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  1. #21
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebastianosmith View Post
    I try not to make assumptions about interpretation of data with which I am not familiar or is obviously scant. Any attempt to do so would be, at best, base conjecture on my part and provide nothing more than an insight into any preconceived notions I may or may not possess on the subject in question.
    If our conjecture wasn't true Turbine could simply post real numbers to refute it.

    Seriously, denying player numbers are down is denying reality.

    We should get a decent bump in late August when the "expansion" hits. But it's not addressing the big issues so it'll be temporary at best.

    I'm still having fun . . . but the game is more fun when there's a zillion LFMs and/or guild/channel groups and you're torn as to what cool thing you want to do next.

  2. #22
    Scholar Of Adventure & Hero Missing_Minds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    If our conjecture wasn't true Turbine could simply post real numbers to refute it.
    When was the last time you saw an MMO company post actual numbers? Such data tends to be guarded very carefully.

    The last time I saw actual numbers posted by any game was out of EVE when they did their massive gold farmer removal from their game.

  3. #23

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    This game's been on a downward spiral since U11. Can it recover? I'd like to hope so, but how i have no idea.
    Easy.

    1) Update 19 - Nothing but bug fixes and quality of life improvements. The list of bug fixes should be at least 4 pages long. Included in these fixes is that every single item, spell, and ability has its bonus type specifically quantified to eliminate any possible confusion about what stacks with what.

    2) The expansion - Without changing the price, the expansion is...expanded. Instead of 2 adventure packs and 2 explorer areas, the expansion is bulked up to include: 6 adventure packs (5-6 quests each), 3 explorer areas, 4 raids.

    3) The Enhancement revamp is cancelled, because it's an irretrievable mess that never should have made alpha status. Instead, all classes have all of their PrEs implemented and taken to Tier3 (or Tier5, if it's set up like Archmage).

    4) Dump the entire epic TR program, and particularly eliminate even the slightest trace that the devs even considered for a microsecond stripping out people's hard-earned ED XP when TRing.

    5) Go ahead with the XP smoothing on TR2+. Spread out the burden currently lumped at 17-20, and spread it down to 12, so a much larger number of quests are available to get that XP.

    6) Split heroic and epic quest completions so that repeat counters are not affected for L20+ dungeons.

    7) Stop showing utter contempt for your customers. Yes, customers. Not players, CUSTOMERS. You know, those people who quite literally pay your salaries?

    The last one will be the hardest.
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  4. #24
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Missing_Minds View Post
    When was the last time you saw an MMO company post actual numbers? Such data tends to be guarded very carefully.

    The last time I saw actual numbers posted by any game was out of EVE when they did their massive gold farmer removal from their game.
    Don't need to the details, but if a Majormal came on and said "player numbers aren't down" I'd believe him.

    Part of addressing an issue is being honest about it. Denying doesn't work. Player retention is down . . . why? How can it be fixed? That's what should be discussed not denying reality.

  5. #25
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matuse View Post
    Easy.

    1) Update 19 - Nothing but bug fixes and quality of life improvements. The list of bug fixes should be at least 4 pages long. Included in these fixes is that every single item, spell, and ability has its bonus type specifically quantified to eliminate any possible confusion about what stacks with what.

    2) The expansion - Without changing the price, the expansion is...expanded. Instead of 2 adventure packs and 2 explorer areas, the expansion is bulked up to include: 6 adventure packs (5-6 quests each), 3 explorer areas, 4 raids.

    3) The Enhancement revamp is cancelled, because it's an irretrievable mess that never should have made alpha status. Instead, all classes have all of their PrEs implemented and taken to Tier3 (or Tier5, if it's set up like Archmage).

    4) Dump the entire epic TR program, and particularly eliminate even the slightest trace that the devs even considered for a microsecond stripping out people's hard-earned ED XP when TRing.

    5) Go ahead with the XP smoothing on TR2+. Spread out the burden currently lumped at 17-20, and spread it down to 12, so a much larger number of quests are available to get that XP.

    6) Split heroic and epic quest completions so that repeat counters are not affected for L20+ dungeons.

    7) Stop showing utter contempt for your customers. Yes, customers. Not players, CUSTOMERS. You know, those people who quite literally pay your salaries?

    The last one will be the hardest.
    As nice as the list sounds in fantasy land let's stick with reality.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enoach View Post
    Is it to late to blame NFL Play 60?

    I'm not sure we have enough data to properly predict the trend. I also expect the planned August Release may bump the numbers, maybe not as much as Epic Giant Hold (Based mostly on not having a Raid).

    But there is still no way to predict a mass exodus of DDO at least until we get "Final" on the Enhancement Pass.
    While I certainly expect the next expansion to effect the numbers I'm not sure it'll be a bump...

    IMO, two raidless quest packs aren't likely to bring a ton of interest. Raising the level cap (and thus the amount of xp needed to reach it) with such a minimal increase in the available xp is... Not good math.

    While I imagine many people who've been hovering out there, waiting for the enhancement changes will come back long enough to see what effect the changes have on their toons/the game, I think weather or not they stay will depend on just how much of a "toon change" vs "toon destruction" ratio we get. People who don't want to start all or most of their builds from scratch (if this is what's needed) will probably log out for the last time...

    Plus, now we have this new looming Spector of the potential ETR/HTR wiping destiny xp. Some (many?) people have gone into a holding pattern over this, and how it gets resolved will effect if & when they ever come back...

    Added to that, someone decided it would be a great idea to make Wayfinder the default world to toss the new players into, so any new commers will see the deadest place in the game (woot! 1 whole lfm on the entire panel!) as their first exposure to the player population...

    Which of the above bodes well for long term health?
    Last edited by PermaBanned; 06-25-2013 at 02:09 PM.
    Now excuse me while I wander off to arm myself with Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and hunker down behind my Armored Beer Refrigerator, while I have the UFO's take control of the Congresional Wives with the help of the International Cocaine Smugglers and the Evil Geniuses for a Better Tomorrow

  7. #27
    The Hatchery danotmano1998's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matuse View Post
    Easy.

    1) Update 19 - Nothing but bug fixes and quality of life improvements.

    2) The expansion - Without changing the price, the expansion is...expanded.

    3) The Enhancement revamp is cancelled, because it's an irretrievable mess that never should have made alpha status.

    4) Dump the entire epic TR program, and particularly eliminate even the slightest trace that the devs even considered for a microsecond stripping out people's hard-earned ED XP when TRing.

    5) Go ahead with the XP smoothing on TR2+. Spread out the burden currently lumped at 17-20, and spread it down to 12, so a much larger number of quests are available to get that XP.

    6) Split heroic and epic quest completions so that repeat counters are not affected for L20+ dungeons.
    I'd vote "Hell Yes!" on all the above. +1 indeed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chilldude
    Dude, did you see they way that guy just pressed button 1? It was amazing! A display of skill unseen since the 1984 World Games where in the men's room, between events, a man washed his hands with such unbridled majesty that people were claiming the faucet he used was OP.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chai View Post
    Ironically they were the ones telling everyone else that if they dont like DDO they should go do something else. Maybe 25% of those who got told in such a manner actually listened.
    Hopefully they did leave. The forums have been less packed with crazies as well, which is a good thing. Perhaps players will come to the forums now and they can lose the reputation as a place for drama queens that don't actually play the game.

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Part of addressing an issue is being honest about it. Denying doesn't work. Player retention is down . . . why? How can it be fixed? That's what should be discussed not denying reality.
    This is why I don't try to interpret incomplete data. Those data presented in the OP give no indication whatsoever as to the state of player retention. They also don't differentiate total number of logins from unique logins. In short, they display nothing more than the supposed count of a particular IP sequence being invoked over a given time period. Viewing those data as anything other than that is denying reality.
    The newest computer can merely compound, at speed, the oldest problem in the relations between human beings, and in the end the communicator will be confronted with the old problem, of what to say and how to say it. - Edward R. Murrow (1964)

  10. #30
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sebastianosmith View Post
    This is why I don't try to interpret incomplete data. Those data presented in the OP give no indication whatsoever as to the state of player retention. They also don't differentiate total number of logins from unique logins. In short, they display nothing more than the supposed count of a particular IP sequence being invoked over a given time period. Viewing those data as anything other than that is denying reality.
    Check your Who list.

    Last Tuesday at 8 PM eastern there were about 500 people on Ghallanda.

    500

    That's it.

    Are you really arguing that player numbers are NOT down?

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    We don't have this data, but do you think for a second that the game population is anywhere near it's peek which was pre-U11?

    U11 is when things started going down hill. I mean the best thing about DDO in 2011 was the bag-bug.

    Can this be reversed? I'm not sure.

    Biggest issue now is end-game is dead. how does Turbine bring it back? Epic TR sure ain't gonna do it with people starting again at level 1.
    Endgame is dead because this is a seven year old game, and non-casual players have grinded all the content. I would love to hear your suggestions on how to better a DDO endgame that doesn't revolve around PvP. This simple fact is that TRing is the endgame because we don't have PvP. If you add some more endgame packs, that'll keep me in endgame an extra week. If you lower drop rates and lower endgame XP, that'll keep me around for an extra month.

    Perhaps the vision you see for DDO endgame isn't possible, and that's why TRing is the DDO endgame.

  12. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Check your Who list.

    Last Tuesday at 8 PM eastern there were about 500 people on Ghallanda.

    500

    That's it.

    Are you really arguing that player numbers are NOT down?
    I'm not arguing anything other than the data presented do not support the suppositions you are making. That's it. If you have some other agenda, do try to refrain from using the aforementioned dataset as a basis for legitimizing your points either directly or indirectly as it simply weakens your argument.
    The newest computer can merely compound, at speed, the oldest problem in the relations between human beings, and in the end the communicator will be confronted with the old problem, of what to say and how to say it. - Edward R. Murrow (1964)

  13. #33
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    Welcome to MMO's in the era of Free to play gaming.

    People are just going to float between games, come back when a new update hits and then leave once they have done it and bounce to 3 other games.

    A lot of MMO's are complaining about a lack of players. The MMO player base I think is just starting to get spread out with so many games out there (and even more on the horizon)
    Magical Rings are well... magical. - Gandalf

  14. #34
    Community Member Ironclans_evil_twin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hendrik View Post
    Everyone may now continue to hate the game you play.
    So let me get this right; pointing out realities that probably should be dealt with by the Devs (advertizing, shaking out some of the very negative things they've done lately, revamping end game so there is actually something to do at cap) is "hating"?

    I think it's funny what incredible lengths some people will go through to continue believing what they want to believe instead of what's actually happening and has become apparent to most people playing, and in actual objective measurements like logins tracked by DDO tracker.

    For example one person says that 2 week data point in late winter long after the last years update but before epic GH, being around 17500, makes it so there's no decline apparent in a visual graph where even a young child could distinguish a downward trend... despite the fact that the graph is solidly around 15000 or lower now (mostly lower than that actually). This is a 15% drop all by itself. Comparing to a "peak" for example when eGH came out, and things were rocking along more, there's a 25% decline. Actually it's closer to 28% but I am rounding down and I am counting Thelanis and Khyber with more weight than the other servers, which is generous to the opposition on my part.

    If we had more exacting numbers (averages between the servers at each data point) I would not be surprised if the game is down 30% because most of the servers are dipping well below what Khyber and Thelanis are I am letting the most populated 2 servers drag all the others up... but that doesn't matter 25% is a huge number, and doesn't need to be painted any worse.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grosbeak07 View Post
    Welcome to MMO's in the era of Free to play gaming.

    People are just going to float between games, come back when a new update hits and then leave once they have done it and bounce to 3 other games.

    A lot of MMO's are complaining about a lack of players. The MMO player base I think is just starting to get spread out with so many games out there (and even more on the horizon)
    I understand also that the explosion of gaming on portable devices is affecting games like DDO. Does anyone have data that also shows such an influence on, say, WOW or others? Just a thought.

  16. #36
    Community Member Ironclans_evil_twin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    I'm still having fun . . . but the game is more fun when there's a zillion LFMs and/or guild/channel groups and you're torn as to what cool thing you want to do next.
    Me too.

  17. #37
    Scholar Of Adventure & Hero Missing_Minds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IRememberWhen View Post
    I understand also that the explosion of gaming on portable devices is affecting games like DDO. Does anyone have data that also shows such an influence on, say, WOW or others? Just a thought.
    WoW.... saw some news articles last month where their retention was down.. 20% or some such. Hence why they were trying to push some pay for equipment on their players. Or something. I forget the exact details honestly.

  18. #38
    Community Member Talon_Moonshadow's Avatar
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    I'm curious how you actualy get this data... but I'll assume it is accurate since the graphs do go up and down.......lol.

    Doesn't suprise me at al really.

    Where is the advetising for this game?
    All we ever get is some gamer reviews when we have an update. There needs to be a significant push for more advertizing IMO.

    People are trendy..... they want something new. (not me... but all of the other people...lol)

    They will go check out what ever new game comes along.

    They also want something for nothing. DDO is FtP.... to a point.

    Also, although I am not sure, I think the D&D name is not attracting as many people as it use to.
    This new generation doesn't have the nostalgic draw of the old tabletop games to entice them to play D&D.

    Then there is the unfriendliness issue.
    So just keep making new players feel unwelcome and see how long the game continues......

    As a community, we need to welcome new players, and make them want to stay here.

    Another issue is the end game. But I really feel most players don't have the same view I do of it....
    So I will just say that we need constant new end game content. To keep people interested.

    At least that is ho wI see it.
    Althogh I have to admit that I see evidience that that is not actually what most other players want.

    Curious what you guys actually do want......
    Cause it seems that few people run new content....... at least until somoen else ran it, figured it out... found out it had great XP or loot.. and found an easy way to get it.....

    If I were to judge solely on LFM. People want XP and loot and they want it fast... period.
    Some get bored.... but when you ask them what they want... they seem to say... more XP more loot... and make it faster..... not anything about new content to explore......

    weird IMO... but that is what the evidence shows me.

    If that is what I craved, I wouldn't stay here either......
    I would get bored ..... (fast! )

    Luckily, I enjoy every quest we have. I make alts to run things from a different perspective.
    I PUG for an even greater perspective and variety.

    Wish the hardest stuff was ran by more people more often..... but ... oh well...
    Wish rarely run content was run more often...... but it seems that unless it offeres XP or loot (and its fast.... ) people are not interested.

    Whatever.

    I'll be here to the end either way.
    (but if I ever get a new computer, I may go play some other gamees for awhile.. and maybe one will win my heart again someday.)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jandric View Post
    ..., but I honestly think the solution is to group with less whiny people.

  19. #39
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    How to get the numbers up?

    Finish the Enhancement pass and the Epic TR system based on the overwhelming concensus from the players who have given the feedback, and then a positive marketing blitz pushing the detailed nature of the game and content rich world to give you a properly immersive D&D experience. Sell the complexity, just call it many-layered and detailed. Don't try and dumb it down.

    Basically position yourself as the place where Neverwinter kids will graduate to but piggyback on any interest in D&D that Neverwinter has created, then when it folds, you're well placed to pick up some more. And with the rights to another D&D movie already in the off, be ready to engage with that marketing too.

    Speak to Wizards of the Coast and get them to put a code for a month's VIP subscription with the hardback version of D&D Next when it goes to print. Call it franchise support. We're already F2P (ish) but that's obviously not cutting it, so offer a month's VIP for them to try us out.

    Make a concerted effort to have regular communication with the player base, because like it or not, with some us having invested up to 7 years with DDO we have an inflated and illogical sense of entitlement. Don't give us marketing speak. Give us a sensible expectation for a schedule of bug fixes to address the issues that we're all aware of, and accept that we won't turn up outside Turbine offices with burning torches and pitchforks if schedules slip for genuine reasons. Give us a regular development diary so that we can see what's going on behind the scenes and tell us more about some of the design concepts you're aiming for to help demystify what we see as bizarre design decisions.

    As for the graphs, there's lies, damn lies and statistics. What I can tell you is that there are times of the day where we definitely could do with more people around.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Missing_Minds View Post
    3. End of April onward signifies end of semester test times, to summer vacations, sports, etc. till August in the U.S. As a good chunk of players are in the U.S. it is logical to see a drop here.
    You forgot the corresponding player increase from all the US kids being out of school, with a ton of free time to burn. Their numbers far exceed the number of older players who decide to take a summer DDO vacation. Come September, the cry will be "Where is everyone?" just like last year, and the years before.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    instant quest recall . . . I'll so miss you
    The best thing added to the game this year, albeit accidentally, and it is now gone. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. The blind squirrel which is Turbine just spits out the acorn, and wanders off in search of...a needless enhancement pass?

    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    And I look forward to your reply when stuff's dead again in October.
    We all remember what happened last October, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Matuse View Post
    Easy.

    1) Update 19 - Nothing but bug fixes and quality of life improvements. The list of bug fixes should be at least 4 pages long. Included in these fixes is that every single item, spell, and ability has its bonus type specifically quantified to eliminate any possible confusion about what stacks with what.

    2) The expansion - Without changing the price, the expansion is...expanded. Instead of 2 adventure packs and 2 explorer areas, the expansion is bulked up to include: 6 adventure packs (5-6 quests each), 3 explorer areas, 4 raids.

    3) The Enhancement revamp is cancelled, because it's an irretrievable mess that never should have made alpha status. Instead, all classes have all of their PrEs implemented and taken to Tier3 (or Tier5, if it's set up like Archmage).

    4) Dump the entire epic TR program, and particularly eliminate even the slightest trace that the devs even considered for a microsecond stripping out people's hard-earned ED XP when TRing.

    5) Go ahead with the XP smoothing on TR2+. Spread out the burden currently lumped at 17-20, and spread it down to 12, so a much larger number of quests are available to get that XP.

    6) Split heroic and epic quest completions so that repeat counters are not affected for L20+ dungeons.

    7) Stop showing utter contempt for your customers. Yes, customers. Not players, CUSTOMERS. You know, those people who quite literally pay your salaries?

    The last one will be the hardest.
    This.

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