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Morroiel
10-15-2015, 04:21 AM
This is a thought experiment, which has yielded applicable results for the actual game. I set out to optimize pure warlock sustainable single target dps.

BUILD: Max Cha (drow), put rest of points in int {obviously con would be preferred for a real character}

Skills: max spellcraft

Feats: max, emp, wiz:pl, completionist, quicken, heighten, spell focus: evoc
Epic Feats: epic eldritch blast, charisma, epic spell focus: evoc / charisma (argument could be made for ruin instead)
Destiny: Light Spell power, arcane eldritch blast

The above is none negotiable - ruin has been excluded as this isn't sustainable though the burst is quite nice on an actual build.

Pact Choice:
Fey - excluded because it evasion and sonic powered - you lose out on 9% crit from epic past life and have a guaranteed 5% chance for 0 pact damage. This is non-trivial.
Fiend - excluded for practicality reasons (much easier to gear GOO and also fire immunity of current end game means in the fights that actually matter you will be doing 0 pact damage). This is non-trivial for end game characters.
GOO - selected

Pact Choice is none negotiable - you must go GOO if you want the top of the line single target dps on a warlock in end game content. {Fey and Fiend both offer utility that is valued at zero in this post because that utility does not contribute to dps}

Epic Destiny Choice:
Shiradi - possibly higher dps when you get the right tea, however proc rates are really only high for aoe. Relying on tea of the queen isn't sustainable (also I'd have to do empirical tests to determine dps so I'm not even sure its higher with the right tea).
Draconic - Bonus to pact damage is nice however - bonuses to light damage is greater due to the damage in blasts being weighted (~ 2:1 in favor of the base damage).
Magister - there are reports that alacrity should work - however during my own empirical tests I have determined that magister doesn't alter blast rate - or at least not at its supposed amount | I might have to reevaluate if this ever changes / gets fixed.
Exalted - Increase to spell power - capstone gives you 100 spell power alone and its easy to charge + 3 dc to make pact damage land more. Capstone is semi-sustainable (definitely sustainable in DOJ).

Destiny Choice is a little bit less clear cut but the resounding consensus and the above reasoning leads us (me and most of the people who play warlocks) to come to the same conclusion: exalted angel is the winner.

Epic Past Life Stances: Energy (9% crit), COTQ (procs), Skill Mastery (bonus to spell craft)
Iconic Past Life: MorningLord (light spellpower)

The above is non-negotiable clear cut winners. Again arcane alacrity doesn't seem to give its 10% increase in firing rate - this would be the better of the 2 if it got fixed (10% straight increase to dps of blasts - that would be huge).

Gear: Orb of Death (5% insight), TF Scepter / TOEE Scepter, DOJ bracers, DOJ necklace (sonic procs), Lantern Ring, DOJ cloak

Gear is far more complicated but I have listed out the general makings of optimal gear - these are the non negotiable parts - they will be used directly in calculations.

The above should all be rather straight forward (no complicated math necessary to derive these results).
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The below will be straight forward math but it will be math heavy (I will make the results at the end understandable to anybody who can't stomach the math).

Enhancement Optimization:

Tainted Scholar Capstone - This should be immediately obvious and irrefutable. 10% increase rate of fire, 60% increase to critical multiplier, +1d6 to blast
*critical multiplier is the best scaling of {crit multiplier, spell crit, and spell power}

Tainted Scholar T5 however offers only 1d6 increase to blast damage.

This leaves T5 Souleater or T4 Enlightened Spirit + dip into souleater open {ES T5 doesn't offer any single target dps}.

T5 souleater gives:
Consume (8d10)
Stricken (24d6)
25 acid spell power
25 light spell power
2d6 blast (greater hunger)
8% crit chance

T4 Enlightened Spirit:
6d6 bonus to blast (spiritual retribution and lvl 18 core)
10 Acid from capstone
30 light from capstone
30 light from T2/T3
12 acid from T2/T3

Dip into Souleater(8 points):
10 light spell power from 2 cores
10 acid spell power from 2 cores
4 light spell power from T1
4 acid spell power from T1
Consume (2d10)
Stricken (8d6)

T5 Souleater vs T4 Enlightened Spirit + Dip Souleater:
25 Light Spell Power + 25 Acid Spell Power + Consume (8d10) + Stricken (24d6) + 2d6 blast bonus + 8% crit chance
vs
74 light spell power + 36 acid spell power + Consume (2d10) + Stricken (8d6)+ 6d6 blast bonus

Stricken (24d6) vs Stricken (8d6) - triple base damage - obviously in favor of T5 souleater.

2d6 Blast Bonus + 8% crit chance + 25 acid/light spell power vs 6d6 blast bonus + 74 light spell power + 36 acid spell power:

Blast Base Damage = (crit modifier * crit chance + (1 - crit chance)) * (# of die) * (avg of die) * ((spellpower * 1.5 + 100) / 100)
Blast Pact Damage = (crit modifier * crit chance + (1 - crit chance)) * (# of die) * (avg of die) * ((spellpower * 1.5 + 100) / 100) * (save factor)
**Assume save factor is 1 as it doesn't change between the two options - realistically this has a max at .975, but usually closer to [.8,.9]

T5 SE base calc: (2.6*.4+.6) * (17) * (3.5) * {(500*1.5+100)/100} = 829.43

T4 ES base calc: (2.6*.32+.68) * (21) * (3.5) * {(549*1.5+100)/100} = 1026.30

T5 SE pact calc: (2.6*.49+.51) * (14) * (2.5) * {(300*1.5+100)/100} = 343.42

T4 ES pact calc: (2.6*.41+.59) * (14) * (2.5) * {(311*1.5+100)/100} = 328.34

1172.85 per blast vs 1354.64 per blast | T4 ES wins this by 181.79 damage per blast

T5 SE consume calc: (2.6*.4+.6) * (8) * (5.5) * {(725*1.5+100)/100} = 856.9 per tick = 428.45 dps

T4 ES consume calc: (2.6*.32+.68) * (8) * (5.5) * {(774*1.5+100)/100} = 209.73 per tick = 104.87 dps

SE wins by 323.58 dps per stack of consume (can stack up to 3 times)

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Resulting Inequality
323.58 dps * C vs 181.79 (damage per blast) * R (Blasts per second)
R is defined as the # of blasts fired per second
C is defined as the # of stacks of consume C = [0,3]

Souleater T5 is strictly better when:
C * 1.78 > R
For C = 0, inequality is false
For C = 1, inequality is true when R < 1.78 blasts per second
For C = 2, inequality is true when R < 3.56 blasts per second
For C = 3, inequality is true when R < 5.34 blasts per second

Empirically tested R seems to fall somewhere in between (1.5, 3.5), someone should be able to narrow this down even further if needed.

Results:
This means that there are two maximums:
1) Short Fights - ES build is better (e.g. in the end fight of DOJ)
2) Long Fights - SE build is better (e.g. abbot / FOTP / etc)

*Note: This assumes the 20% vuln. proc of the SE build is negligible due to other party members providing it for the ES build.
**Note: Reiterating this calculation with various spell powers yields different numerical results but very similar conclusions (inequalities are for the most part rigid).
***Note: Although an aura + burst build might be a contender, the 1 blast every 2 seconds severely limits its potential - as even if you count the bursts as the equiv. of 2 eldritch blasts each, that equates to 8 blasts every 8 seconds (w/ the aura).

Conclusion: If you want to maximize your blast dps, go TS cap + T4 ES + SE dip. If you want to maximize your overall single target dps, go TS cap + T5 SE. Realistically, these results support going TS cap + T4 ES + SE dip as this offers vastly more utility in terms of PRR/MRR/etc while doing better dps than its counterpart up until 10 seconds into the fight (though avg dps will persist to be higher till a little after 10 seconds).

*As an aside: the proposed "balance changes" by Sev will shift these results in favor of the ES build - as it relies less on consume and more on eldritch blast (consume is getting a 16% reduction in power, whereas blast is getting a ~10% reduction in power). Once the changes go live, I will redo this work but instead using a matlab script to print off inequalities for a variety of different spell powers.

Morroiel
10-15-2015, 04:22 AM
Reserved

cru121
10-15-2015, 05:18 AM
***Note: Although an aura + burst build might be a contender, the 1 blast every 2 seconds severely limits its potential - as even if you count the bursts as the equiv. of 2 eldritch blasts each, that equates to 8 blasts every 8 seconds (w/ the aura).
I wonder how bad would be an aura+burst build with ES capstone and T5; souleater up to 5th core; and 8 AP in TS (10 crit, Utterdark Blast). Looking at the math, probably pretty bad. One benefit of aura build is that you have time to cast various spells/SLA or melee after you fire your burst/blast/consume/stricken (or heal, or raise your allies, or shield block, or whatever needs doing).

slarden
10-15-2015, 07:40 AM
The devs removed diversity completely with the upcoming warlock changes.The top dps (single and aoe) will be Tier 5 Soul Eater with Tainted scholar tier 4 and taking the tainted scholar capstone. While Tier 5 soul eater with tier 4 enlightened spirit with enlightened spirit capstone will still be a compelling and effective build, it will lag behind souleater/tainted scholar as far as dps slightly.This build was already about the same dps as a well-built ES /TS build prior to the change, but had less survivability. With the change it won't be possible to optimize dps and survivability around the same setup. My initial thinking is to give up 3 conjuration dc for the 3 shield feats to get 45 PRR and go with T5 Soul Eater for wave with the TS capstone. The 45 prr should offset the loss of hp and prr from ES.I will try both builds along with my current build to compare, but ultimately I can figure out how to survive without ES so I am sure I will end up maxing dps as I always do. I will just miss my current setup since it gives me 130 PRR, 1200 HP and near max dps for a warlock - I am missing 2 pieces of gear to max it out with the pre-nerf #s.

AtomicMew
10-15-2015, 04:37 PM
Thanks for the number crunching. It echoes my initial impression as well. With the upcoming balance changes, it seems to heavily favor T5 souleater. Eldritch wave got a huge (unannounced) buff recently with a much shorter cast time, and it is pretty big damage. Personally, I am running TS capstone + T5 souleater.

PS: sonic spells do get the +9% crit from arcane past lives, not that it makes any difference on the calculations.

AtomicMew
10-15-2015, 04:41 PM
With the change it won't be possible to optimize dps and survivability around the same setup.

Loss of survivability will probably have to be made up by more balanced gear choices. Also TS/SE builds have greater range, so movement will probably play a greater role for upcoming warlock builds.

slarden
10-15-2015, 06:33 PM
Loss of survivability will probably have to be made up by more balanced gear choices. Also TS/SE builds have greater range, so movement will probably play a greater role for upcoming warlock builds.

I am running ES Tier 5/Capstone with points in tainted scholar and souleater to give me all the free SLAs and optimize spell power. I have a standing 129 PRR with about the same MRR. 1200 hp and I have no survivability issues with the build itself at all - none. A little lag can kill me in some very difficult content because it throws off my heal timing. Getting a little lazy/sloppy can kill me, but if I am on my game nothing will kill me. I am not getting why people need 200 prr and 2000 hp with the con builds in US.

I am thinking, swap for a shield and add 45 PRR to offset the loss of PRR and hp from ES to go Tier 5 souleater and TS capstone. My dps will be very close to what it was pre-nerf and I've run warlock enough now that I can survive without the ES easy-button. My conjuration DC is high enough that I get significant damage mitigation from evards when dealing with mobs.

I think cha-dumping con builds will still have a place, but they are already lagging behind in dps they just have time on their side due to survivability. So they are at maybe 80% of the dps of a high dps warlock build and now they will be at maybe 65% as that build won't work with souleater.

Are you see any dps options that will come close to Tier 5 Soul Eater with TS capstone? I am not seeing anything else.