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  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Why stop at numbers?



    That is absolutely my assertion. They are drawing wrong conclusions from their data.

    This game is dying. Look at the number from DDO Oracle, look at the LFMs and activity on whatever server you play on, look at a COMPLETELY DEAD end-game 2 weeks after a huge end-game "expansion" hits DDO.

    If the people steering the ship are drawing their conclusions based on player trend data they are concluding wrong. The slow-death of this game proves my point.
    ^this someone I almost always disagree with [Edit opps scratch that I agree with Troll a lot actually, for some reason I though Chrono posted that although we appear to agree on this subject as well], I just posted the same basic thing, not having read your post yet as i read through this thread and respond in turn.

    The evidence is clear, if Turbine was making the correct calls the game wouldn't be plummeting to it's very real "DooooOOOOoOOOoOooMmmMm!!!!ONEEXCLAMATIONMARKONEON E"

    Doom is no longer a Joke folks, an expansion pack that barely registered on the graph and got an average of 5000 less logins per day than Epic GH, which was NOT a not expansion pack, and 15,000 (that's FIFTEEN THOUSAND) less login activity than MOTU, both of which just happened to contain a raid... Suggests strongly that packs with no raids is not a big selling concept
    Last edited by IronClan; 09-04-2013 at 04:27 PM.
    *Disclaimer: All statements are generalized without boging down in minutia. Assuming that there are ALWAYS exceptions that test the rule, variations, and un-stated details may be omitted for brevity. These can be assumed to be understood; without bloating my posts with preemptive coverass. [*] Seal[*] Scroll[*] Shard[*] Base Item - eSoS >200 runs

  2. #102
    Community Member djl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    ^this someone I almost always disagree with [Edit opps scratch that I agree with Troll a lot actually, for some reason I though Chrono posted that although we appear to agree on this subject as well], I just posted the same basic thing, not having read your post yet as i read through this thread and respond in turn.

    The evidence is clear, if Turbine was making the correct calls the game wouldn't be plummeting to it's very real "DooooOOOOoOOOoOooMmmMm!!!!ONEEXCLAMATIONMARKONEON E"

    Doom is no longer a Joke folks, an expansion pack that barely registered on the graph and got an average of 5000 less logins per day than Epic GH, which was NOT a not expansion pack, and 15,000 (that's FIFTEEN THOUSAND) less login activity than MOTU, both of which just happened to contain a raid... Suggests strongly that packs with no raids is not a big selling concept
    Also, other than randomgen caster sticks, there are NO spectacular weapons that were released with the expansion and very few spectacular named armors. In fact, only the EE Shadowsight and Gloves of the Illusionist are really worth grinding for. Two items, out of what... 8 new quests?

    Random-gen +10 items are so easy to get that there is very little grind at all in the expansion. I'm not an advocate of needless grind, as is present with the TR system, but there does need to be some grind to keep people interested in MMOs. That's where raids come into play-- it allows for more challenging content that brings a larger group of players together for the chance at obtaining exceptionally powerful loot. When random-gen items are superior to raid loot, there is no longer any reason to run that raid.

  3. #103
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    I guess some people weren't around, high enough level to see this or something when raids pre-epic levels were run constantly. at 20, all players did was run epics that had 1 day timers and run raids that hstill have a 3 day timer but couldn't bypass the timer like you can now. players actually ran all the raids at that time for the loot and some wouldn't even think about TRing until they had all the 20th raid loot they wanted for TRing, had all the tomes (only place to find +3s and +4s at the time) since they didn't carry over at the time and made all their GS items. some of the raid loot was actually still viable in epics. there was a time when you couldn't even get in some groups without a GS weapon at least. random gen loot wasn't enough.

    one of the first things I hear from people who complain about Shadowfell is that there is no raid. people want to raid but they also want the raid loot to not invalidate the previous raid loot released. it does seem the devs are trying to do a "fix" and making random gear scale better to accommodate the increase in levels, but they are doing it backwards. named loot should have been scaled better first and people wouldn't complain as much and players wouldn't be replacing named gear with random gear. this feels familiarly like catering to a certain aspect of the population. players have been asking for old loot to matter again, even if it is just twink gear but at least easier to acquire. decrease in raid activity is most times caused by outdated loot. update the loot to matter and raids will increase in activity because that is the selling point for why most players will run a raid.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalont View Post
    No, what is dieing is your opinion of what endgame should be. Look at the who list on Ghallanda and you know there's a large number of people over 20. They just aren't raiding in pugs. You're taking this information and taking it to mean that the game is dieing
    Hi, the end result of your assertion (which is more assumptions with no facts to back them but who cares it doesn't matter) is an empty LFM panel, new players and lots of regulars are not in guilds, if the pug scene is dead, new players see a dead game and they leave.

    So no matter how you argue this we end up with exactly what we're looking at right now... a very unhealthy seeming game. Who gives a **** if solo'ers and guilds stick around to party in the ashes of a dead game?

    I PUG, a dead pug scene = a dead game.
    *Disclaimer: All statements are generalized without boging down in minutia. Assuming that there are ALWAYS exceptions that test the rule, variations, and un-stated details may be omitted for brevity. These can be assumed to be understood; without bloating my posts with preemptive coverass. [*] Seal[*] Scroll[*] Shard[*] Base Item - eSoS >200 runs

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    More people raided TOD, shroud, von, hox, vod, DQ then compared to now. The deniers cant refute with percentages either, but we do know it was more then for those raids than now.
    There are no deniers. Who are you arguing with?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    And if you think that paying customers observations of what they want in their game will not influence what direction Turbine takes that game, then some business 101 is in order. The customer is the most important person in the equation. Period.
    You are actually completely agreeing with me and confirming what I've stated - Turbine is well advised to pay attention to what their customers want. When Rowan points out the discrepancy between talk and action it demonstrates they are thinking about what their customers want and looking as data; not just their forumite customers, but the totality of the playerbase. The implication of his statement is that the vocal forumites are not necessarily representative of the total playerbase.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Oh, and if that statement they made is correct, why are they working on a new raid as we speak? Not because of low revenue implications.
    This is again a complete confirmation of what I've written above - if the percentage of the playerbase running raids is smaller than we might think, it still makes sense to cater to those players to the extent their involvement adds to the bottom line. In that case, it may mean that introducing only one raid a year is the appropriate rate from Turbine's perspective. Clearly that is much less than many vocal players here want to see, but Turbine may be reading the data just fine afterall.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Your assumption that the majority of users spends the majority of money, is incorrect.
    You are incorrect, because there there is no such assumption.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Even if only 4% of the player base raids, and its the same 4% that spends the most money, those low revenue implications youre talking about, do not exist.
    You are asserting that it is in Turbine's best interest to cater to the 4% of the player base that you've called whales and whose usage pattern is very short intense periods of play time followed by long periods of absence. Ok - what does raiding have to do with them? To woo big spenders, turbine has introduced daily dice, loot rerolls that don't work on raid chests, store available stat and skill tomes that reduce the need to raid, otto and bigby boxes that are relevant to TR'ing and not to raiding, a cash auction where the whales can buy loot instead of running raids, random creature companion packages, and I Win buttons. If your statement is correct, why is Turbine working on so many more avenues of monetization that have nothing to do with raiding, and never pushed anything specific to raiding beyond bypass timers? "Not because of low revenue implications". You are in fact forcefully arguing my case for me. Hilarious!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    The assumption that the highest percentage of players spends the most money is false, as I outlined in my last post.
    You are incorrect: there is no such assumption and I am accurate when stating that as the percentage of players who spend money relative to raiding increases, the revenue that Turbine can expect to accrue by catering to things that raiding players want increases as well.

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post

    The evidence is clear, if Turbine was making the correct calls the game wouldn't be plummeting to it's very real "DooooOOOOoOOOoOooMmmMm!!!!ONEEXCLAMATIONMARKONEON E"

    Doom is no longer a Joke folks, an expansion pack that barely registered on the graph and got an average of 5000 less logins per day than Epic GH, which was NOT a not expansion pack, and 15,000 (that's FIFTEEN THOUSAND) less login activity than MOTU, both of which just happened to contain a raid... Suggests strongly that packs with no raids is not a big selling concept

    You jokers have been posting this schtick for nearly two years now. The game keeps chugging along.

    People (who thankfully no longer post here) were posting this stuff two years before that. The game keeps chugging along.

    Not a great track record so far.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    You are incorrect: there is no such assumption and I am accurate when stating that as the percentage of players who spend money relative to raiding increases, the revenue that Turbine can expect to accrue by catering to things that raiding players want increases as well.
    I am absolutely correct, and you are assuming this. You even posted that its all about the percentage of the player base and a low percentage has low revenue implications. I showed you otherwise, through having a clear understanding of how p2w/f2p/cash shop game monetization works.
    Last edited by Chai; 09-04-2013 at 04:46 PM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  8. #108
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Postumus View Post
    You jokers have been posting this schtick for nearly two years now. The game keeps chugging along.

    People (who thankfully no longer post here) were posting this stuff two years before that. The game keeps chugging along.

    Not a great track record so far.
    And where did those people go. They attrited, as we posted they would, due to the reasons we posted. The game keeps chugging along, with more and more attrition. Blind defense has had the worst track record yet, as it assumes that because the lights are still on, everything must be alright.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoglum View Post
    Just because something is tradition doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. Raids are stupid and it looks like Turbine is figuring that out. I’ve spoken with many people in raids & some friends too. All but one person said they run them just for the loot. When pressed, all the others I spoke with said they don’t really enjoy raiding. I think we all know what happens when the bribe is taken away – nobody is running them now.

    Oh, please upgrade the loot so people will run raids.

    It’s pretty sad that the best loot has to be put in these things for anyone to want to run them. Arguing because they historically had the best loot doesn’t mean that going into the future it has to stay that way. Past performance is no indication of future performance. No argument there.

    As far as coolness is concerned, any dungeon can be made cool/have good mechanics. The developers just have to make them cool. There’s no reason in the world cool dungeons have to be raids. I have no idea why this is relevant at all. Just ask the developers to make cool dungeons.

    Social Experience. It seems to me that people play a game to have fun. I’m all for everyone having that ability. I suggest people get together and ask the developers to make big, cool dungeons. Not raids, dungeons. They can be cool. They can be big (though it would be nice to have some sort of checkpoints/ logout chambers or something to save progress). Then, the developers could make the scaling so you could bring in 1-12 people. I’m all for people who want to play with 12 people to have the ability to do so. This way, everyone gets what they want. If you like to play big cool dungeons with 12 people, you are set!

    Using this method, everyone gets what they want. If people still don’t join 12 person parties; that will tell you all you need to know. Let the people vote. I don’t like sitting here reading that people are upset because they cannot play in the large groups they would like to be in. I don’t like that there is a hard limit of 6 people & large guilds/large groups cannot get together and do their thing. I say heck yeah, give them that ability.

    There is no need though to differentiate dungeons by calling one a dungeon and the other a raid. Make all dungeons accessible to 12 people and those who like that can have what they want. I know older dungeons are probably not good candidates for adjusting to this but there’s no reason going into the future that the dev’s couldn’t design around 12 people but still provide methods for smaller parties to enter/complete.
    You, sir, make far too much sense. Are you actually a computer program pretending to be sapient?

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Postumus View Post
    You jokers have been posting this schtick for nearly two years now. The game keeps chugging along.

    People (who thankfully no longer post here) were posting this stuff two years before that. The game keeps chugging along.

    Not a great track record so far.
    It is a broken record they like to hear play over and over and over and over.....

    Quote Originally Posted by hsinclair
    I heard the devs hate all wizards, bards, clerics, fighters, and fuzzy bunnies and only want us to play halfling barbarian/paladin shuriken specialists!

    It's totally true, I have a reliable source. You better reroll now.
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  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsquishwizzy View Post
    The original quote compares raids to new classes to player housing. You can’t place a number on stuff that, at present, does not exist. So you can’t sit there and make revenue arguments when the two items being debated have ZERO revenue to justify their existence. At best, their reception in DDO will be speculative at best.

    If we go with revenue alone, raiding wins hands-down.
    Introduction of new classes has happened before so they have a good idea of how the player base is going to respond and spend for that. There are also plenty of prior experience with things like extra storage, cosmetic/vanity items, and guild airships all of which are applicable to some reasonable incarnation of "housing" that they might come up with.

    So I disagree with the idea that they have no sales data of use or that they would be unable to project sales for either of those product offerings. But it may be even worse - since they also have usage stats and perhaps even indirect sales figures by way of for example, how many raid bypass timers they sold that were used for any given raid, the fact that Rowan implied they may be prioritizing a new class or housing over an increased emphasis on raiding could be construed as evidence that they've not seen the return they expected from recent raids or even from the monetized bypass timer and are therefore looking elsewhere for increased revenue. That may be why only one new raid sometime (was it *this* year, or next?) is in the cards.

    And I totally understand where the argument is coming from that the CitW and FoT sucked so bad that no one is running them and that the loot in older raids sucks so bad that no one is running them either and if they only made cool loot and cool raids things would be different. That argument fails if one interpretation of Rowan's statement - that raiding isn't that popular, period (in the past or now) - is true. Maybe it is true, maybe it isn't. But these laughable "way back when" memories from the what, 10% of the playerbase who posts to the forums hold as much water as ponderings over what Turbine's usage data actually is: zero. It is still fun to speculate, though.

  12. #112
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    It is a broken record they like to hear play over and over and over and over.....
    Just like "all is fine" fanboism.

    Only we have DDO Oracle's logins reports to back everything we're saying, all you have is your head in the sand.

    We're right, you're not.

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post

    The evidence is clear, if Turbine was making the correct calls the game wouldn't be plummeting to it's very real "DooooOOOOoOOOoOooMmmMm!!!!ONEEXCLAMATIONMARKONEON E"

    Turbine has 2 customers, for the sake of argument they both spend equal amounts of money on the game. Customer A loves raiding and loot. Customer B hates it. Customer B likes cosmetic pets, Customer A hates it.

    Which customer does Turbine support? Knowing that no matter that they do, they will draw the ire of either Customer A or B depending on their choice. Its no win.

    Bascially threads like this are a waste of time. Turbine has access to data we don't. You can guess, theorize, extrapolate and what not till your blue in the face. They have their business goals to factor in too. Even skimming through this thread is just the same tired posters over and over and over, all pretty much saying "give me what I want or your game will die!". There are more and more games coming out and scheduled to come out, both MMO and Single Player. The whole industry is dying, players are just spread out across many games now, that is the future. So Turbine is right to be making content geared for 6 or less players, as it is unlikely to see any major influx of players ever again to DDO or Lotro.
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  14. #114
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    All the metrics won't help if they are read wrong. All the personal experience won't help because it is not universal. It is hard to know what your playerbase actually wants.

    Unless, of course, you ASK THEM. This may seem incredibily difficult.

    Of course, if I had a survey I could fill out once/week or once/day per account to get a free gold roll, or store code, or other shiny, I'd make sure I filled it out every week/day. Then you would know exactly what I want. In a real-time fashion. I bet we'd all respond to that survey. You could probably even do away with the shiny because I'd fill it out just so you'd know what I want. (Heck, I'd probably run an old raid just to get the chance at the reward of filling out such a survey but please give me a shiny)

    Hope I'm not making too much sense. I try to stay under the radar.

  15. #115
    Community Member Hendrik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    And where did those people go. They attrited, as we posted they would, due to the reasons we posted. The game keeps chugging along, with more and more attrition. Blind defense has had the worst track record yet, as it assumes that because the lights are still on, everything must be alright.
    And yet, we are still chugging along at an avg of 12.5k-15k+ logins per day, give or take, for the last 4 updates.

    But it is convenient to ignore the upward trend of logins since the latest update because that does not follow DooOOmmMM111!!!! now does it.

    I wish a few more would follow suit and find a different game to doom all over and leave the rest of us alone.

    Quote Originally Posted by hsinclair
    I heard the devs hate all wizards, bards, clerics, fighters, and fuzzy bunnies and only want us to play halfling barbarian/paladin shuriken specialists!

    It's totally true, I have a reliable source. You better reroll now.
    Adventurer, Bug Reporter, Mournlander.

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Just like "all is fine" fanboism.

    Only we have DDO Oracle's logins reports to back everything we're saying, all you have is your head in the sand.

    We're right, you're not.
    There is no fanboism. The game is obviously declining in numbers. This is common. It's over seven years old. No one is denying this. What I do deny is that the way to move forward is to try to design the game around a pointless loot grind. This isn't a winning strategy. As DDO declines in popularity, it has to carve out its niche and decide how it's going to spend its end days. People that already enjoy endless grinds have found their homes in other games. DDO has to be something else.

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    And yet, we are still chugging along at an avg of 12.5k-15k+ logins per day, give or take, for the last 4 updates.

    But it is convenient to ignore the upward trend of logins since the latest update because that does not follow DooOOmmMM111!!!! now does it.

    I wish a few more would follow suit and find a different game to doom all over and leave the rest of us alone.
    How many of those log ins are the same people re-logging in due to crashes (or other things that might necessitate relogging in) that were not nearly as prevalent in the past?
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  18. #118
    Community Member djl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    It is a broken record they like to hear play over and over and over and over.....
    Keep telling yourself that. Soon, you will be singing Turbine's praises to an empty stadium because there is DEFINITE attrition occurring. When I started playing in 2011, I rarely ever saw a completely blank LFM panel at Cap. Now, it's rarer NOT to see a completely blank LFM panel (and I do not count lowbie favor run with 1-28 level ranges as actual LFMs).

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    Hi, the end result of your assertion (which is more assumptions with no facts to back them but who cares it doesn't matter) is an empty LFM panel, new players and lots of regulars are not in guilds, if the pug scene is dead, new players see a dead game and they leave.

    So no matter how you argue this we end up with exactly what we're looking at right now... a very unhealthy seeming game. Who gives a **** if solo'ers and guilds stick around to party in the ashes of a dead game?

    I PUG, a dead pug scene = a dead game.
    Revenue quiz:

    Which makes more money?

    A. A million soloers playing and paying $10 each.

    B. Fifty thousand raiders each paying $10.

    If hoards of new player come and play alone Turbine could potentially make more money than ever. The success of the game doesn't have to hinge on PUGs. What you don't seem to understand is that some folks will come, play and never even bother to look at the LFM panel or care one iota about it.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Very much so. I'm hoping the "long term" cap plan of 30 leads them to spead out latterally for a while, start turning the pyramid into a cube. While I enjoy leveling a variety of builds, I want them to have something to do once they've reached the top beyond leaping to their death just to be reincarnated so they can climb to the top and take another leap...

    I have higher hopes for my DDO toons than becoming some sort of Hindu lemming.
    End game is important, there needs to be a destination for a leveled character, that tests the mettle of your character and SOME slow gear grinds. People are still doing VON for eSoS after all these years... put a few more "Artifact" like weapons and items like that, with similar slow simmer "one day maybe" chances to get them. My motivation to level past 20 is non-existent.
    *Disclaimer: All statements are generalized without boging down in minutia. Assuming that there are ALWAYS exceptions that test the rule, variations, and un-stated details may be omitted for brevity. These can be assumed to be understood; without bloating my posts with preemptive coverass. [*] Seal[*] Scroll[*] Shard[*] Base Item - eSoS >200 runs

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