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View Full Version : Streak breaker request

Red_Knight
02-25-2009, 05:59 PM
This probably has been asked many times in the past. However I'm thinking the game needs some sort of miss streak breaker code. Why? Well I just looked at my combat log from yet another attempt to run the same dungeon. I've figured out the enemies have an AC of 15, and I have an attack bonus of +8. So rolling a 7 or higher hits.

That's the problem. Fighting one armored skeleton I counted seventy out of one hundred attacks having a natural 1 as the roll. And thirty of those swings were in a row. There were also ten rolls of a natural 3, and ten rolls of a natural 5. Out of one hundred attack rolls only ten attacks rolled a 7 or higher.

I have a paladin with an attack bonus of 10. Against things with an AC of 15, he too has a nasty tendency to roll a 4 or less for 20 attacks in a row. In fact, out of the last twenty times I've tried using his smite evil (a total of +18 to strike with it) it's landed exactly once when used against enemies with an AC of 15. And I only break it out usually if I'm missing a lot. Somehow enemies with an AC of 15 are effectivly almost impossible to hit because the game's to-hit calculations decide that 1 is a extremely common attack roll on a D20. I don't mind missing. I don't mind rolling ones. But rolling thirty in a row, and missing ninety times in a row is a bit much against 'low ac' enemies.

I'm sorry, but that sort of rips probability a new one. The odds of rolling a natural 1 thirty times in a row are so low, it's not even worth bothering to calculate. And yet I see this happen quite frequently. Once a 1 gets rolled, the game's engine starts rolling 5 or less consistently.

My suggestion is as follows. Add in code to help reset the probability. Another game dealt with this type of situation by adding in code to force a hit if the player or enemy has missed X times in a row. For instance, let's say an enemy has an AC of 20, and your attack bonus is 10. You should hit half the time. Out of every ten swings, five should be misses at most mathematically. So such code would force a hit after five misses in a row. Such code should only come into play with miss strings. If your chance to connect is 50%, then the code would only come into play if you've missed X number of times in a row.

I'm not sure how this would be coded for DDO however since it's based on AC bonus and Attack Bonus instead of a set percentage chance to hit vs defense which lowers that chance by a set amount. Just an idea from a rather frustrated player..

Impaqt
02-25-2009, 06:06 PM
30 1's in a row is screen shot worthy..... Sorry, but I just cant believe thats possible.

as for your paladin, you might need some Charisma... Or stop using Smite evil on non-evil targets. Your charisma Modifier gets added to your attack roll so if your at AB +10 against a AC15 mob, all you need is an 18 CHR to hit on anything but a 1.

Red_Knight
02-25-2009, 06:17 PM
30 1's in a row is screen shot worthy..... Sorry, but I just cant believe thats possible.

as for your paladin, you might need some Charisma... Or stop using Smite evil on non-evil targets. Your charisma Modifier gets added to your attack roll so if your at AB +10 against a AC15 mob, all you need is an 18 CHR to hit on anything but a 1.

As far as I know, they don't get much more evil then sentient undead. And my charisma on said pally is 19 currently. That's the thing, it is consistent 1's. The combat log even says that I rolled a 1+18 usually. As far as I know, the entire duality chain is filled with evil undead. That's the chain I've been trying to run. Sorry, but the combat logs are kind of hard to screenshot due to not only my missing, but the skelly's frequent missing my AC of 26 (with mage armor potion). I mainly know how many in a row it was cause I counted each and every 1 I rolled... Waiting for something other then a miss. Really stupid way to die when I should be able to hit them.

One RL statistical annomoly was in a game of risk I played though. Only happened that one time, but I had 1 soldier in the game hold off about 300 of my opponant's troops in one turn. Never pulled that sort of luck off again. That proved to me that such weird luck can happen, but I'm consistently unable to hit those armored skellies with a AB of 8+, and get my butt kicked because of it.

Deathseeker
02-25-2009, 06:21 PM
Gotta go with the "screen shot or it didnt happen" response here. 30 1's in a row? Something else must be going on...are you sure you are reading the combat log correctly? Because the way you are discussing it, this sounds like it isnt the first time you feel you've seen it...

Impaqt
02-25-2009, 06:25 PM
You can get quite a few swings into the combat log... WHen ya die... Just grab it and open it up as far as it will go and find a nice string of 1's....

Heck I'd be shocked to see more than 3 or 4 in a row.... What was that thing in AC Called though? the WI Flag or something? Character could be Cursed I guess....

Red_Knight
02-25-2009, 06:40 PM
Gotta go with the "screen shot or it didnt happen" response here. 30 1's in a row? Something else must be going on...are you sure you are reading the combat log correctly? Because the way you are discussing it, this sounds like it isnt the first time you feel you've seen it...

Your right, not the first time I've seen such events. Seems almost every time I fight armored skeletons in the duality chain they have an AC of 15, but even a +10 AB misses too freaking often. The 30 ones in a row, that's not usual, but rolling 6 or less a good 80+ times against a single skeleton, that does happen rather a lot on my monk. Some times I'll get a few good solid hits in fast, most of the time I'm swinging at him for several minutes even after discounting all his dodging. On my next attempt I'll screenshot the combat tab (assuming it happens again).

Mercules
03-04-2009, 02:19 PM
Gambler's Falacy

Because I rolled a "1" 30 times in a row, I can't roll a "1" on my next roll.

Guess what. Your chance of rolling a "1" on a D20 is 1 in 20 or 5%. This is true no matter how many 1s you have, or have not rolled. So it is possible to have very streaky results.

Statistics only work over VERY large numbers.

Missing_Minds
03-04-2009, 03:06 PM
You can get quite a few swings into the combat log... WHen ya die... Just grab it and open it up as far as it will go and find a nice string of 1's....

Heck I'd be shocked to see more than 3 or 4 in a row.... What was that thing in AC Called though? the WI Flag or something? Character could be Cursed I guess....

I wouldn't be Impaqt. I've done a yhatzee of 1's MANY times in this game. While I never have with dice in real life. But I've only rolled 20's a max of 3 in a row maybe half as often as Iv'e done 4-5 ones in a row.

Turnbine took a sample and found their sample to be flat. Honestly, I believe them when they say that their random number generator is flat.

HOWEVER, the issue I have is the methodology of what they do. Now they have never come out and tell us what they do, and they probably can't, so what follows is speculation on my part of what is happening.

1. The flat number generator creates a bank of numbers. We have how many people playing? It makes sense to have this to speed things up.
2. Per player call, this que of numbers is pushed out to the player who calls it, etc.
3. Player 1 gets bank numbers 1, 36, 255, 800, and 2938 out of that cue (for example) which results in a 5, 17, 2, 5, 10.

In other words, while the bank of numbers is flat, taking only random samplings to use for a player will NOT result in flat numbers for the player, hence really crappy streaks ARE very prone to happening.

Mercules
03-04-2009, 03:23 PM
There are a large number of "dice" being rolled for even a single party in an instance. What we see rolled is an extremely minimal sampling of all those "rolls" which means those other "rolls" might be averaging everything out to be flat.