1. ## heh

You'ld be better off putting some 1's in your choices.

The odds of rolling below 5 in this game is better than rolling 20. We all know this!

2. They put time and resources into THIS ?

for shame.

3. Originally Posted by tekn0mage
They put time and resources into THIS ?

for shame.
What, created two items and told people to PM someone on the forums? Oh, and type up a post? You're right...ALLLL those resources wasted...FOR SHAME TURBINE!

4. ## Should be fun

Originally Posted by tekn0mage
They put time and resources into THIS ?

for shame.
It should be fun. I'm sure I won't win though, judging by my chest pulls. Note that we don't have to online to win (a big plus; I hate the randomness of having to be online, in the right spot, at the right time).

Nice.

5. ## Which One

Lol, do you send a PM to...

+Sir Lawrence

==or==

Sir Lawrence

It seems kind of confusing to me...

6. Originally Posted by DKerrigan
What, created two items and told people to PM someone on the forums? Oh, and type up a post? You're right...ALLLL those resources wasted...FOR SHAME TURBINE!
Yes... devoting any time to anything other than getting this game out of the Intensive Care Unit is a waste, in my opinion.

7. Originally Posted by tekn0mage
Yes... devoting any time to anything other than getting this game out of the Intensive Care Unit is a waste, in my opinion.
Yep, going to have to go with Tekn0 on this one. odds of a winner = 1/160,000. I'd bet the under on number of valid entries = >1000.

Would a 1/10 chance of winning 1,000,000 gp be game breaking, NO. Would a lot of people win and be happy, YES.

8. Originally Posted by Sir Lawrence
Yes, guessing the same number (such as 1) more than once in your guess is valid. So, yes, you could guess 1, 1, 1, 1. SO you have to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya? (okay, maybe two questions.)
Will you be rolling the PC's saving throw and to hit dice or the NPC/monster to hit dice?

If he's rolling our saving throw dice then your winning numbers will be..... 2, 2, 1, 3.......
If he's rolling the NPC's to hit dice then your winning numbers will be..... 19, 20, 20, 17......
If he rolls the Rogue Open Locks/Disable Device dice........ none of the numbers will be double digits

9. Originally Posted by Rouge
If he rolls the Rogue Open Locks/Disable Device dice........ none of the numbers will be double digits
What? I thought a OL/DD roll was a D8

10. ## My question to Sir Lawrence:

are you using real d20's or using a Turbine created random numerator generator... that will affect my choice of numbers!

11. I pulled out my official DDO purple 20 sided dice that was passed out at PAX to roll up my 4 numbers .

12. Well, if I recall correctly, Sir Lawrence only rolls Natural 20s, so I think I know what my choices will be...

13. Odds that your first number matches one of the four of Sir's numbers (4/20)
and your 2nd number matches one of the three remaining (3/20) and 3rd number (2/20) and 4th number (1/20) = 4*3*2/20*20*20*20 = 24/160000 = 3/40000 = 0.000075 (A)

Odds that you will get at least three out of four = total chance of winning = 3/2000= 0.0015 (B)

Odds that you will get 3 but not 4 = B - A = 0.001425

Odds that you won't win = 1 - 3/2000 = 0.9985

14. We have to put something in the message for the PM to send, I just duplicate my title[subject line] post

15. Originally Posted by Rouge
Will you be rolling the PC's saving throw and to hit dice or the NPC/monster to hit dice?

If he's rolling our saving throw dice then your winning numbers will be..... 2, 2, 1, 3.......
If he's rolling the NPC's to hit dice then your winning numbers will be..... 19, 20, 20, 17......
If he rolls the Rogue Open Locks/Disable Device dice........ none of the numbers will be double digits
What, your OL/DD dice not rolling correctly? I routinely roll 10+, even some 20's on those things. :P Of course when your DD is in the low 40's, and OL is in the high 30's you don't need much help. :P

16. Originally Posted by Fahkrin
It should be fun. I'm sure I won't win though, judging by my chest pulls. Note that we don't have to online to win (a big plus; I hate the randomness of having to be online, in the right spot, at the right time).

Nice.
Agreed. I like that I don't have to be online to have a shot at winning. It's not always easy to be online on demand like that.

Good contest and good job with this one Turbine. This is the type of thing many of us players love!

17. ## Probability

The chance that your first number occurs in a set of four random numbers is not 4 in 20.

To calculate the odds that your first number is one of four randomly rolled numbers, you must calculate the odds that your number is not among them and take the inverse.

19/20 * 19/20 * 19/20 * 19/20 = 130321/160000 = 0.8145

There is an 81.45% chance that your first number is not among the four, and, inversely, a 18.55% chance that your first number is among the four.

If your first number matches, take it, and the matching number, and remove them. Now you have your second number, and three randomly rolled numbers.

19/20 * 19/20 * 19/20 = 6859/8000 = 0.8547

There is an 85.47% chance that your second number is not among the three, and, inversely, a 14.53% chance that your second number is among the three.

Perform the same equation two more times and you get

19/20 * 19/20 = 361/400 = .9025 or 90.25% and 9.75%
19/20 = .95 or 95% and 5%

If you multiply the chances of failure together, you get the odds that you will match NO numbers: 0.5987 or 59.87%

If you multiply the chances of success together, you get the odds that you will match ALL numbers: .000128973 or 0.01289%

Your odds of winning the grand prize are 1 in 7752.

18. i am not doing the math because i am lazy but i take it what your tying to say is that almost none of us will win?

am i right here?

19. ## I'm gonna win

Originally Posted by Kaboose
i am not doing the math because i am lazy but i take it what your tying to say is that almost none of us will win?

am i right here?
Well, I am going to win. I'm just laying out the odds so the people who don't understand how unlikely it was that I would not only win, but call it in advance.

Sorry you can't share in my elation. I'll be sure to post pictures of my new uberweapon.

20. Originally Posted by Coldin
Wow, guessing 4 numbers correctly to win a prize, and 3 just to get a consolation prize sounds pretty tough.

Couldn't people that get 1 or 2 numbers right get a, say, "+1 Somewhat Frightening Dagger of Citric Acid"?

ROFL! Very Monty Pythonish of ye.

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