# Thread: Rolling 100 does not mean you won

1. ## Rolling 100 does not mean you won

Reaver, Head of Good Fortune drops - rolled for it, and YAY, a 100. Did I got it? Nope. But no drama in here - just some weird stuff (in means of probability):

We had another roll between two of us and I lost that one. Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?

2. 1 in 10,000

3. My first pair of tharnes goggles I and another guy rolled a 100 for them. I rolled a 99 on the roll off! Funny stuff.

4. Originally Posted by jwdaniels
1 in 10,000
For two rolls out of two, 1/10,000.
For two rolls out of 3, 3/10,000.
For two rolls in a row out of 3 rolls, 2/10,000. (This is the case in question)

It becomes much more likely as more people roll.

Cheers,
Kernal

5. Ouch!!! That's gotta hurt! hehehe

You should enter this in the screenshot of the week contest!!!!

6. eh u got way too good luck on loot skanner, but seems you found your match!

7. Originally Posted by Skani
Reaver, Head of Good Fortune drops - rolled for it, and YAY, a 100. Did I got it? Nope. But no drama in here - just some weird stuff (in means of probability):

We had another roll between two of us and I lost that one. Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?
Both rolls were clearly invalid anyway.

you were supposed to roll D101's

Edit: Oh, nvm, 101 was for the napkin....

8. There is drama here. Someone is rolling on a Treason!

9. Originally Posted by kernal42
For two rolls out of two, 1/10,000.
For two rolls out of 3, 3/10,000.
For two rolls in a row out of 3 rolls, 2/10,000. (This is the case in question)

It becomes much more likely as more people roll.

Cheers,
Kernal
No, his question was:

Originally Posted by Skani
what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?

10. Originally Posted by jwdaniels
No, his question was:
That might be the question he asked, but the question that he asked doesn't match the situation that occured.

That's why Kernal42 listed several different scenarios with the probability for each so that the OP could actually see the relevant information for him- or herself and decide on his or her own, which of those answers was the one that matched the question that he was actually trying to ask.

Calculations are easy to do, but figuring out when your formula/equation/statistic actually applies to a given situation is more siginificant and more challenging.

11. Originally Posted by Skani
Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?
about the same as someone voluntarily rolling on treason?

12. Originally Posted by jwdaniels
No, his question was:
Thats the 2 from 2 one he did .

The chance of someone roling a 100 given that someone else has already rolled a 100 is 1 in 100

13. ## Oh, is there a pedantic contest? My submission:

at least two rolls of 100 out of 3 rolls = 2.98/10,000
exactly two rolls of 100 out of 3 rolls = 2.97/10,000

And the chances of this exact scenario (100, 100, and 27) is 1 in a million

Beat THAT!

14. After you see them: 1.0

Now if you ask what is the probability that your next roll will be 100 and the very next person to roll after you will be 100. That is a different story! And incidently a different question is "what is "he probability of all the rolls next week that I will roll, that one of them will be a 100 and I still will not win?" But why a week? How long have you been playing this game? Lets say a year. We could ask "what is the probability that in the next year I will roll a 100 and still lose?" BTW all these probabilities are growing. Or we could ask "What is the probability that in the next I will see two people roll a 100 for the same loot?" You know I think its weird when two people roll a 1 too, so we might ask "what is the probability that I see two people roll a 1 or two people roll a 100 for the same loot in the next year?" And we could just keep going! "What is the probability that I will see two people roll the same number sometime in the next year, if the number that is the same can be anything?" (nearly 1.0 btw).

Their is a general intuition in probability and statistics: if you don't restrict the coincidence ahead of time things you think of as coincidence can almost certainly be found in the data. That is why you should ideally decide on how you are testing hypothesis before you view the data.

15. Was rolling for thanes once and rolled a 12 vs 4 other people and still won with the high roll so it can swing both ways. what are the odds 3 others will roll less than 12 also rolled for a shard in the shroud where I rolled a 2 and both the other guys rolled ones.

16. I lost a Chain Shirt of Crippling in that way back when Hound was brand new. (The item is garbage now, but back then DT and of course epic armors were not in-game so it was at least decent).

I then got one on that toon on their very next run.

17. saw a number of 100 rolls in the last few months...something I don't EVER remember seeing at all in the years previous...

perhaps the number generator has been altered in our favor? (don't tell anyone).

do 1d100, closest to 1 and see what happens..

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