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  1. #121
    Community Member Teh_Troll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charononus View Post
    Provide this data I'll happily well not really because it would be a bad thing for the game, admit that I was wrong. I just don't accept snapshot data and anecdotal claims as proof of DoooOOOOOOooooMMMM!!!!!111!!!!1!!!!!1!!
    Prove that activity isn't down.

    like anyone's been collecting this data?

    I just know there's less activity at end-game (TRing is still booming) but this is normal a few months after the latest module is released and run into the ground.

    What I've also observed (though not scientifically documented) is "vets" are fewer than they used to be but there are a ton of new people. Surprisingly I've had very positive pugging experiences in the past couple TRs, sure it's been 4 vets and 1-2 puggers but they were fine.

    Vet membership is down, but it's inevitable that longtime players will get bored. new blood keeps the game alive, doe we have enough for this to continue on? I'm not sure.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Prove that activity isn't down.

    like anyone's been collecting this data?

    I just know there's less activity at end-game (TRing is still booming) but this is normal a few months after the latest module is released and run into the ground.

    What I've also observed (though not scientifically documented) is "vets" are fewer than they used to be but there are a ton of new people. Surprisingly I've had very positive pugging experiences in the past couple TRs, sure it's been 4 vets and 1-2 puggers but they were fine.

    Vet membership is down, but it's inevitable that longtime players will get bored. new blood keeps the game alive, doe we have enough for this to continue on? I'm not sure.
    Same here. I'm on all the time, almost 24/7. I monitor lfms all the time. End game is down, vets logged in are down.

    Proving that it isn't down is a perfect reply to dumb things like Hurr derpp prove game has less people111

  3. #123

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    Prove that activity isn't down.
    The ddoracle data suggests that it is not. The quarterly graph shows weekend peaks around 17.5k, except for the higher peaks around the release of U17. The more recently monthly graph has the same property. Likewise, the low points are just under 12.5k for a day, in both graphs. So, for around 5 / 6 months, the population appears to be in an approximately stable state. If we had more historical data and in numerical form, we could make stronger conclusions. If there is a downward trend, it is weak (as in, overwhelmed by noise in the visual data).

    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    like anyone's been collecting this data?
    Presumably Turbine. On a more useful note, ddoracle.com has been as well. And, using that data, there is not a significant downward trend.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teh_Troll View Post
    I just know there's less activity at end-game (TRing is still booming) but this is normal a few months after the latest module is released and run into the ground.

    What I've also observed (though not scientifically documented) is "vets" are fewer than they used to be but there are a ton of new people. Surprisingly I've had very positive pugging experiences in the past couple TRs, sure it's been 4 vets and 1-2 puggers but they were fine.

    Vet membership is down, but it's inevitable that longtime players will get bored. new blood keeps the game alive, doe we have enough for this to continue on? I'm not sure.
    My own personal experience would agree with change in population type theory, though not the end-game theory. I've been pugging several raids a night, without an issue filling. Primarily, Ascension Chamber, Tower of Despair, Shroud, Caught in the Web, and Fall of Truth. I don't think it has taken more then 30min (basically 15, excluding the always slow to fill abbot) to fill any of those in the last several weeks. That said, I have found a lot of people don't know even the older, popular raids like shroud, so a influx of new blood seems true. That is actually probably better for Turbine then "vets", as new players have more stuff to buy that vets already own (or, so I would guess).

    As 6-man quests, no idea. I don't pug those, I just run with real life friends. As to differences in perception, I'd guess it has to do with how many of your own circle of friends still play. LFMs are subject to preferential attachment (where people prefer to join LFMs that are closer to full). So, if you have a number of friends who still play (and at the same times as you), then you likely don't have an issue as they will join your lfm, which makes it easier to attract puggers. I am sure my raids group fill relatively quickly because they generally start with 3 - 6 people already in them.

  4. #124
    Community Member Charononus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrisdinus7 View Post
    The ddoracle data suggests that it is not. The quarterly graph shows weekend peaks around 17.5k, except for the higher peaks around the release of U17. The more recently monthly graph has the same property. Likewise, the low points are just under 12.5k for a day, in both graphs. So, for around 5 / 6 months, the population appears to be in an approximately stable state. If we had more historical data and in numerical form, we could make stronger conclusions. If there is a downward trend, it is weak (as in, overwhelmed by noise in the visual data).



    Presumably Turbine. On a more useful note, ddoracle.com has been as well. And, using that data, there is not a significant downward trend.



    My own personal experience would agree with change in population type theory, though not the end-game theory. I've been pugging several raids a night, without an issue filling. Primarily, Ascension Chamber, Tower of Despair, Shroud, Caught in the Web, and Fall of Truth. I don't think it has taken more then 30min (basically 15, excluding the always slow to fill abbot) to fill any of those in the last several weeks. That said, I have found a lot of people don't know even the older, popular raids like shroud, so a influx of new blood seems true. That is actually probably better for Turbine then "vets", as new players have more stuff to buy that vets already own (or, so I would guess).

    As 6-man quests, no idea. I don't pug those, I just run with real life friends. As to differences in perception, I'd guess it has to do with how many of your own circle of friends still play. LFMs are subject to preferential attachment (where people prefer to join LFMs that are closer to full). So, if you have a number of friends who still play (and at the same times as you), then you likely don't have an issue as they will join your lfm, which makes it easier to attract puggers. I am sure my raids group fill relatively quickly because they generally start with 3 - 6 people already in them.
    This.

    And the reason end game pugs are down is that en-eh you can solo while so drunk you're seeing two moniters. EE in general except for a few easier ones you don't want to run imo with a pug as pugs probably will be soul stones more than not.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalont View Post
    The LFM system is dead and not coming back. Due to the crappy playerbase in this game, no one wants to group with people they don't know. There's nothing Turbine can do about this, short of making each quest need a full party to complete, and this isn't a good idea. You're going to have to adapt or leave the game.
    This is such nonsense. What's happening to the grouping system is it takes so long to get anywhere with it most people don't bother, which results in a downward spiral of no ads are up and no one responds to ads because more and more people give up on having it go anywhere. What i see all the time on Orien is people put the ad up and then just begin soloing the quest themselves immediately with no wait period to try to pick up any members because they've given up that any will join and if some do, that's a perk, not something they're banking on.

    It's hard to view it as anything other than a dying out playerbase--- although I suspect that people having their "questing" down to a TR xp-grinding formula that they do on an "insider" basis with buddies, friends or guildmates probably doesn't help much.

    I've been a very long-time DDO player with a number of significant (~year+) gaps in my play so I've frequently come back to DDO to see fairly big changes in the gameplay, meta and community, and what I've seen happen over time is a combination of the game has gotten easier to low man on high difficulties, and people have figured out class combinations which more effectively do this (monk splash cough cough cough) and the need to group for virtually everyone who knows what they're doing has gone down significantly for everything but raids and maybe the very hardest few quests if you try to do them at-level. I don't really see any of these things as good changes to the game as much of the game community feels like it's engaged in a solo or two-man xp farming minigame while the people trying to group or play quote-unquote "as intended" can't find parties and certainly not balanced ones. BYOH has become rule of the day, the problem being that only a limited number of class and class mixes can perform on that basis reliably.

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