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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beethoven View Post
    There was not a lot special going on in March 2010 as far as I know. However, in late 2009 DDO made big news as the first western MMORPG to go ftp. According to various gaming sites in late 2009/early 2010 DDO increased both revenue and subscribers by as much as 200-500%.
    Runescape had been F2P before DDO was even published. I'd wager that Runescape was and is still bigger than DDO. Pretty sure it's 'Western'.

  2. #62
    Community Member FlaviusMaximus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebastianosmith View Post
    I'm not a fanboi so please take this as a simple observation; without a year-over-year comparison these data mean relatively little about the overall number of players in the game or give any indication of what has produced a downward, quarterly slope. Presenting those data, if available, may lend some insight.
    I'm glad at least one intelligent person is posting in this thread.

  3. #63
    Community Member FlaviusMaximus's Avatar
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    There is no data to back up my suspicions about the state of the DDO population, but the fact that DDO has been doing so many things to get revenue during 2012/2013; two paid expansions, a real money auction house, otto's box, +3s and +4 tomes being made available for the first time in the store almost back to back, that it makes me wonder if player populations are down, requiring them to squeeze a bit more money out of the remaining customers.

    In fact, one reason I think things like bug fixes seem to be last on the priority list is that many of the updates now seem to be more about having something new to sell, and that's sort of where the focus is. I'm going to assume, perhaps ignorantly, that this is out of necessity.

    Suppositions and assumptions aside, what we really need is meaningful data. Otherwise we are just guessing.
    Last edited by FlaviusMaximus; 06-26-2013 at 04:35 AM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebastianosmith View Post
    This is why I don't try to interpret incomplete data. Those data presented in the OP give no indication whatsoever as to the state of player retention. They also don't differentiate total number of logins from unique logins. In short, they display nothing more than the supposed count of a particular IP sequence being invoked over a given time period. Viewing those data as anything other than that is denying reality.
    Agreed without any further data or even older data to correlate the graph will always be interpreted in a way so it shows what the person interpreting wants to see. Usually that interpretation is then reinforced by anectdotal evidence.
    So basically people are just reasserting the view they already had.
    Nothing to see here really.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by RightToRemainStupid View Post
    Some people are so desperate for attention and a response, they will do or say anything. I wouldn't make the mistake of equating that with any genuine expression of opinion or display of emotion. There are many people who use these forums as a tool for getting taken notice of, even if that attention more often than not consists of a kick back into the corner. The trick is to identify them early and relegate them to the 'junk mail' folder.
    There definitely are some idiots on here with nothing but negative comments to add to any discussion. If they were half as clever as they pretend to be, you'd think they would propose something constructive.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by deadlock View Post
    There definitely are some idiots on here with nothing but negative comments to add to any discussion. If they were half as clever as they pretend to be, you'd think they would propose something constructive so they can be summarily ignored by Turbine.
    ftfy.
    Last edited by Archangel_666; 06-26-2013 at 07:31 AM. Reason: Forums removed Capitalisation.

  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironclans_evil_twin View Post
    snip
    And your point is?
    You post an approximative estimate and present it in a completely biased way to prove what is self evident, for the purpose of...?
    I really don't get it; some people have left, some will join, some more will leave. Is this a reason to put some blame on Turbine? Granted, there's plenty of blame to be tossed in their direction. But I don't think you have a logical argument there, sorry.
    I mean, you actively spend time looking for numbers that say that DDO is leaking users to come here and tell us that the game is dying? What is that behaviour supposed to tell us?

    As you can see, your post opens up more questions than the answers it provides.

  8. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by RightToRemainStupid View Post
    Runescape had been F2P before DDO was even published. I'd wager that Runescape was and is still bigger than DDO. Pretty sure it's 'Western'.
    54k players logged in Runescape atm... I think it's a tie.

  9. #69

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    For anyone still reading who is interested in how gaming companies use actual player metric data to determine churn, Gamasutra published a pair of articles by Dmitry Nozhnin on the subject last year. Here are links to Part 1 - Predicting Churn: Data-Mining Your Game and Part 2 - Predicting Churn: When Do Veterans Quit? Both are very informative and highlight the difficulty of determining exactly why players leave a game.
    The newest computer can merely compound, at speed, the oldest problem in the relations between human beings, and in the end the communicator will be confronted with the old problem, of what to say and how to say it. - Edward R. Murrow (1964)

  10. #70
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    Originally Posted by Deadlock
    There definitely are some idiots on here with nothing but negative comments to add to any discussion. If they were half as clever as they pretend to be, you'd think they would propose something constructive so they can be summarily ignored by Turbine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Archangel_666 View Post
    ftfy.
    Not entirely true

    Quote Originally Posted by Deadlock View Post
    Was it a year ago that they had the Build Your Guild event? I'm sitting in a supermarket cafe atm, so can't check back in our guild renown log.

    Maybe instead of reintroducing that event for this summer, Turbine could just do an experiment and turn off the renown decay for a month or two, measure the impact that it has, and see for themselves that it hasn't broken the game in any way and that we're better off with renown decay just turned off completely?

  11. #71
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    nvm
    Last edited by RightToRemainStupid; 06-26-2013 at 09:32 AM.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlaviusMaximus View Post
    I'm glad at least one intelligent person is posting in this thread.
    I agree that Sebastian is intelligent, but you cannot say others are wrong. Just look at the numbers and tell me if you think I am wrong.

    Why did Turbine turn off decay for nearly two months? Why are they just now thinking of altering the xp needed for a tr? Why are these two things coming up now?

    Is it because the only “end game” we will have is to tr, even after the expansion? Are they trying to keep the players that are currently playing happy so that they do not walk away as well?

    Sure it is just speculation because we do not know what Turbine’s numbers look like, but why did they not address the problem with guild decay or the amount of xp needed when people were complaining about it years ago? From what I see (no matter how unintelligent you think it is) is that Turbine realizes that they are starting to lose to many –people and they will have to start giving people what they want before they lose to many to sustain the game.

    If this is unintelligent please let me know how with more than just calling it a troll or im a jerk post.
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  13. #73
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vint View Post
    Why did Turbine turn off decay for nearly two months? Why are they just now thinking of altering the xp needed for a tr? Why are these two things coming up now?
    Because the end-game is boring as sin and they need something to keep people playing for the next two months while we wait for the "expansion?"

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vint View Post
    Why did Turbine turn off decay for nearly two months? Why are they just now thinking of altering the xp needed for a tr? Why are these two things coming up now?
    I don't see anything particularly meaningful of the timing of these things, decay is taking a summer holiday, which coincides with the Build Your Guild event from the same time last year. I'm pretty sure that altering the xp curve has been in discussion repeatedly over the years - I'd guess that by the time we hear any announcements about it, it's already been in the pipeline for 6 month. Any company has to tread a fine line between listening to their community, not being over-reactive to a phantom crisis and exercising good business sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vint View Post
    Is it because the only “end game” we will have is to tr, even after the expansion? Are they trying to keep the players that are currently playing happy so that they do not walk away as well?
    You should always be trying to retain your veterans and existing players, the Epic TR system seems to me like a good way of doing this. Compare the development effort to create 100 hours of new content compared to allowing a character to Epic TR, gain an increment of power and replay 100 hours of existing content. I don't have any issues with this approach, provided it's crystal clear that this is optional for the diehards and that quests will not be scaled in any way to make it a requirement (and yes spellcasting needs fixed so that +9 Spell Pen from past lives doesn't become mandatory). Sure, it won't suit everyone, but when can you ever?

    In terms of attracting new players, I think that's part of the thinking behind the new enhancements, to try and make enhancements a more visual and transparent system for new players. I don't have any problem with clicking "show unavailable" and scrolling up and down a list to see what pre-requisites I need for Prestige tiers, but then I'm used to doing it. We already know that we have one of the best gameplay and dynamic combat systems of any MMO, we have better build diversity that allows players to be genuinely creative in their character creation, so the question is how to package that better?

    I think part of the answer to that is to enhance the current quest experience, add more voice talent and GM narration and emphasise the storyline elements. It's maybe of little interest to veterans and not something that's relevant when you're doing a 36 hr TR train to cap a Legend, but it definitely adds to the atmosphere of the world that we have. For an example, take the Sharn Syndicate quests, nice low level quests, decent XP but I think the storyline could be tied together better, how many people know who the Boromar Clan are and how they fit into that storyline? how many care? or is that something that's intentionally left for you to do your own research to unravel more of? Give Yorrick Amanatu GM narration as well as the text to explain the storyline and I think that would be better. Also for that chain, what's the connection to the guardians of the hidden treasure room in there? Is that Yorrick's personal vault?

    Ultimately, bringing new people in the door is down to your marketing and sales team, keeping them here is down to the gameplay experience and the community. Maybe some sort of in-game mentoring incentive would help with that?

  15. #75
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deadlock View Post
    You should always be trying to retain your veterans and existing players, the Epic TR system seems to me like a good way of doing this. Compare the development effort to create 100 hours of new content compared to allowing a character to Epic TR, gain an increment of power and replay 100 hours of existing content. I don't have any issues with this approach, provided it's crystal clear that this is optional for the diehards and that quests will not be scaled in any way to make it a requirement (and yes spellcasting needs fixed so that +9 Spell Pen from past lives doesn't become mandatory). Sure, it won't suit everyone, but when can you ever?
    Epic TR is not going to help the end-game at all.

    There will still be nothing to do.

    There needs to be more CONTENT worth running. That's it.

    Quick and dirty: Epicify the old raids and give them all relevant loot.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grosbeak07 View Post
    Welcome to MMO's in the era of Free to play gaming.

    People are just going to float between games, come back when a new update hits and then leave once they have done it and bounce to 3 other games.

    A lot of MMO's are complaining about a lack of players. The MMO player base I think is just starting to get spread out with so many games out there (and even more on the horizon)
    It's inevitable as the raw population of MMOs grew, the fragmentation of a more finite player base continued. This isn't likely a trend that will be reversed given the vast growth pattern in technology is in the mobile space (mobile devices just passed the 1B mark, and 1.5M Android activiations per day), and many new technology users in the future will have less of a need for devices beyond a tablet, a fact unconducive to widening the raw MMO gaming population. Despite the accelerating spread of technology, some analysts were calling the MMO market saturated last year which is probably where we're at now.

    DDO in my experience is a keyboard intensive experience for most players. That has an innate disadvantage given the current trending to gesture controls and mobile devices as a primary device, but that also probably applies to a lot of MMOs out there. Which isn't to say MMOs are doomed, but there very likely is going to be a cap on the population at which point fighting over market share and brand positioning becomes of utmost importance.

    Turbine has zero evident comprehension on how to position or promote DDO as a brand. I'll be at SDCC in 21+ days, ultimately one of the key places where brands are discovered and relaunched to the devoted, and I'm sure if I randomly ask attendees if they know about DDO, I'll get mostly quizzical looks in response.

  17. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by myliftkk_v2 View Post
    Turbine has zero evident comprehension on how to position or promote DDO as a brand.
    Sadly, this is close to truth. The target audience for this game has been and will continue be for a while yet those people who played or still play D&D. That's a small but significant market segment in terms of the overall gaming space as it is comprised mostly of individuals well into or entering their peak professional earning capacity. That group should be considered "whales" as they have limited time, a healthy disposable income and a desire to recapture or expand upon something remembered fondly. While many of the latest additions to the Store and several mechanic revisions have been obviously targeted at this group, such measures cater only to those individuals already playing and rely solely on word-of-mouth as a recruitment tool. Turbine needs to directly target this group with advertisements outside the game. I am quite certain WB has the marketing research and data to do this. The only question is will such efforts be considered ROI-worthy. Time, as always, will be the final arbiter.
    The newest computer can merely compound, at speed, the oldest problem in the relations between human beings, and in the end the communicator will be confronted with the old problem, of what to say and how to say it. - Edward R. Murrow (1964)

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebastianosmith View Post
    Sadly, this is close to truth. The target audience for this game has been and will continue be for a while yet those people who played or still play D&D. That's a small but significant market segment in terms of the overall gaming space as it is comprised mostly of individuals well into or entering their peak professional earning capacity. That group should be considered "whales" as they have limited time, a healthy disposable income and a desire to recapture or expand upon something remembered fondly. While many of the latest additions to the Store and several mechanic revisions have been obviously targeted at this group, such measures cater only to those individuals already playing and rely solely on word-of-mouth as a recruitment tool. Turbine needs to directly target this group with advertisements outside the game. I am quite certain WB has the marketing research and data to do this. The only question is will such efforts be considered ROI-worthy. Time, as always, will be the final arbiter.
    WB has a great presence at SDCC. The DDO portion of that presence, in a place where arguably the crowd would be exceedingly well-positioned to receive their product (full passes are now ~$175/person just to attend), will be zero as it has been every year DDO has existed.

    In a world filled with the endless white noise of pop culture marketing, word-of-mouth is not a viable solo marketing tactic. You still have to pound the pavement or you're a dying brand in people's mind.

  19. #79
    Community Member Ironclans_evil_twin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlaviusMaximus View Post
    I'm glad at least one intelligent person is posting in this thread.
    There is nothing intelligent about hand waving 6 months of data that correlates to basic observations. It's actually irrational to dismiss evidence simply because you don't want to believe it.

    It is also anti-intellectual to characterize one side of an argument as "intelligent" while implying the opposite of the other side, simply because you agree with that side.

  20. #80
    Community Member Thrudh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    Everyone may now continue to hate the game you play.
    LOL.

    I may be a fanboi, but at least I'm not a bat-****-crazy lunatic. Because if you continue to play a game you hate, there's seriously something wrong with you... On the other hand, if you secretly enjoy playing a game, but you continue to post bile about it, there's also something seriously wrong with you.

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    When you stop caring about xp/min this game becomes really fun. Trust me.
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