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  1. #1
    Community Member maddmatt70's Avatar
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    Default Provide evidence of a correlation between the 2049 instance and lag or shut up

    I lead 20-30 raids a week. The primary raids that I currently lead are Fall of Truth and Caught in the Web. I am annoyed due to constantly being asked to recall out in order to enter a new instance when the raid party enters the raid and the instance is 2049i. I refuse to recall out and re-enter the quest and have completed tons of raids in 2049 as well as the other instances. I have experienced lag in 2049 as well as the other instances. There is no greater possibility for lag in 2049 vs. the other instances that I have seen.

    Who comes up with these myths and superstitious nonsense? Khyber raiders are an incredibly superstitious lot. I have not seen a single shred of evidence, analysis, or rationale as to why 2049 could have more lag. We need to call in the DDO myth busters. Developers is there any logic and rational or anything at all for this? Players provide your evidence or logic because you have none that I have seen.

    Let's all carry a lucky rabbit's foot, not cross under a ladder, knock on wood, break a mirror, cross our fingers, keep our umbrellas outside, be mindful of Friday the 13th, and not do quests in instance 2049 because the world just might end. I have my end of the world bunker ready to go how about you people?
    Last edited by maddmatt70; 04-08-2013 at 12:52 PM.
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  2. #2
    Community Member gphysalis's Avatar
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    You do know why players on the forums single out 2049 and 2050 right?

    Because crafting halls.
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  3. #3
    2016 DDO Players Council Qhualor's Avatar
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    I have experienced lag in all instances myself, but the really bad lag spikes seem to occur more often in i2049 and i2050. Lately i have been trying to connect the bad lag spikes in those instances when the crafting halls appear to be busy. Kinda hard to be in 2 places at once though.
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  4. #4
    Hero Gkar's Avatar
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    Confirmation bias.

    They notice when their theory gets support, they don't notice when it is not supported.

  5. #5
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    I have seen lag in 49,50,51, etc. I have also had flawless runs in all those instances. I've seen completions on the last 5 FoT runs I have done. All in 49. And that was peak hours on Saturday night.

    Oddly, the first week or two that FoT was out, no one was checking instances. Then, suddenly, it became practically mandatory.
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  6. #6
    Community Member maddmatt70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gkar View Post
    Confirmation bias.

    They notice when their theory gets support, they don't notice when it is not supported.
    Precisely, the data analysis is terrible and really is not credible. The engineering logic is also totally nonexistant. All superstitions start with one idiot spreading something and that is what we have here. Amazingly this has spread a lot on Khyber which leads to a less then flattering picture of Khyber Raiders. No wonder some of the things that Turbine is trying to do to make money seem so outlandish well to these sorts of people playing on Khyber Turbine's money making moves make a lot more sense.
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  7. #7
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    The i2049 thing isn't the result of one idiot ranting.


    When debilitating lag hits, /loc indicates i2049, 2050, and 2051 more often than i83 or others.

    Most people don't check their instance until there's a problem.


    What sort of proof would satisfy you?

    If every player were to fraps every quest and raid, note the instance at the beginning, and then tag the video as "lagged" or "not lagged", and submitted summary data to a publicly view-able forum with a link to the video, would that satisfy you?

    Would you audit the data?

  8. #8
    Community Member dynahawk's Avatar
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    You are right, without working for turbine we can not prove anything. I notice two types of lag, game stopping lag which can happen anywhere and what I call stutter lag(1/2 sec to second jumps).

    When I get stutter lag I check the instance number I am in.
    7/10 times it is instance 2049
    2/10 times it is instance 2050
    1/10 times it is another instance, quite a few of those are 2051

    Granted there are plenty of times where those instances run fine and I am unaware, but don't tell me there is nothing wrong with those instances. I won't believe it.

  9. #9
    Hero Phoenix-daBard's Avatar
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    Before U17 and billing systems change over about 40% of my lag was in 2049/2050. Since then it is spread out among other instances and 2049/2050 now only seem to be 10% of my lag experience.

    This analysis is not rigorous and is based on me checking the /loc when I experienced lag and also whenever I thought about it. I also do not quit an instance because of lag and normally complete in spite of it.

    I more often find myself in 2049/2050 than not on the lag free checks as well.
    Last edited by Phoenix-daBard; 04-08-2013 at 02:20 PM.

  10. #10
    Hero Gkar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dynahawk View Post
    You are right, without working for turbine we can not prove anything. I notice two types of lag, game stopping lag which can happen anywhere and what I call stutter lag(1/2 sec to second jumps).

    When I get stutter lag I check the instance number I am in.
    7/10 times it is instance 2049
    2/10 times it is instance 2050
    1/10 times it is another instance, quite a few of those are 2051

    Granted there are plenty of times where those instances run fine and I am unaware, but don't tell me there is nothing wrong with those instances. I won't believe it.
    Now tell me if those three instances contain 95% of all activity because they are some supercluster and all the rest are just small relief or special purpose clusters.

    You don't know that do you? That type of explaination alone would make your stats make perfect sense without indicating a problem.

    To know if there is a problem you would have to log every quest in every instances until you got a good sample size and then do a bit of regression to find out if there is a corrolation between some instances having a higher rate of problems as a percentage of total activity on those instances.

    For example, if i2049 had 70% of the problem, but 75% of the activity, its a good instance. On the other hand if it has 70% of the problem but only 20% of the activity, then yes indeed there may be a problem.

    Of course you would also have to cross reference to specific quests, because for all we know raid/quest XX may itself include a lag problem but it might be for some network arcitecture reason given a preference to populate i2049. That might mean that even if i2049 looked to be a problem it wasn't, it was actually quest XXX which usually ran in i2049 that was the issue. (This is basically the theory of those who think the crafting instances are the issue)

    Right now all we have is a few people saying that they think that it is worse without any substantiation, and at the same time the folks at Turbine claim that it is no worse, and although they didn't share, they would at least have ways to measure such things.

    I'm not saying there is or isn't a problem, but until there is some evidence, its just urban legend.
    Last edited by Gkar; 04-08-2013 at 02:22 PM.

  11. #11
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    I was running and ran in raids and only heard about when everyone kept asking, "what raid instance are we in?", before then I had no idea about the instance. I have no clue if there is any real evidence or not, I just do it to keep the masses happy.

  12. #12
    Community Member Bilger's Avatar
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    What I have heard and like you said is just rumor or from certain people who believe this. (seems all big lag outs have been in those instances) Is that is the main crafting instances so when crafting is busy then it hurts everyone else stuck in those instances.

    Can it be proven, possibly.

    To do that would take a lot of videos and tons of data gathering that anyone who is gamer will not put there time out to do.

    ATM it seems there is a correlation between them, but unprovable.
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  13. #13
    Hero LOOON375's Avatar
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    hahaha I don't even know how to see what instance Im in.

    Someone care to share how I would check?
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  14. #14
    The Hatchery Enoach's Avatar
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    I think the main issue here is that without a complete understanding of how DDO shares the Instances among different activities, or how Instances are assigned we can only speculate that there is an issue with an instance(s).

    I say this because the issue might actually be with the Marshaling of the instances and not with the instance itself. The i2049-51 instances might be given more than they are suppose to based on some criteria set for Marshaling. While other instances may not suffer this same issue.

    The other problem is we don't have a controlled tests established only anecdotal evidence from people who again only note the instance when they get lag, or work to avoid being in a specific instance by resetting the quest until they get the instance that is not in the i2049-51 series.

    Don't forget the other issue of Time Frame - Peak vs. Off Peak. This could again be an issue with how quest instances are marshaled. This factor could also explain why i2049-51 doesn't always have lag.

    One way to prove if i2049-51 are also reserved for crafting is to enter the Crafting Area and /loc each time keeping a record. If you just once get any other instance than i2049-51 you have proven this to be false, however, if after 100+ that is all you are seeing than you may find an actual correlation.

    If i2049-51 are part of the crafting instances and it is possible for that to cause lag in the game than it would be wise to restrict when those instances are used. That would be better fixed programmatically and would probably earn the devs a lot of cheers.

    It is however, my hope that Turbine has setup monitors on the system to report issues at the server side that could cause Lag related issues so that we wont keep seeing issues like we saw on Khyber Friday and Saturday where House C, House K and Three Barrel Cove just took a dive where the only way out was to Alt+F4 and log onto a new character.

  15. #15
    The Hatchery whomhead's Avatar
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    Absence of proof is not a proof absence.

  16. #16
    Founder & Hero Vordax's Avatar
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    A dev, I think Maj, said that the instance number is not what we think it is. Until turbine confirms that it reduces lag chance I think we are just wasting time.

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  17. #17
    Scholar Of Adventure & Hero Missing_Minds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LOOON375 View Post
    hahaha I don't even know how to see what instance Im in.

    Someone care to share how I would check?
    /loc

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vordax View Post
    A dev, I think Maj, said that the instance number is not what we think it is. Until turbine confirms that it reduces lag chance I think we are just wasting time.
    It was Maj a little over a year ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by MajMalphunktion View Post
    Thanks for investigating, but this only points to a place it is happening not the problem.
    We already collect this data, and when you see the bigger picture, it does not narrow down to just the crafting hall, or instance 2030 or whatnot. It can happen everywhere.
    There is a few optimizations in the patch (not in this build tho...next week's...sorry) that should help everyone...especially large groups, but there is at least half a dozen other things we want to change/fix/optimize in the next couple of months.

    there are two huge changes that I'll talk about right after patch 1 that we are doing. There are some big under the covers changes that are long overdue. Will this help the instance lag? To be honest, we are not sure yet, there is still more testing to be done.

  19. #19
    Community Member Alternative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gphysalis View Post
    Because crafting halls.
    That theory made a little sense when cannith crafting was actually new and a lot of people were leveling it. And now that there's hardly anybody in it, what would cause the lag exactly? The absence of reason?

  20. #20
    Community Member Vengeance777's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maddmatt70 View Post
    I lead 20-30 raids a week. The primary raids that I currently lead are Fall of Truth and Caught in the Web. I am annoyed due to constantly being asked to recall out in order to enter a new instance when the raid party enters the raid and the instance is 2049i. I refuse to recall out and re-enter the quest and have completed tons of raids in 2049 as well as the other instances. I have experienced lag in 2049 as well as the other instances. There is no greater possibility for lag in 2049 vs. the other instances that I have seen.

    Who comes up with these myths and superstitious nonsense? Khyber raiders are an incredibly superstitious lot. I have not seen a single shred of evidence, analysis, or rationale as to why 2049 could have more lag. We need to call in the DDO myth busters. Developers is there any logic and rational or anything at all for this? Players provide your evidence or logic because you have none that I have seen.
    I'll take the blame. I started a lag tracking chat channel on Orien over a year ago where players reported /loc data when lag was found. Most of the time it was found in i2049 which happened to also be the Cannith Crafting hall and several taverns as well on Orien. So i2049 became synonymous with lag on Orien and apparently the myth spread to other servers.

    This was the original theory thread. The theory was proven wrong.
    http://forums.ddo.com/showthread.php?t=365315

    This is Vanshilar's detailed writeup on the hypothesis.

    http://forums.ddo.com/showpost.php?p...13&postcount=3

    Here was the Dev response on the theory.

    Quote Originally Posted by MajMalphunktion View Post
    Thanks for investigating, but this only points to a place it is happening not the problem.
    We already collect this data, and when you see the bigger picture, it does not narrow down to just the crafting hall, or instance 2030 or whatnot. It can happen everywhere.
    There is a few optimizations in the patch (not in this build tho...next week's...sorry) that should help everyone...especially large groups, but there is at least half a dozen other things we want to change/fix/optimize in the next couple of months.

    there are two huge changes that I'll talk about right after patch 1 that we are doing. There are some big under the covers changes that are long overdue. Will this help the instance lag? To be honest, we are not sure yet, there is still more testing to be done.
    And the Dev Findings as to the cause of the lag:

    Quote Originally Posted by MajMalphunktion View Post
    Probable fix incoming!

    As one of my testers put it, it is 'zombie physics from the future' causing all the pain. If I ever wanted to feel like Buckaroo Banzai, I guess it is now.

    Major Malphunktion and the Kobold Kavaliers vs Zombie physics from the Future!

    Anyway I'll explain more when I see the fix work.
    i2049 was ruled out as the cause over a year ago by MajorMal and after over a year of players reporting it on the Orien lag channel the lag was confirmed as being able to hit in any instance at any time. i2049 is a default instance of most inside raids so it is usually the instance players see in their /loc data in a laggy raid so its still the instance being blamed when its really Observer Bias. Lag can happen in any instance but the default indoor instance is i2049 so that's the instance most likely to appear when a player notices lag and types /loc.

    I agree the instance reset has gotten out of control. I find myself explaining to a pug a day that instance doesn't matter the lag can hit in any instance at any time but the outdated information still spreads as a fact even though it was a theory.

    Interestingly the most common instance for Lag on Orien is now i2051 and i2052 because pugs keep resetting to avoid i2049 LOL.

    I would regret posting the i2049 theory but it got us a dev answer on the actual cause of lag and the devs confirmed that the lag was real and not client side. So good came of the i2049 theory. Just wish the players who continue to spread the outdated i2049 theory would actually read the whole story with the actual cause and stop spreading the old theory. I guarantee in this thread alone several people will ignore this post in which the original poster of the i2049 theory debunks it and admits to being wrong and continue to say its i2049 lol.

    The official cause of the lag is zombie future physics being calculated ( My guess is this refers to mobs that spawn hostile, i.e. mobs that calculate player data then spawn in attacking players and already knowing player positions). This is probably why raids are the most common place lag is since those are the most common area where mobs spawn in attacking players instead of most quest mobs which are passive until approached or attacked. Most quest mobs have a 3-5 second AI delay from when player wnters the mobs area to when the attack is made, most raid mob that spawn in do not have this delay (my personal guess is they precalculate player data before spawn so we dont see the 3-5 sec delay). Anyway It appears the bug fix didn't completely wipe out zombie physics or it has come back.

    In short:

    Any instance can lag. i2049 is not the cause nor has it ever been. Devs confirmed Zombie physics from the Future is the cause of the unplayable lag.
    Last edited by Vengeance777; 04-10-2013 at 06:05 AM.
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