customers post on a forum.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    And what does he trust more when deciding direction: actual sales figures, or forum threads?
    Quote Originally Posted by bsquishwizzy View Post
    Forum threads are mostly populated mostly by paying customers. Exit surveys are not.

    Game...set...match.
    Look, if you're worried about paying customers, then actual sales figures are not only entirely populated by paying customers, but also account for all paying customers, not just the ones posting threads. That certainly trumps forum threads that represent a fraction of the paying player base. So game set match all you want, but you keep scoring points for what I'm saying: actual usage and sales figures are much more valuable than forum threads.

    At any rate, for the sake of passionate raid loving players I hope many, many more players take to the forums and express their interest in having more than the one raid that's been alluded to. A significant mass of player appeals may be required if the data Rowan has shows more use and higher returns from producing things like random pet baskets, otto boxes and +x tomes than from producing raids. A few threads here and there with the same 40 or 50 odd players may not be seen as significant, and the disappointing reality might be that the player (and revenue) base has already shifted away from achievement oriented players and to casual players entertained by less "challenging" and more "relaxing" product purchases (which also tend to be less expensive products for Turbine to produce and maintain).

    I mean this sincerely: good luck on convincing them!

  12. #312
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    It doesn't get any plainer than that but you can walk it back if you want. Paying customers, "ALONE". And we already know who you think dominates the paying part of this - the 4% whale segment. I mean, why are you surprised if Turbine proceeds in exactly the direction you've laid out for them: listen to the 4% - they're the most relevant because they pay most of the bills.

    That may not be Turbine's best course of action if you are wildly incorrect about the 4% figure or if you are incorrect about what Turbine's most valuable source of data is when setting priorities, for example, actual usage and spending figures tabulated from the entire player base instead of forum threads and recollection misdirection. But we know your position where that is concerned.



    I am glad to see you continue to agree with and confirm what I've said.
    Again you're making an argument of absolute, when the discussion is that of degree. I also outlined why they CANNOT simply listen to only the 4% of the biggest spenders, in a post you yourself quoted a small snippet out of (and Im guessing that's the only part you read) - so I will outline it for you here again. Social games tolerate most of their populace being small time spenders because the game needs to be full. If the 4% of the big spenders were the only people who ever logged into the server it would be a ghost town.

    Youre basically strawmanning my premise into something far more simple and less accurate than it actually is by quoting snippets of it here and there and putting only those things together, which draws an inaccurate and incomplete picture of what I am saying. Youre also doing something I see a lot on these forums over the years. Challenging someones claim without having your own premise in the discussion. I cannot confirm what you said, because you've said nothing, other than to challenge others claims. No premise = nothing to confirm or deny. Want to join the discussion? State and defend your premise of the current situation and how it would affect the future of the game if this was the master plan and they just continue forward with it.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  13. #313
    Community Member redoubt's Avatar
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    Well said. My personal experience mirrors this pretty closely.

    I ran the Von series every three days for a long time. (Even when we had to reflag each time!) But, now, I have no reason to run it except once or twice a life for xp.

    I used to run tempest spine for loot. Now I run it once a life for xp and the joy of raging around the mountain and caves with 11 other lunatics.

    I ran the titan 120 on one character. 80 on another. And that's just two of my characters. I don't run it anymore. No reason to. The loot has been surpassed.

    I ran the shroud daily when the cap was 16. Now I run it once every 4 months or so on a whim.

    I ran CITW nearly daily for a while, though I do think there are a couple items in here that are still relevant.

    I ran FoT nearly daily until you changed it. Or "fixed" it as you say. For me, the stacking penalty to reflex save was too much and it ****ed me off and I quit raiding (and have only run tempest spine and von5 heroic at level since.)

    I used to love raiding... maybe again someday.
    /sigh

  14. #314
    Community Member zDragonz's Avatar
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    Default So is TOD a Dead Raid now?

    Is it the opinion of us all that the raid 'TOD' is now a dead raid? Are the rings worth it anymore?

    The Raids pre -req quests, if all run on elite, give us the Yugoloth potions as a Patron Favor Reward. And I think it is the only reason to get this pack now.

  15. #315
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zDragonz View Post
    Is it the opinion of us all that the raid 'TOD' is now a dead raid? Are the rings worth it anymore?
    Two sets are still good, the AA set is 10% ranged alacrity that stacks with everything. The ravager set is 7 points/swing against anything that can bleed. Crunching the numbers I'm at a loss finding a belt/ring combo that beats that.

    I'm still a fan of 20% healing amp on a ring. I really wish Turbine would add this to Yellow slots so I could finaly give this up.

    i still run it out of nostalgia, I LOVED this raid back in the day. Loved that Elite TOD used to be harder that most of the epic content (same with the other Amrath quests). It was a great pack back in the day but our power-creep killed it.

    Quote Originally Posted by zDragonz View Post
    The Raids pre -req quests, if all run on elite, give us the Yugoloth potions as a Patron Favor Reward. And I think it is the only reason to get this pack now.
    The 4 flagging quests on Elite are 75 Yugo favor and are utterly trivial to anyone with EDs. Raid isn't needed.

  16. #316
    The Hatchery Paleus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    This is where SG marketing 101 allows you to understand that while the big spenders are the reason for the profit, the rest of the players arent just fodder that shouldnt be given a rip about. They are the majority number on the servers. Why do you think even the most distorted social games tolerate most of their populace being non paying players? Because if they all just left, you dont have a game, you have a ghost town.
    Wanted to pull out an highlight this. Anyone who thinks you should only focus on getting big spenders to play the game and buy things completely miss the fact that one motivating factor in an mmo is that there are other people playing it. Even if they aren't spending as much or even anything, keeping that player base interested and playing makes it so big whales can drop down loads of money to be at the top of a big pile of people. Few care to drop loads of money to be on top of a small pile in a ghost-town.
    Kobold never forgive....kobold remember waterworks.

    Quote Originally Posted by KookieKobold View Post
    i'll be putting a bug into our system.

  17. #317
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    If the 4% of the big spenders were the only people who ever logged into the server it would be a ghost town.
    So? If the big spending 4% are paying the bills then Turbine doesn't need the rest. They just need to keep feeding the stated desires of the 4% for raid bypassers, mana pots, otto boxes and whatever else these theoretical whales spend cash on. On the other hand you may be wrong about the 4% figure and the revenue base is actually much more broad than you'd like everyone to believe.

    Of course neither you nor I have any actual Turbine sales data to confirm or deny any statement about how Turbine's revenue actually breaks down, but the logical conclusion of your statements is that Turbine's best interest is letting 4% of the player base drive strategic direction. I disagree, because unlike you, I suspect DDO's revenue base is actually much more broad and disperse than this 4% whale, 48% small, 48% negligible theory you keep advancing. And when they talk about introducing things like a new class or housing instead of focusing even more on raids, it's not because they're looking to satisfy the interests of 4%, but to serve what they see as broader segments of their paying player base.

    Bottom line: my broad/diverse revenue speculation is a better explanation for what Turbine is doing and for what Rowan said than your 4% speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Challenging someones claim without having your own premise in the discussion. I cannot confirm what you said, because you've said nothing, other than to challenge others claims. No premise = nothing to confirm or deny. Want to join the discussion? State and defend your premise of the current situation and how it would affect the future of the game if this was the master plan and they just continue forward with it.
    My premise has been restated a number of times, and every time rather than challenge it you've repeated points that are not in dispute and which actually agree with what I've said, like "Turbine can cater to multiple segments of the player base". Sure they can. The question is whether they should prioritize products aimed at one segment over the other, and if so, which segment's products should they invest more resources into.

    The premise you and some others seem to have trouble with but keep dancing around is that actual product usage and sales figures are much more valuable than forum threads for a guy like Rowan who is accountable for how he decides to allocate resources. If their sales figures show that, despite persistent appeals by a small percentage of their customers, raids are actually not that strategically important to Turbine's bottom line, then they are not wrong to de-emphasize raids in favor of products that they have a track record of successfully achieving high use and roi from. For all we know, they may already have made a strategic decision to focus on casual gamers based on sales patterns since the f2p transition and are willing to sacrifice 10 or 20% of their customer base because their sales data shows they can be more profitable by offering products to the other 80 to 90% that are less expensive to produce and maintain.

    Rowan is looking at questions like raids vs classes vs housing vs other products, and the implication of his statement is that they do in fact have actual data - not speculations or recollections from 2010's lfm panels - that suggests increasing their emphasis on raiding has less potential roi than other products. If you want to actually argue with me instead of pretending to argue with me, then state and defend the opposite premise: that posts in forum threads are much more valuable than actual sales figures and make a convincing case to Rowan that he should make a strategic decision based much more on the passionate appeals of a fraction of his customers and much less on the aggregate sales data from all of his customers.
    Last edited by hit_fido; 09-06-2013 at 09:50 AM.

  18. #318
    Community Member Qhualor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zDragonz View Post
    Is it the opinion of us all that the raid 'TOD' is now a dead raid? Are the rings worth it anymore?

    The Raids pre -req quests, if all run on elite, give us the Yugoloth potions as a Patron Favor Reward. And I think it is the only reason to get this pack now.
    About as dead as VOD or Hound. The prestige bonus to the rings aren't working properly, +4 tomes are easier to get in quests with no timer, random or even some named loot do the same if not better as the rings in the same level range.

    This is what happens to raids or loot that drop more specifically in raids. Take away a reason to run a quest/raid or invalidate the loot and don't keep it updated than players won't run the content. Fun factor isn't enough to keep them active.

  19. #319
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    And look, you're welcome to fill in context you think I've left out, but when today you say:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Social games tolerate most of their populace being small time spenders because the game needs to be full.
    And from the post I allegedly snipped from, you say:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    The social gaming model for monetizing MMOs does NOT hinge on total headcount.
    and

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    And surprise surprise, the monetization model used also does not require attendance during most of the games availability cycle.
    Then it's clear you don't even have a consistent position to discuss and keep contradicting and arguing with yourself. But feel free to waive all this away as analysis paralysis and tell me again how Turbine can offer products to raiders and casual players at the same time.
    Last edited by hit_fido; 09-06-2013 at 10:02 AM.

  20. #320
    Community Member Ungood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Then it's clear you don't even have a consistent position to discuss and keep contradicting and arguing with yourself. But feel free to waive all this away as analysis paralysis and tell me again how Turbine can offer products to raiders and casual players at the same time.
    I am still wondering how "Pay to Win" led to the Developers invaliding all the stuff we "Paid to Win", with free loot from free quests.

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