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View Full Version : Reduce loot table randomness



scoobmx
10-25-2012, 01:07 PM
In another thread I had made a suggestion that I think was largely ignored (maybe it wasn't really a suggestion as much as just analysis), but here goes again.

Hypothesis: It would be beneficial in quests where a low drop-rate item that is sought after potentially drops in many different chests (such as seals in certain quest series as well as named loot in Caught in the Web) for said item to be condensed down to dropping only in 1 chest with a drop-rate that equals the sum of the drop-rates of all the chests it could have dropped in.

Proof: Pulling loot in DDO follows a Bernoulli process, where for each chest that drops a given item, you have probability p of obtaining when you open it, as it calls a random number generator on the loot table. For n chests each having probability p of dropping this item, the chance of pulling exactly one of this item is:

C(n,1)*p*(1-p)^(n-1)

Where C(n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!) and this follows the binomial distribution. The mean, representing the average number of said item dropping in one run through, is n*p. The variance is n*p*(1-p). Comparing 2 cases where we keep the mean n*p constant, but change the number of chests n, we can show that the more chests there are, the higher variance loot drops are:

1 chest with rate p: mean is p and variance is p*(1-p)
2 chests with rate p/2 for each: mean is again p but variance is p*(1-p/2)
Continuing: since n*p is constant, the only part of variance that changes is the (1-p) factor, which continues to increase.

So the higher number of chests there are, keeping the mean drop rate constant, the more the game punishes unlucky people and rewards lucky people.

For reference, in a realistic case, you wouldn't mind pulling multiples either, so the probability of pulling AT LEAST one of said item would be:

1 - n*Integral(t^(n-1),t,0,1-p)

MsEricka
10-26-2012, 02:42 AM
Random loot is random.

ddobard1
10-26-2012, 02:47 AM
not signed

this game is about randomness!

fco-karatekid
10-26-2012, 08:40 AM
In another thread I had made a suggestion that I think was largely ignored (maybe it wasn't really a suggestion as much as just analysis), but here goes again.

Hypothesis: It would be beneficial in quests where a low drop-rate item that is sought after potentially drops in many different chests (such as seals in certain quest series as well as named loot in Caught in the Web) for said item to be condensed down to dropping only in 1 chest with a drop-rate that equals the sum of the drop-rates of all the chests it could have dropped in.

Proof: Pulling loot in DDO follows a Bernoulli process, where for each chest that drops a given item, you have probability p of obtaining when you open it, as it calls a random number generator on the loot table. For n chests each having probability p of dropping this item, the chance of pulling exactly one of this item is:

C(n,1)*p*(1-p)^(n-1)

Where C(n,k) = n!/(k!*(n-k)!) and this follows the binomial distribution. The mean, representing the average number of said item dropping in one run through, is n*p. The variance is n*p*(1-p). Comparing 2 cases where we keep the mean n*p constant, but change the number of chests n, we can show that the more chests there are, the higher variance loot drops are:

1 chest with rate p: mean is p and variance is p*(1-p)
2 chests with rate p/2 for each: mean is again p but variance is p*(1-p/2)
Continuing: since n*p is constant, the only part of variance that changes is the (1-p) factor, which continues to increase.

So the higher number of chests there are, keeping the mean drop rate constant, the more the game punishes unlucky people and rewards lucky people.

For reference, in a realistic case, you wouldn't mind pulling multiples either, so the probability of pulling AT LEAST one of said item would be:

1 - n*Integral(t^(n-1),t,0,1-p)

Where basic random loot is concerned, I really like the sheer randomness of the drops - at a minimum because of the humor factor - +5 Ghost Touch of Smiting is actually quite funny (where in the world are there incorporeal constructs)? Super rare items, I'd empathize, but random loot combinations are fun to me... my experience has been that it feels not random enough - almost like certain odd/useless combinations like above are pre-programmed to drop more than others (banishing of smiting anyone? Yah inevitables, but really?).

OldCoaly
10-26-2012, 09:04 AM
I don't see how such a change would add value. It's already pretty easy for a first life, unguilded only-character-on-server to get not just good but very good gear.

This seems to be a solution for a problem that doesn't exist.



I liked the lootgen items more before U14 and miss the old mechanism.

Prefixes and suffixes combinations that didn't compliment each other were the norm, not the rule. The absurd combinations were very entertaining.

Things like an Underwater Action necklace of Water Breathing RR:WF were fun to loot.

Items with very desirable prefix/suffix pairings weren't much harder to acquire prior to update 14 than they are now, but they felt more special because the noise of obviously not attractive items was much louder.

Now the good stuff doesn't seem that special.

The new lootgen mechanism doesn't matter, though, and a change in it wouldn't matter either.

For me at least, almost everything that can be deconstructed does get deconstructed. Out of 100 lootgen items, one might be kept for immediate or future use, 3 might be kept for auction, and the rest get converted to essences.

scoobmx
10-27-2012, 01:28 AM
do you people even bother to read the post? i clearly stated i was talking about specific, low-drop-rate items (mostly NAMED ITEMS) that drop from multiple chests, and gave examples of what I was talking about (CITW loot, VON seals)

Memnir
10-27-2012, 02:21 AM
Random loot is awesome.
I say make it more randomerized, not less.

donfilibuster
10-27-2012, 03:55 AM
The problem with this idea is it boils down to make it the sum of the various small chances.
I am no expert in statistics but afaik either way the chance would be about the same.

What changes is the convenience of going for the big chest instead of all the chests in the flagging quests.
The devs are not going to change the rates just to give rare items a higher chance.

Also assumes there's enough minor chests to make it worth having a single chance.
A better approach would be to just have more chests so each can drop a particular seal or shard.
The player would know the item is still rare but won't be diluted by having other seals or shard drop from the bunch.

However, the downside is the same, you'll make some of the chests farmable.
For packs like sands with lots of epic items devs will have to put the weaker ones on the easier chests.
(e.g. in the top floors of raiyum rather than in the treasure chamber, altough i believe it already works like that)

Feylina
10-27-2012, 04:57 AM
I always imagine that there is a clan of really evil dwarves out there that take great joy in spending hours and years crafting junk loot and dispersing it amongst the realms. Their greatest achievements to date i'd have to say is the featherfalling of featherfalling, the stat 4+ item with a clicky for +4 to the same stat, or my personal favorite the ghost touch of tendon slice.

dang those ebil dwarves.

OldCoaly
10-27-2012, 07:49 AM
do you people even bother to read the post? i clearly stated i was talking about specific, low-drop-rate items (mostly NAMED ITEMS) that drop from multiple chests, and gave examples of what I was talking about (CITW loot, VON seals)

I read your original post but admittedly skimmed the math and what came later.

Your words "(such as seals in certain quest series as well as named loot in Caught in the Web)" were not enough to make it clear to me that you were talking only about non-lootgen.

In fact, it seemed you added that as an afterthought and did not intend it to be the primary focus.

If I had seen "Raid Loot", "Named Loot" , or "Set Items", your intent would have been more clear the first time.



Having re-read the OP after you ask if anyone read the original post, it's a little more clear that you're specifically not discussing lootgen.


In that context, I think the current drop rates were carefully considered to generate specific and intended consequences.

I'm sure that whoever took the task of designing the drop rates looked at past practice, discussed it with at least one or two people who had some experience with these things from past raids, and probably even asked a Forum Moderator if there were any examples of rational discussions about Raid Loot Drop Rate Mechanics to skim.

Just because we think there's a problem doesn't mean it's not working as intended.