I haven't seen any items with 4 different variable effect subsets let alone 10.....
Typically the original posted equip items have one variable and weapons a couple, so the math may be right if there were a large number of effects on the item with all those items being variable but they are not realistic numbers for items with only one variable effect.
Its pure scaremongering that's all it is, you can try and say the numbers are correct but in the my world if the chance of something occurring is 1.95% it's either written as:
A. 1.95%
0r
B. 0.0195
Putting the % symbol behind 0.0195 is entirely misleading. If 1.95% isn't the number and the number is actually 0.0195% for an item that has a 5% drop rate with a variable that has 4 different effects (so a 25% chance of any one of the 4 effects occurring) I'm calling BS!
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
You are not making any sense. The number is 0.0195%. Less than 1%. Less than 0.1%. Much less actually.
% is misleading? I think you should learn math. There are numbers smaller than 1 you know?
The chance to drop the exact item you want from a chest, with this Random Named items, is 0.0195%.
Take the Skullduggery Kit. 3 variables ONLY from screenshots.
That's 0.05*(0.25^3) = 0,078125% to drop the one you want.
AND EVEN IF it was just a 1%, it's still 100 runs to get the one you want
You don't like Random named items anymore, do you? Amusing
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
Aww someone is mad because he doesn't like the chances of his shinies.
I did tell you to learn the math. I still believe it. You have the formula in the previous pages, not too hard to figure the numbers out.
Now you can go back to suggest the changes for the items you loved until you've actually seen how much they suck.
No your math is wrong pure and simple, to suggest that an item that has a 5% chance of dropping that has 1 variable effect with 1 of 3 different effects has a 0.00122% chance of dropping the one with the variable effect you want, I think you need to stop and think for a second.
Personally I think the answer is more like 1.66% but of course that is using an assumption of a 5% drop rate, we don't actually know the base drop rate.
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
Oh because 1% is so much better. You just need to get real. 5% is already absurd. 1% is terrible.
Let's play your game. By your calculation (because you obviously did 5% / 3 effects), you should more like do 5/6 because every single item has AT least 6 different effects.
This is by following YOUR math: 5/6 = 0,83%
Wooo, now YES, these are going to fall from the sky!
Amusing.
So tell me how much more likely an item is to drop at 0.83% than your supposed *correct* math at 0.0012% chance and we will see amusing, those are the supposed correct numbers you have been pushing around and basically telling people that their math is plain wrong.
You sir are owned pure and simple.
As the saying goes, "It's time for you to build a bridge."
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
Well you do realize that you first posted for me to "Learn my math" when you were posting completely insane numbers yet touting them as correct?
Also you have touted me as a Hypocrite in other threads, so you know you need to start expecting this sort of a response.
I was actually hoping this flame war would be over, we are getting the items we are getting, variable effects don't seem to be the worst thing about many of these items and there are many that won't suit any builds.
Would be nice if they could rush through some last minute changes to buff some of this stuff but I'm not holding my breath.
Toons:
Smallmans Syndrome, Rovac, Dragnipur, Prettyhater Machine, Lubed, Castinfist
Emmpeethree, Hyperkill Hyperthrill and Greyvegas (All on Khyber)
I don't like people that like something just because they think they will benefit them and some other few people.
I've given enough examples to you and to the Devs to make them understand that Random effects are not wanted, now or ever. Yet you still screamed for them, in your naiveness, thinking that they would make every item like GH Helms.
In the end, I was right. They are making them like ES challenges despise the many suggestions and threads that I personally made in this same forum. I've been ignored and with me every other player that understands how Random effects on Named loot can affect negatively this game.
But at the end of the day, everyone lose. You wanted Random Named loot and gotta suck this **** up now. We wanted to get rid of them but have been ignored. Devs will have tons of players who will not have a reason to play this game until the next big patch. Because we all know items and grindings are the main focus of every endgame player. Without items, there is nothing to grind for.
tl;dr: Wizza, the formula you're using was made for a situation that doesn't exist and is not applicable to the way you are using it.
I'm not going to read through the entire argument between the two of you, but the lists near the beginning of the thread calculate the drop rate of items with 4-10 different random sets of 4 different possible effects for each of those random effects. If an item has 10 different effects on it, I'm probably not going to care if each of them is optimal.
Ignoring Eveningstar challenge items, the highest amount of different effects we have on a single item is 2, from what I've seen. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only ones with 2 random effects are Prison Break and the cloak(s). In the case of that the axe, it seems to be <Alignment or Force (4-5)> and <Elemental, including sonic (5)>. In the case of the the Cloaks, <Elemental absorb (5)> and <One of 14 effects>.
[Pointless]
Let's assume you're looking for an electric cloak with resistance +10 on it.
Assuming the chance to pull it is 3% (lower than previously accepted in this thread), and that the 5 elemental types and 14 different other effects drop equally. This also assumes that a cloak has a 3% drop chance, and not that each differently named cloak has a 3% drop chance.
0.03*(1/5)*(1/14) = 0.000428
Dun'Robar rings had 5 and 6 random effects. Assuming a 4% drop rate on EE, and that each effect drops equally...
0.04*(1/5)*(1/6) = 0.00133
[/Pointless]
These numbers are absolutely meaningless, because none of us knows what the drop rate is. If we did, we wouldn't be using a 5% drop rate. Because of that, we can just make up numbers to suit our agenda.
Using only known numbers, Dun'Robar rings have 30 different combinations, the cloak(s) have 70 different combinations, and the Prison Break has 20 or 25 different combinations(depending on if an evil version exists).
For most people, the cloak is just going to be swapped on when dealing with that specific elemental type. The other effect isn't going to matter. In that case, there are effectively only 5 different combinations.
Where are the 3 variables? I see 3 constants (exc int skills, exc dex skills, slot) based on difficulty, and 1 variable effect with 12 different combinations. Assuming your 5% drop rate, that's a 0.42% drop rate of the specific one that you want.
The chance for two events to occur is equal to the product of each event occurring exclusively. By your assumption the chance of it dropping is 5%. Assuming it drops, the chance of it having one particular effect is 1/12. Therefore, the chance of it dropping for you with that effect each time you open that chest is 5%*(1/12), or 0.42%.
0.25 has no relevance to this case. Nothing has a 1 in 4 chance of happening, so don't use it.
Last edited by apep1412; 08-11-2013 at 10:15 AM.
It's twice as likely to pull a particular dragon helm that you want and less than half as likely to pull a particular dun'robar ring. It's just a number. It means nothing without context.
Enough with the randomly generated attributes on named loot. A few items are ok, but overall, it's getting incredibly frustrating. I can't believe that all the loot from a single pack is going to be randomized.
God.... It's like I'd be better off trying to grind for specific stats on random-gen loot.
Does Turbine really think that this mechanic will make us run the content more? It's likely to make us all sick of the pack, the way we all got sick of running Refuge for Dragontouched shiz.
Pallai, Saraphima, Chennai
Ascent, Argo
No fancy formatting for you!
The skullduggery kit has one(!) permutation on it, the other fixtures are constants.
Of the permutations on the Skullduggery kit there are either 6 or 12 fixtures that can show up on the item.
(6 or 12 as I don't know if the skills get a second roll to determine what skills.)
So that's either 16,67% chance of getting the non skill permutation fixture and 2,78% of getting the right skill permutation fixture on that Skullduggery kit.
Or it's 8,33% of getting the one out of twelve fixtures on it.
I went through the named items of update 19 and none of the items have more then one permutation fixture on them.
The one thing you can complain about is that some of the items seem to have an extended list with permutation fixtures on them.
For instance the Prismatic Cloak has thirteen of them (7,69%).
Now the question remains, what is the chance of one of the named items dropping for you inside a quest?
As this does effect the chance of you being able to obtain any named item at all.
One, two! One, two! and through and through. The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head. He went galumphing back.