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  1. #1
    Community Member moomooprincess's Avatar
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    Default Daily Dice 560 FREE silver Dice rolls

    This is three weeks worth of data.

    1-25 Currency

    150 times / 560 rolls = 26.79%. A little higher than the 25% expected, but close enough.

    9 1s

    150 occurrences
    21 had astral shards with plat
    From this I deduce that there is a approximate 15% chance to get astral shard(s) with platinum

    1.....1010 plat
    1.....1014 plat, 1 astral shard
    1.....1027 plat
    1.....1030 plat
    1.....1037 plat
    1.....1041 plat
    1.....1041 plat
    1.....1050 plat, 2 astral shards
    1.....1059 plat
    2.....1023 Plat
    2.....1037 plat
    2.....1062 plat, 1 astral shard
    2.....1095 Plat
    3.....1003 Plat
    3.....1037 Plat
    3.....1048 plat
    3.....1051 plat
    3.....1055 plat
    3.....1063 plat
    3.....1066 plat
    3.....1071 plat
    3.....1075 plat
    3.....plat
    4.....1022 plat
    4.....1029 plat
    4.....1045 plat
    4.....1048 plat
    4.....1052 plat
    4.....1058 platinum
    4.....1083 plat
    4.....1084 plat
    5.....1029 plat
    5.....1044 Plat
    5.....1048 plat
    5.....1053 plat
    5.....1062 plat, 2 astral shards
    5.....1065 plat
    5.....1082 plat
    5.....1084 plat
    6.....1014 plat, 1 astral shard
    6.....1021 plat
    6.....1050 plat, 1 astral shard
    6.....991 plat, 2 astral shards
    6.....995 plat
    6.....997 plat
    7.....1007 Plat
    7.....1021 plat
    7.....1032 plat
    7.....1046 plat
    7.....1052 platinum
    7.....1060 plat
    7.....1060 Plat
    7.....1071 Plat
    7.....1076 plat, 2 astral shards
    8.....1020 plat, 1 astral shard
    8.....1033 plat
    8.....1053 plat
    8.....1053 plat
    8.....1057 plat
    9.....1022 Plat
    9.....1040 plat
    9.....1047 plat
    9.....1051 plat, 1 astral shard
    9.....1052 platinum
    10.....1016 plat
    10.....1025 plat
    10.....1027 plat
    10.....1033 plat
    10.....1045 Platinum
    10.....1053 plat
    10.....1054 plat
    10.....1064 plat
    11.....1049 Plat
    11.....1052 platinum
    11.....1054 plat
    11.....1066 plat
    11.....1074 plat, 2 astral shards
    11.....1098 plat
    12.....1017 plat
    12.....1018 plat
    12.....1063 Plat
    12.....1070 plat
    12.....plat
    13.....1043 plat
    13.....1061 plat
    13.....1078 plat
    14.....1030 plat
    14.....1047 plat
    14.....1053 plat
    14.....1055 plat
    14.....1063 plat
    14.....1067 plat
    14.....1068 plat
    14.....1074 plat
    14.....1082 plat, 2 astral shards
    14.....1086 plat
    14.....1098 plat
    15.....1015 plat
    15.....1036 plat, 2 astral shards
    15.....1054 plat
    16.....1044 plat
    17.....1008 plat
    17.....1019 plat
    17.....1050 plat
    17.....1054 Plat
    17.....1056 plat
    17.....1060 plat
    17.....1060 plat, 1 Astral shard
    17.....1081 plat, 1 astral shard
    18.....1009 plat
    18.....1020 plat, 1 astral shard
    18.....1064 plat
    18.....1071 plat
    18.....1071 plat
    18.....1090 plat
    18.....999 Plat
    19.....1021 plat, 1 astral shard
    19.....1039 plat
    19.....1048 plat
    19.....1053 plat
    19.....1064 plat
    19.....1074 plat
    19.....1083 plat
    20.....1026 plat
    20.....1047 plat
    20.....1061 plat
    21.....1023 plat
    21.....1032 plat
    21.....1051 plat, 1 astral shard
    21.....1090 plat
    22.....1019 plat
    22.....1030 plat, 1 astral shard
    22.....1048 plat
    22.....1050 plat
    22.....1064 plat
    22.....1080 plat
    22.....1081 plat
    23.....1036 plat
    23.....1064 plat
    23.....1083 plat
    24.....1024 plat, 1 astral shard
    24.....1028 Plat
    24.....1033 plat
    24.....1039 plat
    24.....1045 plat
    24.....1058 platinum
    24.....1071 plat
    24.....999 plat
    25.....1024 plat, 1 astral shard
    25.....1056 plat

    26-45 Collectables

    113 rolls 560 rolls = 20.18%. Pretty darn close to the 20% expected.

    14 rolls had astral shards. From this I will deduce there is a 10% chance to get astral shards with a collectable.
    No Lightning Split Soarwoods, but one small eberron dragonshard

    113 Occurences

    26.....academic treatise
    26.....Amulet of the Lost Empire, 3 Astral Shards
    26.....blessed candle
    26.....Powdered Blood, 110 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
    26.....Singed Soarwood
    26.....Skull fragment, 116 siberys dragonshards
    26.....Small Eberron Dragonshard
    26.....String of Prayer Beads
    26.....Tear of Vulkoor
    27.....Blade of the Dark Six
    27.....Blade of the Dark Six
    27.....Cryptmoss Worm, 3 astral shards
    27.....mystical formula
    27.....Runic Parchment
    27.....Sweet Whitecap
    27.....Vial of Pure Water, 44 Siberys Dragonshard Fragments
    28.....Amber Vial
    28.....Amber Vial, 3 astral shards
    28.....sweet whitecap
    29.....Blade of the Dark Six
    29.....Chipped Bone Talisman
    29.....Cryptmoss, 2 astral shards
    29.....Glittering Dust
    29.....Glittering Dust, 46 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
    29.....intact spore pod
    29.....String of Prayer Beads
    29.....sweet whitecap
    29.....Sweet Whitecap, 3 Astral Shards
    30.....academic treatise
    30.....Blade of the Dark Six
    30.....Ivory Scorpion Icon
    30.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
    30.....Ruddy Fungus
    30.....string of prayer beads
    30.....sweet whitecap
    31.....Amber Vial, 46 Siberys Dragonshard Fragments
    31.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
    31.....Glittering Dust
    31.....Phoenix Tavern Purchase Order
    31.....Research Diary
    31.....Small Wooden Idol
    31.....Swaying Mushroom Spore
    31.....Withered Cryptmoss
    32.....Amber Vial
    32.....mystical formula
    33.....Academic Treatise
    33.....Amber vial, 41 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
    33.....chipped bone talisman
    33.....Sweet Whitecap
    33.....Sweet Whitecap
    33.....Sweet Whitecap, 3 Astral Shards
    34.....academic treatise
    34.....academic treatise
    34.....Blessed Candle
    34.....Duskbrood Trumpeter
    34.....Fragrant Drowshood
    34.....mystical formula
    34.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
    34.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster
    34.....Tome: History of Houses
    34.....Wavecrasher Cargo Manifest
    34.....withered cryptmoss
    35.....Blessed Candle, 2 Astral Shards
    35.....Cryptmoss Worm
    35.....Intact Fingerbone
    35.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
    35.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
    35.....Ruddy Fungus
    35.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster, 3 Astral Shards
    35.....Sweet Whitecap, 2 Astral Shards
    36.....Amber Vial
    36.....string of prayer beads
    37.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
    37.....Bruised Spore Pod
    37.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet
    37.....Lush Cryptmoss
    37.....Runic Parchment, 3 Astral Shards
    37.....small wooden idol
    37.....String of Prayer Beads
    37.....Sweet Whitecap
    38.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
    38.....Cryptmoss, 2 astral shards
    38.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
    38.....Page Torn Research Notebook, 2 Astral Shard
    39.....Amber Vial
    39.....Amulet of the Lost Empire
    39.....chipped bone talisman
    39.....String of Prayer Beads
    39.....String of Prayer Beads
    39.....Vial of Contagion, 2 astral shards
    40.....silver bowl, 3 astral shards
    41.....Blade of the Dark Six
    41.....Ceramic Bowl
    41.....chipped bone talisman
    41.....Ivory Scorpion Icon
    41.....Mystic Formula
    41.....Three Astral Shards
    42.....Bruised Spore Pod
    42.....One Sweet Whitecap
    42.....Powdered Blood, 110 Khyber Dragonshard Fragments
    42.....Sweet Whitecap
    42.....Vial of Pure Water
    42.....Withered Cryptmoss
    43.....Amber Vial
    43.....Sour Darkcap
    43.....Swaying Mushroom Cluster
    43.....Tear of Vulkoor
    44.....Mystical Formula
    45.....blessed candle
    45.....Khyber Prayer Pamphlet, 2 astral shards
    45.....One Sweet Whitecap
    45.....Page Torn from a Research Notebook
    45.....Sour Darkcap


    46-65 Crafting

    119 rolls / 560 rolls = 21.25%. A little higher tha the 20% expected, but close enough.

    Some weird stuff. You only can get 3, 4, or 5 greater essences of any type. If you get 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 essences they are lesser

    119 Occurences

    51 rolls were greater essences
    68 rolls were lesser essences

    46.....4 Greater Evil Essences
    46.....5 Greater Mind Essences
    46.....6 Lesser Air Essences
    46.....7 Lesser Evil Essences
    46.....7 Lesser Law Essences
    46.....9 Lesser Evil Essences
    47.....10 Lesser Air Essences
    47.....10 lesser chaos essences
    47.....10 Lesser Mind Essences
    47.....4 Greater Air Essences
    47.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
    47.....4 Greater Body Essences
    47.....4 greater evil essences
    47.....4 Greater Fire Essences
    47.....4 Greater Good Essences
    47.....5 greater divine essences
    47.....5 Greater Law Essences
    47.....6 lesser air essences
    47.....6 Lesser Body Essences
    48.....10 Lesser Chaos Essences
    48.....4 Greater Divine Essences
    48.....5 Greater Mind Essences
    49.....4 Greater Air Essences
    49.....4 Greater Good Essences
    49.....5 Greater Chaos Essence
    49.....5 greater divine essences
    49.....6 lesser earth essences
    50.....4 Greater Law Essences
    50.....8 Lesser Evil Essences
    50.....9 lesser evil essences
    51.....3 greater arcane essences
    51.....5 Greater Good Essences
    51.....7 Lesser Law Essences
    52.....4 greater evil essences
    52.....5 Greater Air Essences
    52.....5 Greater Earth Essences
    52.....6 Lesser Water Essences
    52.....8 Lesser Fire Essences
    52.....9 Lesser Fire Essences
    52.....9 Lesser Water Essences
    53.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
    53.....5 Greater Earth Essences
    53.....5 Greater Water Essences
    53.....7 lesser fire essence
    53.....9 lesser law essences
    54.....5 Greater Arcane Essecnes
    54.....7 lesser water essences
    54.....8 Lesser Divine Essences
    54.....9 Lesser Arcane Essences
    54.....9 Lesser Law Essences
    55.....5 Greater Air Essences
    55.....5 Greater Water Essences
    55.....6 lesser evil essences
    55.....7 Lesser Body Essences
    55.....7 lesser divine essences
    56.....10 Lesser Fire Essences
    56.....4 Greater Air essences
    56.....4 greater earth essences
    56.....5 Greater Good Essences
    56.....6 lesser air essences
    56.....6 lesser Good Essences
    56.....7 Lesser Body Essences
    56.....7 Lesser Body Essences
    56.....8 Lesser Divine Essences
    56.....8 Lesser Mind Essences
    56.....9 lesser law essences
    57.....10 Lesser Mind Essences
    57.....4 Greater Air essences
    57.....5 Greater Earth Essences
    57.....5 Greater Fire Essences
    57.....5 Greater Fire Essences
    57.....5 Greater Water Essences
    57.....6 lesser evil essences
    57.....6 Lesser Fire Essences
    58.....4 Greater Divine Essences
    58.....4 greater water essences
    58.....5 Greater Chaos Essences
    58.....5 greater evil essences
    58.....6 lesser earth essences
    59.....10 Lesser Body Essences
    59.....4 greater water essences
    59.....6 Lesser Air Essences
    59.....8 Lesser Chaos Essences
    59.....9 Lesser Water Essences
    60.....10 Lesser Evil Essences
    60.....4 Greater Body Essences
    60.....5 Greater Evil Essences
    60.....6 lsser fire essences
    60.....7 lesser chaos Essences
    60.....8 Lesser Evil Essences
    60.....8 Lesser Law Essences
    60.....9 lesser law essences
    61.....10 Lesser Water Essences
    61.....4 greater evil essences
    61.....4 Greater Fire Essences
    61.....5 Greater Water Essences
    61.....9 Lesser Body Essences
    61.....9 lesser law essences
    61.....9 Lesser Water Essences
    62.....6 lesser evil essences
    62.....7 Lesser Body Essences
    62.....7 lesser divine essences
    62.....7 lesser fire essence
    62.....7 Lesser Water Essences
    62.....8 Lesser Arcane Essences
    62.....8 Lesser Body Essences
    63.....10 lesser Air Essences
    63.....10 Lesser Body Essences
    63.....6 lesser air essences
    63.....9 Lesser Earth Essences
    63.....9 lesser law essences
    64.....4 Greater Arcane Essences
    64.....4 greater evil essences
    65.....10 Lesser Water Essences
    65.....4 greater evil essences
    65.....4 Greater Fire Essences
    65.....4 Greater Good Essences
    65.....6 lesser earth essences
    65.....6 Lesser Water Essences


    66-80 Consumables

    67 rolls / 560 rolls = 11.96%. Much lower than the 15% expected, makes you go hmmmmmmmmm......


    67 Occurrences

    There are only FIVE consumable types.

    Haste Potions either level 10 or level 15
    Heroism Potions level 10 only
    Concentrated Mnemonic Elixirs
    Mnemonic Elixirs
    Supreme Ability Elixirs


    66.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    66.....3 Potions of Haste (10)
    66.....3 Potions of Heroism (10)
    66.....4 Potions of Heroism (10)
    66.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
    67.....2 lasting elixirs of Superior Ability
    67.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    67.....3 Potions of Haste (10)
    67.....Concentrated Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
    68.....2 Concetrated Elxirs of Lesser Mnemonic
    68.....2 potions of Haste (10)
    68.....3 Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    68.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
    68.....Concentatred Elixir of Lesser Mnemonic
    69.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    69.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
    70.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Lesser Mnemonics
    70.....3 potions heroism (10)
    70.....3 potions of Heroism (10)
    70.....4 potions of heroism (10)
    71.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    71.....3 potions heroism (10)
    71.....4 potions of haste
    71.....Concentrated Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
    72.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    72.....3 Concentrated Elixir of Minor Mnemonic
    72.....3 potions of Heroism (10)
    72.....3 Potions of Herosim (15)
    72.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
    72.....Potion of Haste (15)
    73.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Lesser Mnemonics
    73.....2 Minor Mnemonic Elixirs
    73.....2 Potions of Heroism
    73.....3 Concentrated Elixir of Minor Mnemonic
    73.....4 potions of haste (10)
    73.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
    73.....4 potions of heroism (10)
    73.....Concentrated Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
    73.....potion of Heroism (15)
    74.....2 Minor Mnemonic Elixirs
    74.....2 potions of Haste (10)
    74.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
    75.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    75.....4 Potions of Haste (10)
    76.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    76.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Mnemonic
    76.....2 potions of Haste (10)
    76.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    76.....4 potions heroism (10)
    76.....4 potions of heroism (10)
    76.....Concentrated Elixir of Major Mnemonic Enhancement
    77.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
    77.....Concentrated Elixir of Major Mnemonic Enhancement
    78.....2 potions of Haste (10)
    78.....2 potions of Haste (10)
    78.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    78.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic
    78.....Conc. Major Mnemonic Elixir
    78.....Concentrated Elixir of Superior Mnemonic Enhancement
    78.....Elixir of Greater Mnemonic
    79.....2 Elixirs of Supreme Ability
    79.....3 Concentrated Minor Mnemonic
    79.....3 Potions of haste, 15th level
    80.....2 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonics
    80.....2 Potions of Heroism (10)
    80.....3 Concentrated Elixirs of Mnemonic
    80.....4 Concentrated Elixirs of Minor Mnemonic


    81-90 Boosts

    55 rolls / 560 rolls = 9.82%. A little lower than the 10% expected, but close enough.


    55 Occurrences

    There are nine different types of rewards.

    Minor, Lesser Crafting Elixirs
    Minor, Lesser XP Elixirs
    Minor, Lesser Slayer Count Boosts
    Minor, Lesser Guild Renown Boosts
    Small Jewels of Fortune

    81.....2 lesser crafting exp elixirs
    81.....2 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs
    81.....Lesser Crafting XP, 10%, 15 min
    81.....Minor XP Elixir
    81.....Small Jewel of Fortune
    81.....Small Jewel of Fortune
    82.....Lesser Guild renown
    82.....Minor Exp Elixir
    82.....minor exp elixir
    82.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    82.....small jewel of fortune
    82.....small jewel of fortune
    83.....3 Lesser Crafting XP Elixirs
    83.....lesser XP elixir
    83.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    83.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    83.....Minor XP Elixir, 5%, 2 hours
    83.....small jewel of fortune
    84.....2 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs, 5%, 15 minutes
    84.....3 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs, 5%, 15 minutes
    84.....4 Minor Crafting XP Elixirs
    84.....Lesser XP Elixir
    84.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    84.....small jewel of fortune
    84.....small jewel of fortune
    85.....Lesser Guild Renown
    85.....Lesser Slayer Count Boost
    85.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    85.....small jewel of fortune
    86.....3 Minor Crafting Xp Elixirs, 15 minutes, 5%
    86.....Lesser XP Elixir
    86.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    86.....minor XP Elixir
    87.....Lesser Crafting Exp Elixir
    87.....Lesser XP Elixir, 10% , 3 hours
    87.....small jewel of fortune
    87.....small jewel of fortune
    88.....2 lesser crafting exp elixirs
    88.....Lesser XP Elixir
    88.....minor guild renown elixir
    88.....minor guild renown elixir
    88.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    88.....Minor Slayer Count Boost
    88.....minor XP Elixir
    89.....3 Lesser Crafting XP Elixirs
    89.....Lesser Guild Renown
    89.....Lesser Slayer Boost
    89.....Minor XP Elixir
    89.....small jewel of fortune
    90.....Lesser Guild Renown
    90.....Minor Experince Elixir
    90.....minor guild renown elixir
    90.....Minor XP Elixir
    90.....Small Jewel of Fortune
    90.....small jewel of fortune


    91-95 Improved Boosts

    21 occurrence / 560 rolls = 3.75% much less than the 5% expected. Is my guild just having bad luck?

    So far, nine different types. My guess, if there is lesser, medium, and greater fpr XP, there is lesser, medium and greater for Crafting and Slaying. Please note, there is NO GUILD BOOST for this range. The data set is extremely small though, with 21 data items.


    Medium, Greater Slayer Boosts
    Greater, Major Crafting XP Elixir
    Lesser, Medium, Greater XP elixir
    Medium Jewel of Fortune
    Large Jewel of Fortune

    91.....Greater Slayer Boost
    91.....Greater Crafting EXP Elixir
    91.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir, 20%, 15 Minutes
    91.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
    91.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
    92.....Greater Crafting Elixir
    92.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir
    92.....Large Jewel of Fortune
    92.....medium XP Elixir
    93.....Large Jewel of Fortune
    93.....Lesser XP Elixir
    93.....Medium Slayer Boost Count
    94.....Greater Crafting XP Elixir, 20%, 15 Minutes
    95.....Greater Crafting Experience
    95.....Greater XP Elixir 20% 3 hours
    95.....Lesser XP Elixir
    95.....Lesser XP Elixir
    95.....Major Crafting XP Elixir
    95.....Medium Jewel of Fortune
    95.....Medium Slayer Boost Count
    95.....Medium Slayer Count Boost


    96-99 Copper Jackpot



    28 occurrence / 560 rolls = 5.00% much higher than the 4% expected. OK, I guess this makes up for the 91-95 rolls.

    So far, seven different types.

    15 astral Shards
    Siberys Spirit Cake
    Major Xp Elixir
    Unbound +1 tomes
    Raid timer Bypass Hourglasses
    Rest Statue of Eladrin
    Jewelers Toolkit

    I can tell you that I am the one that rolled the Jewelers Tool Kit on Argonesson and I am the one that rolled all three of the Raid Timer Bypasses on Sarlona.

    of those items the Siberys Spirit Cake and the Rest Statue I do not consider JACKPOT!!! +1 tomes are close to not being good, but if you have a low character on a server getting a FREE +1 tome is nice, especially, if you can score a +1 to +2 upgrade later on.

    96.....15 Astral Shards
    96.....15 Astral Shards
    96.....Major XP Elixir
    96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    96.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    96.....TOME +1 Constitution, unbound
    97.....Major XP Elixir, 20%, 6 hours
    97.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
    97.....Rest Statue of Eladrin
    97.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    97.....TOME +1 DEX, Unbound
    98.....Jeweler's Tool Kit
    98.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
    98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    98.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    98.....TOME +1 Charisma
    98.....TOME +1 Int, unbound
    99.....15 astral shards
    99.....15 astral shards
    99.....15 astral shards
    99.....15 Astral Shards
    99.....major XP elixir
    99.....Major XP Elixir, 20%, 6 hours
    99.....Raid Timer Bypass Hourglass
    99.....Siberys Spirit Cake
    99.....TOME +1 Constitution, unbound


    100 Silver Jackpot

    7 occurrences / 560 rolls = 1.25% Higher than the 1% expected.

    Pretty easy to tell what the rewards are.


    100.....Excellent XP Elixir, 30%, 3 hours
    100.....Excellent XP Elixir, 30%, 3 hours
    100.....Superior Experience Elixir, 30%, 6 hours
    100.....TOME Upgrade +1 WIS to +2 WIS
    100.....TOME Upgrade +1 CHA to +2 CHA
    100.....TOME Upgrade +1 STR to +2 STR
    100.....TOME Upgrade +1 STR to +2 STR

    As an added bonus, what others have received when rolled, but these players are NOT in my guild. These rolls of 100 are not included in my 560 total as I would need all of their rolls to have reliable numbers.

    100.....1 Excellent Experience Elixir, 30% 3 hours
    100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
    100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
    100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
    100.....2 Raid Bypass Timers
    100.....2 Superior XP Elixirs
    100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
    100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
    100.....3 Siberys Spirit Cakes
    100.....35 astral shards
    100.....35 astral shards
    100.....35 astral shards
    100.....35 astral shards
    100.....50 Astral Shards
    100.....Lesser Heart of Wood
    100.....Superior Experience Elixir
    100.....Superior Experience Elixir
    100.....Superior Experience Elixir, 30%, 6 hours
    100.....Upgrade CHA +1 to +2
    100.....Upgrade CON +2 to +3
    100.....Upgrade STR +1 to +2
    100.....Upgrade WIS +2 to +3


    I also want to point out that not one of us has been able to duplicate the reported bug of having shards disappear or once we roll having the number remain at zero.
    Last edited by moomooprincess; 04-14-2013 at 04:05 PM.
    Recipemaker Guild: Top Chef School of Recipes

    Event Statistics: Risia, Festivult, Midwinter, Daily Dice, Mimic Hunt

  2. #2
    Community Member Wanesa's Avatar
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    WOW! Great job!
    Quote Originally Posted by moomooprincess View Post
    I also want to point out that not one of us has been able to duplicate the reported bug of having shards disappear or once we roll having the number remain at zero.
    It can really happen, i saw it with my own eyes. Probably it happens in less then 1 of 560 cases

    Thelanis: Shewind the Airbender (Sorc20/Epic5 -> Bard20/Epic8 -> Rog20/Epic8/Epic2 -> Harper_FvS20/Epic4 -> Art20/Epic8/Epic8 -> Rng20/Epic10 -> Drd6),
    Azaxe (Rog18/Wiz2 -> Sorc20/Epic8/Epic10->Sorc(EK)17)

  3. #3
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    i've not been able to replicate the bug either. but then, it's just me and my not-every-day rolls.

    for a chi square test on the data to be reliable, we'd need n x 10 rolls, which in this case would be 1000 (since the die supposedly has 100 sides). and we'd need that amount mostly because the last entry is exactly 100, only.

    that said, this is half that data, which is wonderful. thank you for gathering even that much. worst part of testing a pseudo rng is gathering the data, especially when you don't have access to the rng itself.

    if anyone's interested, i'll post the chi square test later. if not, fine. it's ugly math, and a table lookup. y'all should be able to find it on the net. it's the standard test for pseudo random number generators, and real ones too (you know, those strange shaped plastic things we used to play dnd with?). btw, vegas uses it too, except on those plastic things, it's actually easier to use a vice on those.

    oo, look what i found. http://graphpad.com/quickcalcs/chisquared1.cfm gonna try it with your data.

  4. #4
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    that was fun. didn't do the "one line for each number possible" table, the website is kinda clugy when it comes to tables with more than 20 rows. but:

    Chi squared equals 8.119 with 7 degrees of freedom.
    The two-tailed P value equals 0.3222
    By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be not statistically significant.

    with our a. incomplete data and b. not doing every different result as a row, it looks ok. test'd be better with the a and b handled, but it's probably around 10% error or so as is (yeah, i'm guessing on that, but hey... that math is UGLY!). cool.

  5. #5
    Community Member Kinerd's Avatar
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    Default

    Very good work on data collection, +1.

    I would like to offer a recommendation on statistics. There is a quantitative, objective, and (crucially) brief way to determine "close enough", and it goes like this:

    variance due to random noise is defined as (1 - rate) * rate * trials
    standard deviation is defined as square root(variance)
    within 2 standard deviations is close enough (95% of trials will fall in that band, 1 in 20 will not)
    within 3 standard deviations is being very serious (99.7% of trials will fall in that band, 1 in 300+ will not)
    empirical results are therefore usually reported (by nerds) as "observed value plus or minus value of 2 SDs", or of the form "25% ± 6%"
    (note how this is dramatically easier to compute than chi squared or other statistical tests, just don't apply it to jelly beans)

    We have:

    150 of 560 (astral 21 of 150), should be 25%
    113 of 560 (astral 14 of 113), should be 20%
    119 of 560, should be 20%
    67 of 560, should be 15%
    55 of 560, should be 10%
    21 of 560, should be 5%
    28 of 560, should be 4%
    7 of 560, should be 1%

    If we are bossy and insist on ±s, our results are reported as:

    26.8% ± 3.7% (14.0% ± 5.7%)
    20.2% ± 3.4% (12.4% ± 6.2%)
    21.3% ± 3.5%
    12.0% ± 2.7% [!]
    9.8% ± 2.5%
    3.8% ± 1.6%
    5.0% ± 1.8%
    1.3% ± 0.9%

    All the empirically observed values fall within 2 standard deviations of (and are therefore statistically indistinguishable from) the predicted values except for category 4, which falls between 2 and 3. As the above xkcd reference indicates, this methodology does not (ever) provide incontrovertible evidence, and it is not terribly surprising to have one of eight fall outside of a one in twenty. The answer is always more data.

    Also worth pointing out is that the astral shard chances for categories 1 and 2 could each fit 15% or 10%.

  6. #6
    Community Member KongColeus's Avatar
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    Default Close Enough

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinerd View Post
    Very good work on data collection, +1.

    I would like to offer a recommendation on statistics. There is a quantitative, objective, and (crucially) brief way to determine "close enough", and it goes like this:


    ...
    For me, using the two words CLOSE ENOUGH was much briefer than what you said.

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