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  1. #81
    Community Member djl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Why stop at numbers?



    That is absolutely my assertion. They are drawing wrong conclusions from their data.

    This game is dying. Look at the number from DDO Oracle, look at the LFMs and activity on whatever server you play on, look at a COMPLETELY DEAD end-game 2 weeks after a huge end-game "expansion" hits DDO.

    If the people steering the ship are drawing their conclusions based on player trend data they are concluding wrong. The slow-death of this game proves my point.
    QFT. I am dismayed by the LFM scene at level 28. Between the idiots posting LFMs for High Road/MOTU with lower level requirements than is necessary and the completely underwhelming loot in the new quests, all of the people who briefly returned for the expansion have already left. People predicted this would happen, but no one thought it would happen this soon. And as a result, any future expansions will likely sell even more poorly because now people are expecting them to be disappointing.

    At the rate things are going, I estimate that this game has about another year of life left in it. To be optimistic, I'll say two, but I don't think it'll last that long. End Game is completely dead, and TRing is done in private groups/shortmanned. New players come in and see a dead LFM panel and leave. Current players see their friends gravitate to other games, either because they are fed up with internal issues that prevent them from playing (e.g. the 18 hour outage and the ISP blocking issue) or there is simply nothing in the game that interests them anymore, so they too end up leaving.

  2. #82
    Community Member PermaBanned's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    That statement made me cringe in it's ridiculousness. They aren't building an end-game they're building a hamster wheel.
    Very much so. I'm hoping the "long term" cap plan of 30 leads them to spead out latterally for a while, start turning the pyramid into a cube. While I enjoy leveling a variety of builds, I want them to have something to do once they've reached the top beyond leaping to their death just to be reincarnated so they can climb to the top and take another leap...

    I have higher hopes for my DDO toons than becoming some sort of Hindu lemming.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?

  3. #83
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by djl View Post
    QFT. I am dismayed by the LFM scene at level 28. Between the idiots posting LFMs for High Road/MOTU with lower level requirements than is necessary and the completely underwhelming loot in the new quests, all of the people who briefly returned for the expansion have already left. People predicted this would happen, but no one thought it would happen this soon. And as a result, any future expansions will likely sell even more poorly because now people are expecting them to be disappointing.

    At the rate things are going, I estimate that this game has about another year of life left in it. To be optimistic, I'll say two, but I don't think it'll last that long. End Game is completely dead, and TRing is done in private groups/shortmanned. New players come in and see a dead LFM panel and leave. Current players see their friends gravitate to other games, either because they are fed up with internal issues that prevent them from playing (e.g. the 18 hour outage and the ISP blocking issue) or there is simply nothing in the game that interests them anymore, so they too end up leaving.
    i don't think it's terminal, but I agree with you that at the current course this maybe lasts another year.

    What's amazing is Gianthold was much more of an "Expansion" than Shadowfell.

  4. #84
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    I have higher hopes for my DDO toons than becoming some sort of Hindu lemming.
    That quote is made of awesome, I wish i had more signature room.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by waryJerry View Post
    I don't suppose it occurs to most of you, but could it possibly be that a sizeable number of gamers don't raid not because of the loot but because they don't wish to be bothered? Rather, some players don't wish to play anything that can't be done solo. My personal impression is that such antisocial gamers as myself are an underestimated but considerable part of the gaming population. You raiding types like to think that you're typical and speak for the rest of us, but Producer Rowan seems to be implying that you're not in fact typical of the DDO audience and I'd like to tip my hat to him (if I had a hat).
    So people with poor tastes in single player RPG's should be DDO's target audience and people who play MMO's because they like um... "MM" should be marginalized?
    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    You can't possibly design good gameplay if excitement unpredictability and unknowns are NOT ALLOWED because they confuse some players who want everything cut and dried and spelled out for them.

  6. #86
    Community Member djl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Very much so. I'm hoping the "long term" cap plan of 30 leads them to spead out latterally for a while, start turning the pyramid into a cube. While I enjoy leveling a variety of builds, I want them to have something to do once they've reached the top beyond leaping to their death just to be reincarnated so they can climb to the top and take another leap...

    I have higher hopes for my DDO toons than becoming some sort of Hindu lemming.
    TRing != end game, though. Even if they make past lives actually useful and give you +5 to your DCs for every past wizard or sorc life, what's the point? You're still running in a hamster wheel. You're still grinding needlessly for a non-existent end-game.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by djl View Post
    TRing != end game, though. Even if they make past lives actually useful and give you +5 to your DCs for every past wizard or sorc life, what's the point? You're still running in a hamster wheel. You're still grinding needlessly for a non-existent end-game.
    And what is it that you consider "endgame"? A pointless loot grind that exists for no reason whatsoever. No matter what happens, in a pve game, you can only ultimately play the game because you like the content. TRing is better in that it gives you more content to play. Both examples offer useless rewards that don't mean anything.

  8. #88
    Community Member PermaBanned's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by djl View Post
    TRing != end game, though. Even if they make past lives actually useful and give you +5 to your DCs for every past wizard or sorc life, what's the point? You're still running in a hamster wheel. You're still grinding needlessly for a non-existent end-game.
    That is the problem that needs addressing, and a decent (though unknown) percentage of us would like to see raids be part of the address. What's the point of making a powerful capped out toon if there's nothing (ok, relatively little) cool to do with that capped out power? There isn't, and if there's nothing to do with the power, there's no point in attaining the power, so there's no point in playing DDO at all. That's what we want fixed, and we would like raids to be a part of the fix.
    Last edited by PermaBanned; 09-04-2013 at 04:51 PM.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?

  9. #89
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalont View Post
    And what is it that you consider "endgame"? A pointless loot grind that exists for no reason whatsoever. No matter what happens, in a pve game, you can only ultimately play the game because you like the content. TRing is better in that it gives you more content to play. Both examples offer useless rewards that don't mean anything.
    Following your logic (and this is stretching the word "logic" to the breaking point) there is no reason to play DDO at all.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalont View Post
    And what is it that you consider "endgame"? A pointless loot grind that exists for no reason whatsoever. No matter what happens, in a pve game, you can only ultimately play the game because you like the content. TRing is better in that it gives you more content to play. Both examples offer useless rewards that don't mean anything.
    true enough. I know that when I am not earning xps, I feel like I am wasting my time. I cannot get into the endloot grind. It bores me.

  11. #91
    Community Member PermaBanned's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    That quote is made of awesome, I wish i had more signature room.
    I'm flattered. Just take out the needless space between the [quote][quote]s and it'll fit, check my own sig vs yours

    Edit: Essentially make your "edit signature" box look like a giant run on sentence, at least that's what I did...
    Last edited by PermaBanned; 09-04-2013 at 04:54 PM.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow - btw, do you have change for 10 million population?

  12. #92
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Postumus View Post
    true enough. I know that when I am not earning xps, I feel like I am wasting my time. I cannot get into the endloot grind. It bores me.
    It is possible to get to the point when you no longer need XP. Many of us have reached that point already.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Close.
    Raids don't have to provide the best loot (though they often do, well, did...) they have to provide worthwhile loot. Ideally, when there is a stable end game environment, all the quests and raids will provide either worthwhile or worthwhile XP.
    {An example of an exception to that is the Abbot. It is the only raid I can think of that has been run consistently by those who have all the loot from it they want because it is a skill challenge even at cap. Next to Shroud, Abbot should be looked at heavily for future inspiration.}
    Amen, I know people on Thelanis who lead Abbot without needing anything at all, and they do it because it's fun, it's a skill challenge.

    It's also the most like "Tomb of Horrors" I've ever experienced in a video game. Abbot with Rainbow in the dark, STK, VON, Crucible Tear, Twilight Forge and a select few others are the most D&D module feeling quests DDO has to offer. It's a shame how boring, linear and vanillia hack and slash they've become.
    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    You can't possibly design good gameplay if excitement unpredictability and unknowns are NOT ALLOWED because they confuse some players who want everything cut and dried and spelled out for them.

  14. #94
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    So assert and defend an accurate figure for the percentage of players who raided once a week during 2010.
    More people raided TOD, shroud, von, hox, vod, DQ then compared to now. The deniers cant refute with percentages either, but we do know it was more then for those raids than now.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Sure - the assumption here is that they do keep usage logs. If they never did, then Rowan has no basis on which to make the statement he did. If they ever did, there's no reason aside from negligence or incompetence that they wouldn't keep them going back several years, or at least since the advent of f2p at which point measuring product usage would have become much more valuable to their monetization planning.
    That assumption kills all arguments that when people lost all that GS due to the boulder bug, they werent able to prove the raid was run, or that someone had the item they claimed to lose, which they claimed when this bug was happening for the 18 or so months that it happened.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    Not in dispute. The question is what percentage of the playerbase uses raids, not whether players ran a raid introduced in 2009 more often in 2010 than they do in 2013. That playerbase percentage could have remained roughly constant, let's say purely for discussion sake, at 30%, even if those 30% who do raid were using the set of all pre MOTU raids more often in 2010 than they do in 2013.
    No, percentages are not needed to understand that the assertation which was made that not enough people are interested in raids, is completely false. The question YOU keep asking is about percentages, but it is mistaken to say we need exact percentages to understand what the situation was like then compared to now.

    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    It's about percentage of playerbase, and then from there, what effect that percentage has on Turbine's revenue relative to their raiding activity. If the actual data behind Rowan's statement is that the percentage is small and the revenue implication is limited then no amount of anecdotal stories about friends leaving or beard stroking about how you remember lfm panels in 2010 like it was yesterday will curry much attention by Turbine decision makers.
    What data behind Rowans statement? Where is this data. And if you think that paying customers observations of what they want in their game will not influence what direction Turbine takes that game, then some business 101 is in order. The customer is the most important person in the equation. Period. Oh, and if that statement they made is correct, why are they working on a new raid as we speak? Not because of low revenue implications. Lets set the record straight on how a p2w game is monetized shall we. 48-50 percent spend very little, 48-50 percent are moderate spenders, and 2-4% are big spenders. So no, its not about percentage of users. Its about how much money can be made taking the game in a specific direction. Your assumption that the majority of users spends the majority of money, is incorrect. Even if only 4% of the player base raids, and its the same 4% that spends the most money, those low revenue implications youre talking about, do not exist.

    The only reason you continue to bring up percentage of playerbase is because its a fact that cant be proven, but that arguement, the," absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" argument, is weak, as well as the assumption that the majority of the players spends the majority of the money. Trying to bog down the discussion using analysis paralysis will not work, because the old school players clearly understand there is enough interest in raiding, and that Turbines own actions are what is making raiding less desireable. They have the ability to control what percentage of the population raids by ramping up the desireability and replayability of said raids, so even if you, Rowan, and Jesus are all correct, all they have to change the trend is make raiding more desireable. This is where listening to the player base is important, also negating your assertation that nothing we say will influence them.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    So people with poor tastes in single player RPG's should be DDO's target audience and people who play MMO's because they like um... "MM" should be marginalized?
    "MM" only implies what you think it does to yourself. There are no rules as to what that really is. It's a relatively new concept and is still evolving. DDO was marketed and sold to me simply as Dungeons and Dragons Online. There was nothing anywhere about "MMO" nor what that may or may not imply. DDO seemed to me like a good next step in progression from Neverwinter Nights. It delivered very well I might add.

    Neverwinter Online seemed the next step after DDO - boy was I wrong. What a t#rd game that turned out to be. Just had to throw that in.

    I can dig the desire to run some cartoons at max level. I do for a few runs but I don't see sitting at max level as any less of a hamster wheel that TRing. I would bet we'll likely see more stuff when the level cap turns 30. This recent update feels more like a stepping stone that a anything else.

    Also, I wholeheartedly agree the mechanics of DDO should stay more D&D and less of whatever they may be turning it into. People who quit simply because "undead are tough to beat" are just a bunch of sissies.

  16. #96
    Community Member Charononus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    Amen, I know people on Thelanis who lead Abbot without needing anything at all, and they do it because it's fun, it's a skill challenge.
    The people I knew on thelanis that did this have left the game because while sometimes it's fun to just run a raid where you don't need anything from it, raiders want to make progress on their toons with something worthwhile from the raids.

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    The actual percentage number is irrelevant.
    It's relevant to Turbine, insofar as the higher the percentage is, the higher their expected revenue could be by catering to those players.

    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Thats almost apples & oranges territory.
    You're exactly right.

    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    Do you seriously contend that if the percentage of players running 2 end game raids doesn't equal the percentage of players running ~9 end game raids then raids aren't viable?
    No, I was explaining why using lfm panels from years ago, aside from being as unreliable an anecdote as we may have, to argue about how often a raid was being run (aka, "apples") is not related to the actual figure that would matter to Turbine, which is what percentage of the playerbase run raids at any given time (aka, "oranges").

    Quote Originally Posted by PermaBanned View Post
    What they did say is that they see more people talking about raids than running them.
    In context, he was sharing an insight on their prioritization and how they might decide what to do first with limited resources. Even if the percentage of players who raid is small, where their raiding activity generates revenue it would still be logical for them to devote a proportional amount of resources to serving those customers. But it wouldn't be logical for them to prioritize it as the top most effort like many of those customers are requesting they do. And vice versa - if most of their customers raid and most of those raiding customers spend money based on their raiding activity then it's logical for Turbine to make raiding a much higher priority.

    That much I would guess everyone agrees on although this is the Internet, so...

    The only question is what the data - all the actual usage data that is available as far back as possible - says about those percentages and revenue figures. Actual usage data does not include "my 7 years of photographic memory snapshots of lfm
    panels on an hourly basis" despite how valuable some people think their recollections are.

  18. #98
    Community Member Chai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    It's relevant to Turbine, insofar as the higher the percentage is, the higher their expected revenue could be by catering to those players.
    The assumption that the highest percentage of players spends the most money is false, as I outlined in my last post. This is not the way p2w, f2p, games with cash shops etc...are monetized. They are monetized on a smaller portion of the population spending the most money. The reason we CAN assume they are analyzing more modern times rather than raids back when each raid was endgame, is because the game is monetized differently now. Timer bypass is ~1 year old. Only the data from CiTW is relevant. If they can tell me that only 10% of folks raided back in the day, they still cant tell me that those 10% would not have accounted for a much larger portion of the income due to monetizing bypassing timers, mana potions, etc.

    Why is Turbine working on a raid right now then, if a less significant percentage of the population is interested in raids?
    Last edited by Chai; 09-04-2013 at 05:10 PM.
    Advocating repeated nerfs in the name of "balancing the game" then complaining about how DDO is moving away from D&D, is a direct contradiction in logic - D&D 3.5 (what DDO is based on) is not a balanced game. We can either have a balanced clone MMO with homogenized classes, or we can have a D&D game. We cant have both.

  19. #99
    Community Member bsquishwizzy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_fido View Post
    In context, he was sharing an insight on their prioritization and how they might decide what to do first with limited resources. Even if the percentage of players who raid is small, where their raiding activity generates revenue it would still be logical for them to devote a proportional amount of resources to serving those customers. But it wouldn't be logical for them to prioritize it as the top most effort like many of those customers are requesting they do. And vice versa - if most of their customers raid and most of those raiding customers spend money based on their raiding activity then it's logical for Turbine to make raiding a much higher priority.
    Flag on the frickin’ play!

    The original quote compares raids to new classes to player housing. You can’t place a number on stuff that, at present, does not exist. So you can’t sit there and make revenue arguments when the two items being debated have ZERO revenue to justify their existence. At best, their reception in DDO will be speculative at best.

    If we go with revenue alone, raiding wins hands-down.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalont View Post
    It is much more likely that the percentages WERE NEVER high to begin with.
    I don't need numbers to remember when "end game" (Epics and raids) were nearly half the LFM panel.

    You do, because you apparently weren't around.

    Who cares about numbers, the game was MUCH MORE HEALTHY and that matters to anyone who cares about the game, whether they raid or not. Because raids meant flagging, and lots of ancillary 6 man quest LFM's (two for every DQ!).. Boot ing farming, Shroud flagging, Abbot flagging, DQ flagging, VON flagging many more, all of them staples of the grouping system and all of them MUCH LESS COMMON NOW.

    I truely believe Turbine wants DDO to succeed but I also truely believe they keep making choices that are based on a poor interpretation of their data... Such as making "ghostbane" drop everywhere so new players wont quit due to exit surveys that suggest undead are frustrating new players... (Undead... wait until they swing yellow zero's at every boss in the game!) My evidence for this is that the GAME KEEPS GETTING MORE EMPTY.

    Pretty compelling evidence don't you think?

    Until the game starts getting LESS EMPTY I think we can conclude that Turbine isn't making the correct interpetation of their own Metrics, because they undoubtedly have been trying to make the game better based on metrics since it's inception. Yet the game suffers from wild population swings between updates, it has an LFM system that requires "critical mass" of players or it breaks horribly and new players see an empty LFM panel in their level range and say "This game is dead I'm going to find something else" leading to the LFM panel getting yet more empty and less players to fill groups, leading to less groups and less players etc. etc. etc. In other words their LFM and grouping system is designed to break and become a vicious downward spiral. The game has been STRETCHED OUT twice within about a years time by 8 levels and NOTHING TO DO has been added when you get to the end. No reason to get there = no onbes going to make the journey.

    Presently I have no characters that have leveled to 26... because there's absolutely no reason to bother. When the "journey" leads to a dead end and you know it... you take a right turn and find a different journey (in my case I make Alt's but that is getting boring as every one of them gets near epic and I lose interest in playing them... Path of Exile can't get out of Beta fast enough... I love DDO, every time I roll a new alt and smile about an STK run or a VON5/6, but it's got to reverse direction or I will flee off this sinking ship like everyone else.
    Quote Originally Posted by IronClan View Post
    You can't possibly design good gameplay if excitement unpredictability and unknowns are NOT ALLOWED because they confuse some players who want everything cut and dried and spelled out for them.

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