# You can have less than 100% chance of UMDing a scroll - there is still a chance

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• 07-25-2013, 05:58 AM
MeliCat
You can have less than 100% chance of UMDing a scroll - there is still a chance
Just met another arti without fairly important scrolls (we won't go into which scrolls and why exactly and in which situation but anyway...). They had a UMD of 26 and the particular scroll that it would have been SERIOUSLY USEFUL for them to have used at that point of time has a UMD 36.

Now in my confusion I do remember that for a long time I remember thinking while learning this game "oh it's not 100%". It took a while for the penny to drop that that doesn't matter. That a 50% chance is 1 in 2 chances for the scroll to activate. A 75% chance is 3 in 4 chances, 12% is 1/8, and even 10% being 1 in 10 is still worth a shot and mostly likely worth it if you have a stack of 100 of the particular scroll.

The wiki says it semi clearly: "Scrolls can have less than a 100% chance of working even in normal use. If the character also has UMD trained, the better chance of success is used. " I'm one of those people who likes practical examples as per the paragraph above.

http://ddowiki.com/page/UMD
• 07-25-2013, 06:20 AM
FranOhmsford
What Lvl Arti?
What Scrolls exactly {assuming Raise Dead}?
Was Arti 1st Life by any chance?

Raise Dead and Heal Scrolls are NOT cheap!

I'd consider a 50% chance with DDO's Weighted Rolls on such things to be more like a 20% chance frankly!
75% {fails more than 50% of the time} Chance would be the minimum that as a first life character with little spare cash I'd be willing to chance scrolls EXCEPT in DIRE Emergencies!

If I have a stack of 100 Heal Scrolls and 100 Raise Dead Scrolls - That's quite a chunk of Plat I've spent - I want as many of them as possible to count!

If I am a Newbie and have 20 of each as I can't afford to buy 100 stacks I want EVERY SINGLE ONE to count!

For Vets and Multiple TRs - We {some of us that is} have our Named Items, Pots, Wands, Scrolls, Clickies etc. etc. etc.
We may have a character or two at Epic Levels Raiding every day or Farming Epic Quests and as such always have Plat available in abundance!

Newbies {and many Experienced Players who don't go in for Farming} DON'T!
• 07-25-2013, 06:35 AM
ReaperAlexEU
a stack of 10 raise dead scrolls is about 6K plat and perfect for being the hero when the party is faced with a wipe. sure you can expect more from a vet, but as a newbie i got a real kick from being able to do things like that. these days of course i maintain that stack of 100, but there is no reason you have to start that high, nor feel bad if a stack of 10 doesnt last the quest.

i'd not demand a newbie have such scrolls, but for some i'm sure the 6K plat is worth the price for the chance to save the day
• 07-25-2013, 05:04 PM
MeliCat
Quote:

Originally Posted by ReaperAlexEU
a stack of 10 raise dead scrolls is about 6K plat and perfect for being the hero when the party is faced with a wipe. sure you can expect more from a vet, but as a newbie i got a real kick from being able to do things like that. these days of course i maintain that stack of 100, but there is no reason you have to start that high, nor feel bad if a stack of 10 doesnt last the quest.

i'd not demand a newbie have such scrolls, but for some i'm sure the 6K plat is worth the price for the chance to save the day

Same re a newbie. I wouldn't demand anyone really. It was more I was just surprised - until I thought about it and wondered if they had had the same confusion that I had had. When I went to another server I got the same fun too :) And started out with as little resources. (Rezzing people on a fresh level 7 arti is way cool :D )

This was level 14 and the people concerned should have had plenty of resources available.

Anyway, the key point being, the wiki possibly doesn't express it clearly and I know it took me a while to latch on - just because it's not 100% doesn't mean it won't work - it just decreases your chances a little bit and you may have to use up a couple of scrolls.

(And lately I've been having the occasional fail on 110% which are not interrupted - yes the game can be buggy).

Be the hero of the party! Have those rezz scrolls on your hotbar! (And GH scrolls, and TS scrolls, and S2F when doing Eyes, and, etc, etc...) UMD is fun :D
• 07-25-2013, 05:40 PM
zwiebelring
Always an awesome feeling when an actually dangerous low level dungeon turns into roflstomp zerg after UMDing blur and stoneskin scrolls. Tear of Dakhaan comes to mind. UMD is no brainer.
• 07-26-2013, 05:48 AM
NaturalHazard
was it 26 fully buffed? cause if its not, gh can raise that by 4..........add in some other things.

I still carried raise scrolls and would use em even with a 75% chance is still worth the cost, especially if its a long way to carry their stone back to a shrine or something.

I didn't have that problem of misunderstanding the % thing I thought it was a % chance of success it would of been comical if I had been wrong and you *did* need 100% to get it to work.

I can imagine myself getting frustrated after trying 10 times at 75% and having it fail and wondering ***?
• 07-26-2013, 07:30 AM
Dimack
I'm sure he had plenty of room in his bag for soul stones since he wasn't carrying all those scrolls. Problem solved :)
• 07-26-2013, 09:04 AM
Chauncey1
I didn't start carrying those scrolls on my arti until a few months ago
Never needed them, until that ONE TIME that I did.
Now I keep 10 of each on me at all times.
• 07-26-2013, 09:13 AM
Darkrok
With DDO's dice rolls 50% is about a 90% chance of failing on 5 straight, at least when you really want them to go off. ;)

My current build I'm running through heroic levels never gets to heal scroll usability (I get 25% from my druid levels) and I think at 18 I can get up to about 75% on res scrolls. I'll always res someone if there isn't a shrine coming soon but honestly it's faster at the numbers I can reach most of the leveling process just to let them have a backpack ride for a bit. By the time I've gear-swapped, buffed, and tried to res them 5 times I'd probably be at the shrine already.

Good point in the thread though - you don't need 100% to make a scroll worthwhile. You just have to really need that scroll to bother though. :)
• 07-26-2013, 09:34 AM
Nibor
Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkrok
With DDO's dice rolls 50% is about a 90% chance of failing on 5 straight, at least when you really want them to go off. ;)

Since this "DDO dice rolls" thing has been mentioned twice in this thread already, a little perhaps non-intuitive math:

If you have a stack of 100 scrolls, and you have a 50% chance for them to succeed - when using up that stack, what are the chances you'll have 5 in a row fail?

Answer: Over 80%. And there's even a 46% chance you'll see TWO streaks of 5 (or more) failures in a row in that same stack.

Lesson - you should expect to see 5 failures in a row. Even 6 failures in a row during your stack of 100 is more likely than not. By the time you've used up 10 stacks, you should expect to have seen a streak of 9 failures in a row. Probability of winning/losing streaks is complicated, but bottom line - if the dice are fair, streaks will happen.
• 07-26-2013, 09:46 AM
SlowDM
Yes its really satisfying UMD resurrecting a character rather than raising them. Its amusing healing a divine player or hire. I think my arti vs hireling raise score is about 50/50 . But when i first started scrolls were out of my price range but i'd still buy half a dozen. When it was 75% i'd use them and a lot less % if in dire need.
• 07-26-2013, 10:52 AM
Kaytis
Quote:

Originally Posted by FranOhmsford
I'd consider a 50% chance with DDO's Weighted Rolls on such things to be more like a 20% chance frankly!

LOL. I was about to make the same point. I joke with my guildies that a 95% chance of success translates to a 100% chance of failure if you are desperate for the scroll to go off.
• 07-26-2013, 11:07 AM
FrancisP.Fancypants
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nibor
Since this "DDO dice rolls" thing has been mentioned twice in this thread already, a little perhaps non-intuitive math:

If you have a stack of 100 scrolls, and you have a 50% chance for them to succeed - when using up that stack, what are the chances you'll have 5 in a row fail?

Answer: Over 80%. And there's even a 46% chance you'll see TWO streaks of 5 (or more) failures in a row in that same stack.

Lesson - you should expect to see 5 failures in a row. Even 6 failures in a row during your stack of 100 is more likely than not. By the time you've used up 10 stacks, you should expect to have seen a streak of 9 failures in a row. Probability of winning/losing streaks is complicated, but bottom line - if the dice are fair, streaks will happen.

Gambler's Fallacy is very easy to fall for, even when you know better.
A lot of players also don't realize that arcane spell failure affects scrolls (and is rolled seperately). And if I remember right, if you're not a certain percentage over 100 on UMD, a one will always fail.
• 07-26-2013, 11:14 AM
Wipey
http://imageshack.us/scaled/medium/577/ez9h.jpg
Improved cleric dilly 2 ( 50 % on hjeal scrolls ), ftw.
As been said you can have 95 % chance yet you fail when you need it the most.
Or fail 10 shards with 75% chance in a row when levelling crafting :)
But of course if raise can make a difference between success and failure, go for it even with 10 %.
• 07-26-2013, 11:56 AM
Oxarhamar
I carry scrolls of all kinds at 75% chance
I carry the following scrolls always Invisibility, Jump, Greater Heroism, Heal, Raise Dead, Teleport.

I generally start casting these around 75% chance and I tend to have pretty good results.

I know some have stated that they fail at scrolls and at crafting at 75% over and over but that's not the case for me I have pretty good luck with my dice rolls.

Heal scrolls in particular even at 75% chance beat the heck out of drinking cure critical pots.
• 07-26-2013, 06:21 PM
eonfreon
Quote:

Originally Posted by FrancisP.Fancypants
Gambler's Fallacy is very easy to fall for, even when you know better.
A lot of players also don't realize that arcane spell failure affects scrolls (and is rolled seperately). And if I remember right, if you're not a certain percentage over 100 on UMD, a one will always fail.

You're not remembering correctly. If you have a 39 UMD and you need a 40 to succeed on a scroll, you cannot fail even on a 1. Most people would think you have a 95% chance, but you add that "1" to your UMD, so you actually have a 100% chance and cannot fail on a 1.
• 07-26-2013, 06:32 PM
mobrien316
Quote:

Originally Posted by MeliCat
Just met another arti without fairly important scrolls (we won't go into which scrolls and why exactly and in which situation but anyway...). They had a UMD of 26 and the particular scroll that it would have been SERIOUSLY USEFUL for them to have used at that point of time has a UMD 36.

Now in my confusion I do remember that for a long time I remember thinking while learning this game "oh it's not 100%". It took a while for the penny to drop that that doesn't matter. That a 50% chance is 1 in 2 chances for the scroll to activate. A 75% chance is 3 in 4 chances, 12% is 1/8, and even 10% being 1 in 10 is still worth a shot and mostly likely worth it if you have a stack of 100 of the particular scroll.

The wiki says it semi clearly: "Scrolls can have less than a 100% chance of working even in normal use. If the character also has UMD trained, the better chance of success is used. " I'm one of those people who likes practical examples as per the paragraph above.

http://ddowiki.com/page/UMD

So you gave him the scrolls for free and he refused to even try to use them because his chance to succeed was less than 100%?

Wow, he seems like a tool.
• 07-26-2013, 08:54 PM
K_0tiC
Quote:

Originally Posted by MeliCat
Just met another arti without fairly important scrolls (we won't go into which scrolls and why exactly and in which situation but anyway...). They had a UMD of 26 and the particular scroll that it would have been SERIOUSLY USEFUL for them to have used at that point of time has a UMD 36.

Now in my confusion I do remember that for a long time I remember thinking while learning this game "oh it's not 100%". It took a while for the penny to drop that that doesn't matter. That a 50% chance is 1 in 2 chances for the scroll to activate. A 75% chance is 3 in 4 chances, 12% is 1/8, and even 10% being 1 in 10 is still worth a shot and mostly likely worth it if you have a stack of 100 of the particular scroll.

The wiki says it semi clearly: "Scrolls can have less than a 100% chance of working even in normal use. If the character also has UMD trained, the better chance of success is used. " I'm one of those people who likes practical examples as per the paragraph above.

http://ddowiki.com/page/UMD

So you died and it's the puggers fault for not raising you? :p

Also it only needs a UMD score of 35+dice :p
• 07-27-2013, 12:28 AM
droid327
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nibor
Answer: Over 80%. And there's even a 46% chance you'll see TWO streaks of 5 (or more) failures in a row in that same stack.

Gotta jump in just about that point....at any given point (ie, when you actually need them) the odds aren't so dire-looking:

(0.5)^5 = .03125, so only a 3.125% chance of failing five "coin flip" casts in a row.

Also, I don't think you set up your null hypothesis right: if there's a 96.875 chance of not failing 5 in a row, then over the course of any 96 rolls (since you cant fail 5 in a row on the first 4):

(96.875)^96=.0475, a 4.75% chance of any 5 failing in a run of 100.
• 07-27-2013, 03:24 AM
ZeebaNeighba
Quote:

Originally Posted by droid327
Gotta jump in just about that point....at any given point (ie, when you actually need them) the odds aren't so dire-looking:

(0.5)^5 = .03125, so only a 3.125% chance of failing five "coin flip" casts in a row.

Also, I don't think you set up your null hypothesis right: if there's a 96.875 chance of not failing 5 in a row, then over the course of any 96 rolls (since you cant fail 5 in a row on the first 4):

(96.875)^96=.0475, a 4.75% chance of any 5 failing in a run of 100.

That would actually be the chance to not fail 5 in a row at all. You have to subtract from one to get the chance to fail 5 in a row.

Though it's 3:20 AM here, I'm not exactly thinking straight, so I can't quite determine if that's as simple as the calculation needs to be, since these streaks are not independent of each other. The last four of the streak before are the first four of the next streak.

That and if the chance was 95.25%, that's well enough over 80% that I'm sure Nibor would have beefed up his number, so under that assumption one (or both) of you are missing something.
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