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  1. #1
    Community Member Skani's Avatar
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    Default Rolling 100 does not mean you won

    Reaver, Head of Good Fortune drops - rolled for it, and YAY, a 100. Did I got it? Nope. But no drama in here - just some weird stuff (in means of probability):



    We had another roll between two of us and I lost that one. Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?
    MR. NOOB
    Skanher, Skani, Skaner, Skannar, Skanbot.

  2. #2
    Community Member jwdaniels's Avatar
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    Default

    1 in 10,000


    Proud officer of Crate and Barrel Smashing, LLC

  3. #3
    Community Member stainer's Avatar
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    My first pair of tharnes goggles I and another guy rolled a 100 for them. I rolled a 99 on the roll off! Funny stuff.

  4. #4
    Community Member kernal42's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwdaniels View Post
    1 in 10,000
    For two rolls out of two, 1/10,000.
    For two rolls out of 3, 3/10,000.
    For two rolls in a row out of 3 rolls, 2/10,000. (This is the case in question)

    It becomes much more likely as more people roll.

    Cheers,
    Kernal

  5. #5

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    Ouch!!! That's gotta hurt! hehehe

    You should enter this in the screenshot of the week contest!!!!

  6. #6
    Community Member Shade's Avatar
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    eh u got way too good luck on loot skanner, but seems you found your match!

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Skani View Post
    Reaver, Head of Good Fortune drops - rolled for it, and YAY, a 100. Did I got it? Nope. But no drama in here - just some weird stuff (in means of probability):



    We had another roll between two of us and I lost that one. Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?
    Both rolls were clearly invalid anyway.

    you were supposed to roll D101's

    Edit: Oh, nvm, 101 was for the napkin....
    °º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸,ø¤°º¤ø,¸ ¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸A R C H A N G E L S °º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸,ø¤°º¤ø,¸ ¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸
    Thelanis

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  8. #8
    Community Member voodoogroves's Avatar
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    There is drama here. Someone is rolling on a Treason!
    Ghallanda - now with fewer alts and more ghostbane

  9. #9
    Community Member jwdaniels's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kernal42 View Post
    For two rolls out of two, 1/10,000.
    For two rolls out of 3, 3/10,000.
    For two rolls in a row out of 3 rolls, 2/10,000. (This is the case in question)

    It becomes much more likely as more people roll.

    Cheers,
    Kernal
    No, his question was:

    Quote Originally Posted by Skani View Post
    what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?


    Proud officer of Crate and Barrel Smashing, LLC

  10. #10
    Community Member PopeJual's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwdaniels View Post
    No, his question was:
    That might be the question he asked, but the question that he asked doesn't match the situation that occured.

    That's why Kernal42 listed several different scenarios with the probability for each so that the OP could actually see the relevant information for him- or herself and decide on his or her own, which of those answers was the one that matched the question that he was actually trying to ask.

    Calculations are easy to do, but figuring out when your formula/equation/statistic actually applies to a given situation is more siginificant and more challenging.

  11. #11
    Community Member jkm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skani View Post
    Now does some math guy could tell me please - what is the chance for 2 100s in a row?
    about the same as someone voluntarily rolling on treason?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwdaniels View Post
    No, his question was:
    Thats the 2 from 2 one he did .

    The chance of someone roling a 100 given that someone else has already rolled a 100 is 1 in 100

  13. #13
    Community Member zed1's Avatar
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    Default Oh, is there a pedantic contest? My submission:

    at least two rolls of 100 out of 3 rolls = 2.98/10,000
    exactly two rolls of 100 out of 3 rolls = 2.97/10,000

    And the chances of this exact scenario (100, 100, and 27) is 1 in a million

    Beat THAT!
    Last edited by zed1; 02-07-2011 at 01:31 PM. Reason: Corrected in order to be extra-pedantic

  14. #14
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    After you see them: 1.0

    Now if you ask what is the probability that your next roll will be 100 and the very next person to roll after you will be 100. That is a different story! And incidently a different question is "what is "he probability of all the rolls next week that I will roll, that one of them will be a 100 and I still will not win?" But why a week? How long have you been playing this game? Lets say a year. We could ask "what is the probability that in the next year I will roll a 100 and still lose?" BTW all these probabilities are growing. Or we could ask "What is the probability that in the next I will see two people roll a 100 for the same loot?" You know I think its weird when two people roll a 1 too, so we might ask "what is the probability that I see two people roll a 1 or two people roll a 100 for the same loot in the next year?" And we could just keep going! "What is the probability that I will see two people roll the same number sometime in the next year, if the number that is the same can be anything?" (nearly 1.0 btw).


    Their is a general intuition in probability and statistics: if you don't restrict the coincidence ahead of time things you think of as coincidence can almost certainly be found in the data. That is why you should ideally decide on how you are testing hypothesis before you view the data.

  15. #15
    Founder & Hero Uska's Avatar
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    Was rolling for thanes once and rolled a 12 vs 4 other people and still won with the high roll so it can swing both ways. what are the odds 3 others will roll less than 12 also rolled for a shard in the shroud where I rolled a 2 and both the other guys rolled ones.

    The ANTI-Realms FANBOI NUKE THE REALMS ITS THE ONLY REAL WAY TO BE SURE

  16. #16
    The Hatchery sirgog's Avatar
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    I lost a Chain Shirt of Crippling in that way back when Hound was brand new. (The item is garbage now, but back then DT and of course epic armors were not in-game so it was at least decent).

    I then got one on that toon on their very next run.
    I don't have a zerging problem.

    I'm zerging. That's YOUR problem.

  17. #17
    Community Member MrWizard's Avatar
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    saw a number of 100 rolls in the last few months...something I don't EVER remember seeing at all in the years previous...

    perhaps the number generator has been altered in our favor? (don't tell anyone).


    do 1d100, closest to 1 and see what happens..
    Cannon fodder build The Stalwart Defender, Raid Tank
    Worst Shroud PUG EVER!!!!!! Epic Fail (started 1/13/10, necro'd 3/9/10, 4/20/10, raised dead 3/ 9/11, necro'd 4/9/11, 5/28/11, fame petition necro 8/5/11, necro'd 9/30/11, KIA 10/3/11, True reincarnated famed (by cleric Cordovan) 10/4/11,

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