# Thread: Grazes and ranged combat - stop lying to us about the to-hit formula

1. ## Grazes and ranged combat - stop lying to us about the to-hit formula

Grazing . . . on an 88 . . . with precision on . . . seriously what is up with this? total rolls that are LESS hit him.

2. Your to hit is not an absolute. It gets converted into a percentage, and then the percentage is rolled behind the scenes. A lesser total result roll can hit while a higher total result roll misses, because when the percentages are then rolled independently.

3. I haven't checked after U19, but before I sometimes got hits on (e.g.) 3+44, while 4+44 would graze. The system is buggy.

Also, I've gotten complete misses on 2+ while using proficient weapons https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthrea...-System-Issues

4. Originally Posted by Chai
Your to hit is not an absolute. It gets converted into a percentage, and then the percentage is rolled behind the scenes. A lesser total result roll can hit while a higher total result roll misses, because when the percentages are then rolled independently.
What's the formula then?

5. Originally Posted by Carpone
What's the formula then?
They posted it in the Lamannia threads at the time. The total result of the to hit roll gets converted to a percentage and then a d100 is rolled. This explains why you can hit on a lower total result and miss on a higher total result.

Not my fault the search mechanism is broke as a joke.

6. Originally Posted by Chai
Your to hit is not an absolute. It gets converted into a percentage, and then the percentage is rolled behind the scenes. A lesser total result roll can hit while a higher total result roll misses, because when the percentages are then rolled independently.
This is true. It also makes the system less transparent.

7. Originally Posted by Dandonk
This is true. It also makes the system less transparent.
It makes the system an absolute lie.

What's the point of these accuracy items when you still graze on an 88?

Higher die-rolls with a lower modifier HIT this targets AC. This makes no sense at all.

Ranged to-hit is borked, if you can't see this you're clueless.

8. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
It makes the system an absolute lie.

What's the point of these accuracy items when you still graze on an 88?

Higher die-rolls with a lower modifier HIT this targets AC. This makes no sense at all.

Ranged to-hit is borked, if you can't see this you're clueless.
We need better data to conclude anything here. Chais post provides an explanation why you could see some lower rolls hit and some higher rolls miss. However, there could still be something wrong, who knows?

For each pair of to-hit modifier and d20 roll you'd have to gather frequency tables with: total number of occurences, total number of hits, total number of grazing hits, and total number of misses.

9. Originally Posted by Forzah
We need better data to conclude anything here. Chais post provides an explanation why you could see some lower rolls hit and some higher rolls miss. However, there could still be something wrong, who knows?
Chai's point was nonsense, but he was right about search being completely borked so we can't find how things are supposed to work.
Originally Posted by Forzah
For each pair of to-hit modifier and d20 roll you'd have to gather frequency tables with: total number of occurences, total number of hits, total number of grazing hits, and total number of misses.
We need a dev to comment.

10. I like the d20.

Sadly, it has only relative bearing on the actual outcome of an attack. Digital DM screen action going on here.

11. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
Chai's point was nonsense
Probably not, he has read it on these forums and Dandonk confirmed he read it too. From your previous post it seems you do not completely grasp the concept of probability and randomness. How can you call the outcome of a random variable a lie?

12. Originally Posted by Forzah
Probably not, he has read it on these forums and Dandonk confirmed he read it too. From your previous post it seems you do not completely grasp the concept of probability and randomness. How can you call the outcome of a random variable a lie?
I can call anything I want a lie, it's the privilege of being a troll.

13. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
I can call anything I want a lie, it's the privilege of being a troll.
OK. Do read a book on probability when you're done trolling .

14. Originally Posted by Forzah
OK. Do read a book on probability when you're done trolling .
Like I'll ever be done trolling?

15. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
Like I'll ever be done trolling?
You're getting predictable TT. I saw that response stumbling over the hill from miles away. (I think it even had a Zimmer Frame).

16. This has nothing to do with ranged combat (although when the combat changes first rolled out with MOTU, ranged combat WAS broken in that you didn't get your +25% for being proficient).

You didn't have an 88 to hit, you rolled a 10% when attempting to hit a monster with whatever AC it has and an attack bonus of +86.
The formula is:
Chance to hit = (player attack bonus +10.5) / (monster AC *2) + .25 (if proficient)

This chance to hit is then rounded to the nearest 5% and converted to a target "to hit" number for your roll; if you roll under the target, you miss (graze).
The way the math works out on this is that when you roll a 2, you are quite likely to miss regardless of what you do. 10% is quite low, after all.

You can reverse engineer monster ACs this way, however. In your case, we can find a minimum AC the monster must have for you to miss on a 2 there. This means your chance to hit was less than 90% (actually it might mean less than 87.5% depending on if they actually round or just drop fractions when converting to the nearest 5% but close enough for now - I haven't bothered to figure that out. I *think* it was stated by a dev, but a) you can't search it up and b) you can't be sure that it works the way the dev thinks it works anyway).

So:
.9 > ( 86 + 10.5 ) / (AC * 2) +.25
.65 > 96.5 / (2*AC)
AC > 74.2

Any mob with 74 AC or less, you'll hit on a 2. More than that, and a 2 will miss.

17. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
Like I'll ever be done trolling?
Knowing more about the topic you troll about makes you the more effective troll. First you scare people with your knowledge and then you troll 'em hard.

18. Originally Posted by Teh_Troll
Chai's point was nonsense, but he was right about search being completely borked so we can't find how things are supposed to work.

We need a dev to comment.
Since you play on lamannia from time to time you should know that it works the way they stated it does, as I outlined. If you roll a total resul, that gets calculated into a percentage, then it gets rolled as that percentage. This is why feats like precision add percent chances rather than bonuses to the d20 roll.

If your total result of 84 = 96% and your total result of 75 = 92%, the computer can still roll a 02 on the d100 for the 96% (miss, or graze) and a 28 on the d100 for the 92% (hit). You also have to remember the dodge percentage. We get feats and abilities that allow us to bypass certain dodge percentages on our attacks, so we know the mobs have dodge as well. I wish I could find that formula, because they did type it all out in one of the Lamannia threads back when the AC pass was happening.

19. Originally Posted by Nibor
You didn't have an 88 to hit
That is exactly what he had.

The problem is, it's massively buggy. Like most of the game anymore.

20. Originally Posted by Chai
You also have to remember the dodge percentage. We get feats and abilities that allow us to bypass certain dodge percentages on our attacks, so we know the mobs have dodge as well. I wish I could find that formula, because they did type it all out in one of the Lamannia threads back when the AC pass was happening.
It's going to be amusing watching the Forums explode when Turbine adds a Raid or something with a boss with Alignment DR, Metal DR and high Dodge. Trying to bypass all that to actually damage the mob should be interesting.

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