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View Full Version : Predictive AC- or a look under the hood



MarcusCleardawn
10-11-2012, 04:59 AM
Combat mechanics have changed so dramatically that it is very difficult to determine whether any particular piece of equipment or feat or enhancement is really worth the investment. Before the update, once your armor class achieved relevance, it was very easy to determine the value of each point of armor class, essentially 5% mitigation. Now, it seems, the only way to determine the value of any gear layout is to actually acquire the gear and check the tool tip display.

I'm reserving judgment on the new combat mechanics, but I would suggest that making the mechanics more transparent would be helpful.

1. Publish the mechanics in a meaningful way, i.e. provide the actual "defense chance" formula.
2. Publish a table of "Defense Chance", by level and AC.
3. Players frequently run content other than "at level." It would be nice to have some predictive indication of what the "defense chance" would be in those situations. Either add additional fields in "Defense Chance" like "Defense Chance at Level" Defense Chance on Hard, Defense Chance on Elite, etc. or provide a general rule of thumb like "Defense Chance is reduced by x% for each level above, and increased by x% for each level below."

blerkington
10-11-2012, 06:36 AM
Hi,

This is a good idea.

Thanks.

legendlore
10-11-2012, 06:46 AM
1. Publish the mechanics in a meaningful way, i.e. provide the actual "defense chance" formula.
2. Publish a table of "Defense Chance", by level and AC.
3. Players frequently run content other than "at level." It would be nice to have some predictive indication of what the "defense chance" would be in those situations. Either add additional fields in "Defense Chance" like "Defense Chance at Level" Defense Chance on Hard, Defense Chance on Elite, etc. or provide a general rule of thumb like "Defense Chance is reduced by x% for each level above, and increased by x% for each level below."

I agree, the tool tip as it is doesn't really help much at all. I'm definitely getting hit more in an level 21 elite quest (scales to 23) or a hard level 22 quest for that matter (I know elite is supposed to be an extreme challenge) than I am in an level 23 quest at normal.

This has made me wonder if at level doesn't mean quest level but instead the level of the monster I'm facing, but the tool tip is very unclear and could do with an look over.

Rawel_San
10-11-2012, 07:10 AM
They published the defense chance formula completely. The issue is that any type of tooltip
defense chance % is completely and utterly useless since it depends in an essential way on what mob and
on what difficulty you are facing. Just knowing the level of the quest will be of no use as the differences
in to-hit for mobs seem to easilly be upwards of 20.

The defense formula (otherwise also known as monster to-hit formula) is

(10.5+Monster to-hit)/(2*player AC) is the chance of the monster hitting.

To give an example:
suppose you have stalwart with 140 ac and a mob with 60 to hit (very low figure)

(10.5+60)/(2*140)=~.25 or 25% chance of being hit thus 75% mitigation

Same mob against a monk wtih 80 ac

(10.5+60)/(2*80)=~.44 or 44% chance of being hit thus 56% mitigation

How much extra mitigation per point of ac you get depends on the mob you are facing.

Assuming the mob has a to hit of B and your AC is A an extra point of ac is worth (a bit of math)

(10.5+B)/(2*A) - (10.5+B)/(2*(A+1))= (B+10.5)/(2A^2+2A)

that is 50(B+10.5)/(A^2+A)% extra mitigation. For those that don't like math all that much
let's look at the examples above.

For our stalwart getting an extra 1 AC gives him (against that specific mob with 60 to-hit) an
extra 50(60+10.5)/(140^2+140)=~.18 % chance to be missed (that . is not a mistake it really
is just about a fifth of a percent more mitigation).

On the other hand for our monk getting an extra 1 AC gives him (again against that one specific
mob) 50(60+10.5)/(80^2+80)=~.54 % chance to be missed (so about half a percentage more mitigation).


Of course these numbers will all change depending not only on the amount of AC you have but also
depending on the amount of to-hit the enemy has. Which is why the tool tips are mostly useless fluff.
Just my 2 copper,
Rawel

TPICKRELL
10-11-2012, 07:53 AM
...extra 50(60+10.5)/(140^2+140)=~.18 % chance to be missed (that . is not a mistake it really
is just about a fifth of a percent more mitigation).

On the other hand for our monk getting an extra 1 AC gives him (again against that one specific
mob) 50(60+10.5)/(80^2+80)=~.54 % chance to be missed (so about half a percentage more mitigation).
...

Minor clarifcation, it's at most .18 and .54%. If you have other damage mitigation (blur, dodge, ghostly, shadow fade, displacement. PRR) they further reduce the actual effective mitigation of one additional point of AC.

The damage mitigation tool tip for AC is flawed as well and would overestimate the effect of an additional point of AC for the same reason.

Rawel_San
10-11-2012, 08:05 AM
Minor clarifcation, it's at most .18 and .54%. If you have other damage mitigation (blur, dodge, ghostly, shadow fade, displacement. PRR) they further reduce the actual effective mitigation of one additional point of AC.

The damage mitigation tool tip for AC is flawed as well and would overestimate the effect of an additional point of AC for the same reason.

Right I was sort of assuming you factor that in afterwards, but if we're talking total effective mitigation, yes then it
might be less.

TPICKRELL
10-11-2012, 08:18 AM
Right I was sort of assuming you factor that in afterwards, but if we're talking total effective mitigation, yes then it
might be less.
I have no quibble at all with your post. Just thought that the clarification provides some context, that makes the information you provided a bit more actionable.

CaptainSpacePony
10-11-2012, 09:15 AM
... I'm definitely getting hit more in an level 21 elite quest (scales to 23) or a hard level 22 quest for that matter (I know elite is supposed to be an extreme challenge) than I am in an level 23 quest at normal.

While a quest on elite counts as +2 levels for XP, etc, it is not the same as merely being +2 levels for difficulty. I am going to throw a guess it's closer to +4 or 5.

Ape_Man
10-11-2012, 11:31 AM
Those % figures on your sheet are completely worthless. We need to actually know mob to-hits to determine real miss % and I cannot for the life of me figure out how to determine that.

it would be nice if the devs did a reveal on this, what's the worst that could happen, we might actually build more effective tanks?

redspecter23
10-11-2012, 11:42 AM
I have no idea what "at level" is and even if I did, there is a massive difference between a level 10 quest on normal (level 10) and a level 8 quest on elite (level 10). Even within those levels, mobs can have varying hit scores. I can get a general idea of how good my AC is by running content, but I have no way of knowing how an extra +1 here or there is really helping me. Absolutely... no... way. I require a more detailed breakdown of how my AC is helping in any given scenario and there are just way too many variables right now to have that.

At level 25 I can fairly easily get a 70% "at level" avoidance rate. Now if at level refers to level 23 elite content, then that's fine by me. I'll expect any effort I put into my AC at that point to have minimal gains, but if that 70% avoidance refers to level 25 normal content, then I can fully expect that raising my AC for the level 23 elite quest will yield greater returns that I initially figured. Too much thinking.

Ape_Man
10-11-2012, 11:46 AM
At level 25 I can fairly easily get a 70% "at level" avoidance rate. Now if at level refers to level 23 elite content, then that's fine by me.

it's not :)

I'm not sure what the formula is for EE content but EN/EH looks like mob to-hits are close to CRx2.

MarcusCleardawn
10-12-2012, 08:52 AM
If Ape Man's "rule of thumb" that BAB is 2x CR, then I guess I could build a table like that I suggested originally. But does anyone if that's a good estimate of BAB?